中国证券市场价格波动与宏观经济协同性的实证研究

理论上，证券市场常被称为国民经济的“晴雨表”。本文选取工业增加值、广义货币供应量（M2）、消费者景气指数和国房景气指数等宏观经济指标，深入考察了宏观经济与沪深两市股价走势之间的关系。结果表明，在样本期内股价指数波动与宏观经济变量之间不存在协整性特征，中国证券市场与国民经济之间尚未呈现出稳定的长期均衡关系，证券市场并未发挥“国民经济晴雨表”的功能。这也表明，中国证券市场的宏观协调效率还有待于进一步提高。     

基于公平与效率均衡的城乡和谐

已有的对城乡和谐发展问题的研究大多将注意力集中在城乡和谐发展的途径方面,却忽视了对城乡和谐衡量标准的研究.本文从公平与效率统一(均衡)的视角来解析城乡和谐的标准以及城乡和谐演进的机制,并构建了一个基于公平与效率均衡的城乡和谐发展模型.该模型揭示,城乡和谐是公平与效率均衡的函数,市场机制与政府制度的相互配合共同促进城乡和谐发展.     

国际代工模式下的本地产业空心化危机研究——基于长三角的实践

改革开放以来,我国沿海地区经济发展的模式可以归结为国际代工模式。在比较优势渐失以及产业演进规律的共同作用下,产业转移不可避免,如果长三角仍旧保持原有的代工模式,那么该地区就有出现产业空心化的危险。因此,发展本地企业,将制造业本土化以及处理好发展传统制造业和高新技术的关系是实现长三角产业结构升级和避免产业空心化的关键。     

An effective going concern prediction model for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development

The purpose of this study is to construct a two-stage effective and innovative going concern prediction model to predict going concern doubt for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development. Samples of this study are the companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange or the Taipei Exchange, totalling 196 companies and including 49 companies with going concern doubt and 147 normal companies (with no going concern doubt). The data are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and the Market Observation Post System during the period from 2001 to 2016 (totalling 16 years). This study adopts a two-stage way to construct the going concern prediction models. In Stage I, the traditional statistical method of stepwise regression (SR) and the data mining technique artificial neural network (ANN) are applied to select the important variables. In Stage II, two decision tree algorithms (data mining techniques): classification and regression tree (CART) and C5.0 are used to establish the prediction models. The results show that the SR + CART model has the highest going concern prediction accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 87.42%.     

西部经济和生态环境互动模式:产业互动视角的分析

西部地区生态环境的脆弱性决定了西部地区在工业化过程中不能走"先污染、后治理"的发展模式,而应该强化经济与生态环境的互动发展.产业互动是经济与生态环境互动发展的重要组成部分,产业互动的思路是按循环经济的理念推进产业结构优化,依据比较优势原则发展西部特色产业作为依托点,以建立生态工业园作为产业互动的新载体.     

基于农业非点源污染控制的流域综合管理对策

流域综合管理是从整体上控制农业非点源污染、协调流域上下游环境经济社会发展、实现流域农业可持续发展的有效途径。本文以福建九龙江流域为例，通过分析农业非点源污染产生的系统过程、分布特征、控制环节、制约因素、控制步骤等内容，探讨以不同等级汇水区为单位实行流域综合管理的必要性，阐述了组成流域综合管理体系的经济、环境、社会政策措施。     

诗不能尽 溢而为书——历代书论与文论的相互贯通和影响

东坡有云：“诗不能尽，溢而为书，变而为画，皆诗之余。”虽然将文学与书法分出先后关系似有失偏颇，然而这位集文学家与书法家为一体的大文豪却一语道出了书法与文学紧密的内在联系。     

我国海洋经济发展的若干思考

海洋经济是人类开发和利用海洋资源、获取海洋产品的经济活动。海洋经济已经成为我国国民经济新的增长点。我国海洋经济发展迅猛，但同时也存在许多问题。文章认为，海洋经济实质上是海洋生态经济，是陆地生态经济向海洋的延伸；海岸带的合理开发和利用是实现海洋经济健康和持续发展的关键；应开展海洋资源与环境价值核算，调整和修正海洋经济综合评价指标，以反映海洋资源的耗竭和环境退化；应加强海洋经济省的建设；海洋经济的发展要注重观念、运行模式、新技术和机制等的创新，强调平衡发展战略与非平衡发展战略的有机结合。     

Further development and sustainable utilization mode of grassland tourism resources: a case study of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Tourism resources are important foundation for the development of tourism industry. Grassland is not only a kind of important resource but also a great attraction to visitors. Therefore, the integrated development and sustainable utilization of grassland tourism resources are of great significance. This paper, based on the analysis of literatures and the current problems existing in grassland tourism, summarizes the speciality of grassland tourism development, deals with the problem of speciality, and raises the modes of regional development, product development and management. This paper takes Inner Mongolia, the famous grassland tourism destination as example and carries out empirical research. Based on the status quo of grassland tourism resources in Inner Mongolia, this study analyzes the character- istics of grassland tourism resources, the necessity and feasibility of integrated development, then proposes the following suggestions: idea for development, mode of development, regional cooperation, tourism products development, espe- cially the three modes of development based on the resources conditions - the mode of relying on market, the mode of combination aggregation and the mode of relying on quality.     

拖欠农民工工资现象的成因及法律对策

拖欠农民工工资问题目前已成为社会普遍关注的焦点,如何维护农民工的合法权益也成了各级政府以及学者探讨的论题。文章从社会、法律制度、农民工自身等角度分析了该现象的成因,并针对各成因提出了相应的法律对策。