Debt rescheduling and the choice between bonds and loans for LDCs' foreign debt

This paper examines less developed country (LDC) borrowers' choice of financing methods. I devleop and test the hypothesis that ex-ante consideration of rescheduling affects LDC borrowers' choice between bonds and commercial loans. Banks can monitor and distinguish between permanent and temporary shocks, while bondholders cannot. Therefore, debt rescheduling based on the nature of economic shocks is feasible with loan financing. Our empirical findings indicate the debt rescheduling is considered exante in LDC lending. In addition, default risk and contract size affect the choice of financing instruments.     

Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

Book Reviews

W.T. Woo, B. Glassburner and Anwar Nasution, Macroeconomic Policies, Crises, and Long-term Growth in Indonesia, 1965–90, Comparative Economic Studies, The World Bank, Washington DC, 1994, pp. xiii + 216. Paper: $13.95.

Hal Hill (ed.), Indonesia's New Order; The Dynamics of Socio-Economic Transformation, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1994, pp. xxxv + 364. Paper: A$29.95.

J. Thomas Lindblad (ed.), New Challenges in the Modern Economic History of Indonesia: Proceedings of the First Conference on Indonesia 's Modern Economic History, Jakarta, October 1–4, 1991, Programme of Indonesian Studies, Leiden University, Leiden, 1993, pp. viii + 306.

Thee Kian Wie, Explorations in Indonesia's Economic History, Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, 1994, pp. xv + 187.

Nancy Lee Peluso, Rich Forests, Poor People: Resource Control and Resistance in Java, University of California Press, Berkeley, 1992, pp. xv + 321.

Effendi Pasandaran, Agus Pakpahan, Edwin B. Oyer and Norman Uphoff (eds), Poverty Alleviation with Sustainable Agricultural and Rural Development in Indonesia, Published jointly by the Center for Agro-Socioeconomic Research (CASER) (Bogor), and the Cornell International Institute for Food, Agriculture and Development (CIIFAD) (Ithaca), Bogor 1992, pp. vi + 233.

Eric Thorbecke and Theodore van der Pluijm, Rural Indonesia: Socio-Economic Development in a Changing Environment, IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) Studies in Rural Development no. 3, New York University Press, New York, 1993, pp. xxix + 360.

Niels Mulder, Inside Southeast Asia: Thai, Javanese and Filipino Interpretations of Everyday Life, Duang Kamol, Bangkok, 1992, pp. xiii + 178.

M.C. Ricklefs, War, Culture and Economy in Java, 1677–1726: Asian and European Imperialism in the Early Kartasura Period, ASAA Southeast Asia Publications Series no. 24, Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 1993, pp. xi + 425. A$29.95.

Ken Young, Islamic Peasants and the State: The 1908 Anti-Tax Rebellion in West Sumatra, Yale Southeast Asia Studies Monograph 40, Yale Center for International and Area Studies, New Haven, pp. xviii + 361.

Saya Shiraishi and Takashi Shiraishi (eds), The Japanese in Colonial Southeast Asia, Translation Series, Translation of Contemporary Japanese Scholarship on Southeast Asia, vol. 3, Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, 1993, pp. 172.     

营运资本能够平滑公司资本性投资吗?——基于产权性质和金融发展的经验证据

在我国依靠投资推动经济增长的发展模式中,为了防止经济大起大落需要保持投资的稳定,笔者结合公司产权性质和金融发展考察了营运资本管理在保持公司资本性投资稳定中的作用。研究结果表明,营运资本能够平滑公司资本性投资,在融资约束更为严重的民营企业这种平滑效果更为显著;金融发展弱化了营运资本平滑公司资本性投资的效果,这种弱化作用在民营企业中更为显著。笔者的研究证实企业营运资本管理的必要性,为解开民营企业在融资难的现实中依然保持不断发展的困惑提供新的研究思路,为金融发展如何缓解企业融资约束问题提供微观层面的经验证据。     

Foreign versus domestic institutional investors in emerging markets: Who contributes more to firm-specific information flow?

Using a large sample of firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange over 1998–2007, this study investigates whether and how trading by foreign and domestic institu...     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

The Logic of History and Leadership: Anselm's Analogs

Sweeney (2003) has stated that Anselm of Canterbury produced a paradoxical understanding: God is both inaccessible and obvious (p. 17). The current article proceeds analogically from Anselm's works to a consideration of whether Leadership Studies and the Social Sciences in general can access the obvious omnipresence of History. Finding that neither Leadership Studies nor the other Social Sciences can access that which is obvious, it then extends, in an Anselmian paradox, to discuss the inevitable use of History in Leadership Studies.