Nonlinear Taylor rules in Central Eastern European countries

This study applies sequential panel selection method (SPSM), proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) Chortareas, G., and G. Kapetanios. 2009. “Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels.” Journal of Banking and Finance 33: 390–404.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], to investigate to test the validity of Taylor rules to assess the nonstationary properties of the convergence of the real exchange rates for 10 Central Eastern European countries. The SPSM can be used to decompose a panel of real exchange rate series into two groups: a group of stationary series and a group of nonstationary series. We identify the stationary processes in the panel and demonstrate that Taylor rules holds for 7 of the 10 countries studied. These results imply that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary policies in Central Eastern European economies are highly influenced by external factors originating from the United States. Additionally, our findings highlight that their real exchange rate convergence is a mean reversion toward equilibrium values of Taylor rules in a nonlinear manner.     

住房抵押贷款提前偿付率的宏观影响因素分析

本文从宏观视角,运用多元线性回归模型和半参数模型等对我国个人住房抵押贷款组合提前偿付率的影响因素及其作用机制进行了实证研究。研究发现货币市场中长期贷款利率的提高,会增加借款人再融资成本,从而降低提前偿付率;资本市场作为借款人的收入来源之一与提前偿付率之间存在正相关关系;家庭人均净收入与提前偿付率的关系是非线性的;此外,与国外研究一致,房价和累计提前偿付额也会影响提前偿付率。     

乌克兰危机与中国的选择

乌克兰危机的爆发,有极其复杂的国内因素的原因。同时,它更是以美国为首的西方和俄罗斯在地缘政治上博弈的结果。乌克兰危机对国际形势的影响虽然不如舆论界预期那么大,但它可能会影响美国＂重返亚太＂战略的部署和进度。中国应当冷静观察,沉着应对。在始终坚持＂以经济建设为中心＂的基础上,坚定既有原则立场,强调尊重独立国家的主权和领土完整,坚决反对干涉内政,同时也要积极有所作为,为政治解决乌克兰危机,发挥独特的大国作用。     

基于分类最优原理的小企业信用风险评价

基于分类最优原理进行小企业信用风险评价,即以违约样本和非违约样本的重心距离最大为目标函数,以指标的三角模糊熵及变异系数组成的指标权重区间为约束条件,确定指标的组合权重,评价小企业信用风险状况。应用实例结果表明:利用该方法评价小企业的信用风险,能够更好地区分违约客户与非违约客户,使模型的判别精度有所提高。     

居民个人理财工具持有状况分析及理财规划——以镇江为例

随着中国市场经济体制的确立和发展,特别是金融业的发展,居民个人理财工具越来越多,且仍呈发展趋势。本文对理财工具进行了对比,重点将各理财工具的优缺点进行比较分析,并就镇江市居民理财工具持有现状通过调查问卷进行调查研究,最终,对单薪家庭、老年人、中年人和营业主、未婚青年等提出理财规划建议。     

我国农业保险现状与农业保险制度供给

我国对农业保险的潜在需求量巨大,但我国农业保险的供给严重短缺.主要原因是农业保险制度的缺失.必须加强农业保险法律法规建设,开展多层次的农业保险,完善财政补贴制度,以推进我国农业保险制度的建设.     

Transplanting Social Capital to the Online World: Insights from Two Experimental Studies

The recent proliferation of computer networks has stimulated the emergence of thousands of online communities. Facebook, which has grown to 175-million users in five years and recently surpassed megasite MySpace to become the world's largest social networking site, is a classic example. As the importance of online communities continues to grow, a good understanding of their success factors for building and sustaining a community becomes crucial.

In this article, we apply social capital theories to examine the interactions among individuals and trust building at the initial development of an online community. Specifically, we postulate that offline social capital can be transplanted into an online community (small or large) to foster the development of trust and social norms that make a community thrive. We conduct two experimental studies: one in the context of real-world, small-scale online communities, and the other in the context of computer-simulated large-scale online communities. Results from these studies provide strong support for our proposition. We interpret these results and discuss their implications and contributions to theory and practice.     

Demarketing as a differentiation strategy

Demarketing discourages consumers from buying. This paper shows that demarketing can be a profitable alternative when differentiation through product improvements is not cost effective. The impact of differentiating demarketing on profit, market share, consumers, and total welfare is investigated.This research began while Hess was visiting MIT's Sloan School of Management and was finished while visiting University of Haifa; he thanks both for their support.     

社会事业家理论评析

1980年代末以来,关注民间组织卓越领导人的社会事业家理论开始建构.领袖-特质理论认为社会事业家是以其对社会使命的不懈追求和强烈的伦理整合性来促成社会价值的最大化.建构主义理论认为社会事业家嵌入特定的组织结构和规则当中,并致力于创造新的制度或改造既有制度.社会事业家有四种理想形态:传统的创业型社会事业家、传统的拓展型社会事业家、自给创业型社会事业家和自给拓展型社会事业家.我国应从理念到制度层面培育社会事业家.     

试论农业科技发展的规律性

本文从逻辑和历史相结合的角度,论述了农业科技发展作为一个过程所具有的三个方面的规律性,即：①生活资料需求、生产资料需求、生态环境需求和社会文化需求等多样化的社会需求是推动农业科技发展的主要动力;②清除或缓解生产要素配置中的“瓶颈”制约,是农业科技发展的突破口;③提高由社会生产力和自然生产力构成的农业生产力的整体水平,是它业科技发展的落脚点。