Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003     

MANAGING VENDOR INVENTORY IN A DUAL LEVEL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Collaborative arrangements among members of the supply chain have received a great deal of interest in recent years as a means of reducing costs. One such arrangement is vendor managed inventory (VMI). VMI allows the vendor to make decisions concerning the quantity and timing of deliveries to the retailer. Such an arrangement offers the potential of a more efficient supply chain by removing the negative effects of retail ordering policies. A thorough review of the literature was conducted to identify factors likely to impact the performance of a VMI partnership. Computer simulation was used to study the effects of these factors from both the vendor's and retailer's perspectives. The results lend insight into the performance of VMI and guidance for managers as to the environments in which VMI is most effective.     

AN EVALUATION OF PROCESS‐ORIENTED SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORKS

Supply chain management (SCM) is implemented by integrating corporate functions using business processes within and across companies. Several process‐oriented frameworks for SCM have been proposed but only two of these provide sufficient detail to enable implementation. We evaluate the Supply‐Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) framework and The Global Supply Chain Forum (GSCF) framework using four criteria and identify their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

The Contingent Value of Responsive and Proactive Market Orientations for New Product Program Performance*

While the benefits of being market oriented are largely accepted, a group of scholars and managers remain skeptical. Marketing scholars have sought to counter the criticisms leveled against market orientation (MO) by arguing that it has both responsive and proactive dimensions. However, few studies have empirically examined the complexity of the effects of these dimensions on firm performance. Drawing on theories of resource‐based advantage and organizational search behavior, this article advances understanding by arguing that responsive and proactive market orientations have curvilinear effects on product development performance, that their interaction may be positively related to product development performance, and that their effects on new product program performance are moderated differentially by the organizational implementation conditions and marketing function power. Survey results of 175 U.S. firms indicate support for most of the hypotheses. Specifically, whereas responsive MO has a U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance, proactive MO has an inverted U‐shaped relationship with new product program performance. Contrary to the arguments presented here, the interaction of both orientations is negatively related to new product program performance. This study finds that both orientations are needed; however, new product program performance is enhanced when one is at higher level and the other is at lower level. Finally, responsive MO is only positively related to new product program performance under specific conditions such as when strategic consensus among managers is high. On the other hand, the positive effect of proactive MO on new product program performance is further strengthened when learning orientation and marketing power are high. Overall, this study suggests that the effects of responsive and proactive MO on new product program performance are more complex than previously theoretically argued and empirically examined.     

谈我国信用标准的方案设计

信用标准为征信机构的设施建设、技术和操作提供了规范,对征信产品质量提出了明确的要求,必将对我国征信行业的发展产生重要影响。借鉴国际经验,加快信用标准化工作并把握好标准的设计是当前的一项重要任务。     

房地产融资渠道分析

由于国家银根收缩，房地产融资难度增大，加上中国房地产金融体系尚未完善，融资渠道狭窄，在一定程度上限制了我国房地产业的发展。房地产业需要新的融资渠道，如信托、基金、债券等取代传统的银行贷款融资模式。针对新的市场现状，各房地产企业必须加强资本运作能力，扩大融资渠道，创新金融产品。     

Managing and financing metropolitan public services in China: experience of the Pearl River Delta region

Under China’s current fiscal policies and inter-governmental relations, it is a significant challenge to finance and deliver public services across jurisdictions. This challenge was met in the Pearl River Delta region in southern China with a collaborative governance approach. Directives from higher-level governments and horizontal inter-city fiscal arrangements were successfully combined to deliver public services. Effective networks should be developed to improve co-ordination and collaboration in delivering cross-jurisdictional public services.     

从三因素模型看行为金融学

法玛和法兰奇三因素模型 1953,马科维兹(Markowitz)在一定的经济模型假设下得出了均值一方差的有效市场模型,并初步建立了CAPM的基础;后来,Sharpe(1964年)、Lintner(1965年)和Black(1972年)引入了表征每种证券风险的β值,并提出了著名的CAPM模型.在CAPM模型中,股票的收益率水平用其收益率的期望表示,而其风险则用β值表示.     

百年农民观念变与不变的经济学分析

近百年以来,或因政权变更、或因现代化建设,农村土地资源的占有使用支配等发生变化,附着在其上的观念也发生变化：被剥夺意识强化、宿命等传统意识逐渐淡化和稀释、阶级意识填补了传统意识稀释而留下的空间、工业观念深入人心、传统小农意识之壳中不断增添新内容。而有些制度则没有改变或虽改变却承载的意识不变,附着其上的观念则变化不大：宗族意识、均平意识、宿命意识、循环意识、贵土贱农意识等仍然存在。农民观念的现代化,最重要的是农民生活于其中的经济制度的现代化。不触动农民生活于其中的经济制度,被思想运动清除掉而成为历史的东西将会卷土重来。     

监狱电子政务信息安全调查及改进方案

本文针对全国监狱电子政务信息安全方面问题,采用样本法,选取全国较典型监狱进行研究,收集了当前我国监狱电子政务在信息安全方面的现状、不足等信息,并进一步研究、提出了针对硬、软件及工作人员的几点可行的改进方案。