Explaining momentum profits with an epidemic diffusion model

We show that information diffusion is a function of its dissemination and assimilation. Whereas dissemniation is a function of observable factors such as volume and price volatility, assimilation is dependent on unobservable factors such as the usefulness and reliability of information. We find that buying low volume (or low volatility) past losers and shortselling low volume (or low volatility) past winners generates a positive net return across the entire sample period and especially during bear markets. Second, buying high volatility past winners and shortselling high volatility past losers generates a positive net return, especially during bear markets.     

谈我国信用标准的方案设计

信用标准为征信机构的设施建设、技术和操作提供了规范,对征信产品质量提出了明确的要求,必将对我国征信行业的发展产生重要影响。借鉴国际经验,加快信用标准化工作并把握好标准的设计是当前的一项重要任务。     

振兴东北老工业基地与内蒙经济发展区域协作的基本思路

东北三省和内蒙古东部组成的东北经济区,是我国最早形成并在结构上相对完整的大经济区,有着区域经济协作的天然条件和深厚基础。在振兴东北老工业基地的战略规划和实施中,要以区域经济一体化思想为指导,站在地区分工与协作的高度,分析和研究振兴东北老工业基地与内蒙古经济发展的相互关系,区域协作的阻滞性因素、协作的主体领域以及推进三省一区区域经济协作的总体措施,以实现要素区域间优化配置,从而加快振兴东北老工业基地的进程,使东北大经济区成为我国第四经济增长极。     

Microeconometric models of infrequently purchased goods: An application to household pork consumption

The double-hurdle and infrequency-of-purchase models are generalized with the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation in the dependent variable. The resulting specifications feature more flexible parameterization and error distributions than the untransformed models. Using the 1987–88 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey data on household pork consumption, a nonnested test suggests that the IHS double-hurdle model provides better characterization of the data-generating process than the IHS infrequency-of-purchase model but the elasticities derived from these models are similar. Own-price effects on the probability and level of consumption are negative and significant, but the elasticities are small. Income and cross-price effects are not significant. Household age composition, education, gender of meal planner, and race are among the demographic variables that affect consumption.     

FDI对东道国就业的直接效应和间接效应--基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的分析

在FDI发展历史的早期,就有学者关注FDI对东道国就业的直接效应和间接效应问题。1994年和1999年的《世界投资报告》从不同的角度对这一问题进行了较全面的概括和总结。本文在此理论基础上,利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,分析了FDI对东道国就业的直接效应、短期间接效应和长期间接效应,并给出了FDI对东道国就业的影响因素,以及各因素之间的关系。得出的结论可以为政府在不同阶段制定相关政策提供相应的理论依据。     

Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions

Public investment constitutes one of the main instruments of regional policies. The existence of a direct link between infrastructure and regional income per capita is usually accepted. Literature also describes a positive effect of public investment on private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to provide new empirical evidence on this latter relationship for the case of Spanish regions over the period 1965–1997 using panel data methodology. The results show a positive effect of productive and social public investment (especially in education) on private investment. The spillover effects generated by the productive infrastructures located in other regions do not seem to encourage the private investment in neighbouring regions. Public consumption and interest rate exert a negative influence on private capital accumulation. These results are robust to changes in the econometric specification.     

中国固定资产投资实证研究模型综述

在利用中国学术期刊全文数据库(CNKI)进行文献检索的基础上,总结归纳出中国固定资产投资实证研究集中在五个方面:固定资产投资总额预测,宏观经济多部门动态模型,固定资产投资对经济增长影响分析,固定资产投资效果及滞后效应分析,固定资产投资地区差距分析.并对相应的模型和基本结论进行概述.     

How to reform China’s fiscal system?

ABSTRACT

As the population aging, China’s government expenditures, including general fiscal expenditure, healthcare and social security expenditure, will grow more rapidly than government revenues, tending to elevate government debt. Local governments undertake overwhelming 85% of total general fiscal revenue and are responsible for healthcare and social security, and their debt has been growing. Fiscal reforms are imperative, including tax reforms, the structure of government spending reforms, social security reforms, healthcare reforms, local public finance reforms, and central and local government’s fiscal relationship reforms. This paper will explore the fiscal challenges China faces and discuss how to reform the fiscal system to cope with these challenges.     

基于Repast平台的城市交通系统仿真建模研究

提出了采用基于Agent的仿真建模方法为研究人员提供了城市交通系统研究新的思路，Repast平台则可以支持研究人员对复杂适应系统快速地建模。介绍了Repast仿真平台的结构、主要类库及建模步骤，并结合城市交通系统中提供交通信息服务的实例，简要阐述了使用Repast仿真平台对城市交通系统进行建模的过程。