Forecasting the region’s household income and demand by the input-output model (Case study of the Republic of Bashkortostan)

Methods of interrelated forecasting of the regional outputs of individual branches, household income, and consumption are considered. The instrument for the analysis and prediction for the parameters of the region’s economic system is a closed input-output model based on endogenous indicators of household income and demand.     

On the efficiency of sampling with varying probabilities and the selection of units with replacement

Summary In this paper the efficiency of sampling with varying probabilities is being compared with the efficiency of some alternative methods, such as simple random sampling, ratio estimate, regression estimate, difference estimate, and stratified sampling with proportionate allocation. The variance formula of the estimated arithmetic mean in the case of sampling with varying probabilities (3) was transformed into (5) and (6) by expanding (3) in Taylor series and the comparisons between the above methods are obtained in Table 1. It was also shown that similar comparisons are possible with multi-stage designs.

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Zusammenfassung Die Wirksamkeit des Stichprobenverfahrens mit ver?nderlichen Wahrscheinlichkeiten wird verglichen mit der Wirksamkeit einiger anderer Verfahren, u.z. der uneingeschr?nkten Zufallsauswahl mit einfacher Hochrechnung und bei Verwendung der Verh?ltnis-, Regressions- und Differenzensch?tzung und der geschichteten Auswahl mit proportionaler Aufteilung. Zu diesem Zweck wurde die Formel für die Varianz des gesch?tzten arithmetischen Mittels im Fall des Verfahrens mit ver?nderlichen Wahrscheinlichkeiten (3) mithilfe einer Taylor-Entwicklung in (5) und (6) transformiert. Die Ergebnisse des Vergleichs sind in Tabelle 1 gegeben. Abschlie?end wird gezeigt, da? ?hnliche Vergleiche auch mit mehrstufigen Verfahren m?glich sind.

     

Managing The Volatility Of Gaap Earnings

Abstract

The adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 97 (SFAS 97) eliminated the “lock-in” concept introduced in SFAS 60. Since many of the actuarial assumptions used in the calculation of the deferred acquisition cost (DAC) asset are difficult to predict over an extended period of time, “dynamic unlocking” was a sensible solution. Although this “dynamic unlocking” keeps the assumptions in line with recent experience, it comes at a cost—increased volatility of GAAP earnings. Some of the causes of this volatility are warranted since it accentuates the effects on earnings due to certain changes in the underlying experience. Other causes of this volatility may be unwarranted because of a misapplication of the principles underlying SFAS 97 and SFAS 120 or the manner in which changes in experience were reflected. In addition, most analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to increase when earnings are better than expected. Conversely, analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to decrease when earnings are worse than expected. Often the amortization of deferred acquisition costs behaves in a manner contrary to their expectations. This article analyzes what causes this volatility, explains why the amortization can behave contrary to expectations, and suggests several techniques for minimizing these unwarranted results.     

DELAYED OVERSHOOTING AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE PERSISTENCE IN AN IMPERFECT INFORMATION MODEL

Recent studies have pointed out that monetary shocks in sticky price models cannot generate real exchange rates that exhibit delayed overshooting and are highly persistent. This paper demonstrates that such exchange rate dynamics can be generated by incorporating incomplete information about the true nature of the monetary shock into a standard New Keynesian model of a small open economy.     

Competitiveness, resources, and capabilities: empirical evidence from retail banking

This research aims to identify and measure bank employee perceptions of the determinants of competitiveness in terms of resources, skills, and capabilities within the retail banking sector. All the 40 branches of a leading Portuguese bank—the Caixa Geral de Depósitos—operating in two Portuguese districts were surveyed. Our results show that bank competitiveness differs according to performance evaluation, human resource (HR) planning, the system of incentives, and managerial motivation. They also demonstrate that human capital is a source of success in the business of banks, which relies heavily on stable and enduring relationships with customers. The study also provides recommendations for retail bank managers seeking to refine their HR strategies as a means of improving their competitiveness.     

Knowledge Synthesis and Innovative Logistics Processes: Enhancing Operational Flexibility and Performance

Research results are presented providing an empirical examination of the impact of knowledge synthesis and innovative logistics processes on operational flexibility. The research is theoretically grounded in the resource‐based view of the firm, augmented with the knowledge‐based view. Knowledge synthesis and innovative logistics processes are proposed as key resources in the development of an important logistics capability: operational flexibility. A structural model analysis of survey data collected from logistics executives supports the proposed relationships and indicates that innovative logistics processes can lead to greater operational flexibility. Operational flexibility is also shown to lead to higher levels of logistics performance.