Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition,banking fragility and foreign exchange

This article has two objectives: to study the 1997 episode of hyperinflation in Bulgaria, and to compare and contrast this analysis with the post-Keynesian theoretical approach. This approach highlights the role of three components observed simultaneously in order to understand the emergence of hyperinflation: a virulent distributive conflict; the presence of indexing mechanisms; and finally, flight from domestic currency into one or more foreign currencies. The article reveals that a transitional economy like that of Bulgaria in the 1990s may generate hyperinflation in the absence of any violent distribution conflict: the transition and the banking crisis engender inflation. The foreign exchange rate is decisive in the emergence of hyperinflationary dynamics (and therefore mistrust of domestic currency). This interpretation of hyperinflation is confirmed by an econometric analysis.     

The interaction of retail density and music tempo: Effects on shopper responses

Research examining the effects of store environment on shoppers has found that a number of atmospheric cues have significant effects on shoppers' cognitive, affective, and behavioral responses. To date, retail atmospheric cues have been studied in isolation, instead of simultaneously, like they occur in the retail setting. This study examines the interactive effects of two atmospheric cues—retail density and music tempo—and their impact on shopper responses within a real shopping environment. Based on the schema incongruity model, it is found that shopper hedonic and utilitarian evaluations of the shopping experience are highest under conditions of slow music/high density and fast music/low density. Significant main effects of music tempo are found for behavioral responses such as approach/avoidance tendency and extent of browsing behavior. The results underscore the need to examine interactive effects of atmospheric cues to better understand the impact of the store environment on shoppers. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Labor Markets and Monetary Policy

Headline employment numbers have been consistent with previous recoveries from recession. Behind the headlines, however, there are troubling data that suggest that the recovery of labor markets is weaker than what would be suggested by prior experience. In particular, labor force participation is weaker than expected, and the duration of unemployment has been longer. This paper describes the dimensions of the problems, their implications, and issues concerning whether the U.S. Federal Reserve could have done more to forestall them—particularly with respect to its Large Scale Asset Purchases program.     

Advertising by Medical Professionals—A Healthy Outlook

The opening up of the professions to advertising does not yet include the medical profession, and the author argues that this exclusion is unwarranted. Far from being against the public interest, he suggests that patients are not only capable of using more information, but that improvements in medical practice will flow from this. The experience of the legal—and other professions—following the relaxation of advertising rules is discussed together with the problems arising. The conclusion is that advertising by the medical profession is worth at least a trial and that liberty to advertise be extended to consultants and hospitals.     

Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances

This study examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) for the carbon emission allowance market within the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during the Phase I and the Phase II, using both daily and weekly data over the 2005–2009 period. We analyze the MDH for spot prices negotiated on BlueNext, European Energy Exchange and Nord Pool along with futures prices negotiated on BlueNext and European Climate Exchange, using the new variance ratio tests developed by Kim (2009) and the generalized spectral test proposed by Escanciano and Velasco (2006). For the Phase I, the results show that the spot price changes of these three markets are predictable, suggesting the possibility of abnormal returns through speculation, except during the period April 2006 to October 2006, namely after the compliance break and before the ECs of stricter NAP II. Finally, we find that the CO₂ spot and futures price changes are unpredictable during the Phase II because we failed to reject the MDH based on both daily and weekly data. Thus, these markets are found to be weak-form efficient.     

Notes on some present day Questions regarding Mortality

Abstract

In the absence of any definite development of actuarial science in Great Britain which would be a suitable subject for this paper I considered that the most useful course would be to discuss some of the problems which are at present exercising my own mind, and no doubt the minds of many of my colleagues. Probably, many of these questions are akin to others which arise in other countries, so that their discussion at a meeting such as this may prove of mutual interest, while even if they are peculiar to ourselves, a disclosure of our doubts and difficulties will indicate the directions in which future developments may be expected. I must, however, emphasize that any views expressed are purely personal, and do not in any way pretend to represent a consensus of British actuarial opinion. Throughout this paper only Ordinary (as opposed to Industrial) business in considered.