Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

基于高校教师职业特点的激励机制探析

在对高校教师激励机制现状分析之后,针对高校教师的职业特点,提出了高校教师激励机制模式:薪酬激励、社会保障计划、参与激励、竞争激励、组织文化激励、工作激励。     

Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels

The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved.     

我国商业银行私人银行业务的发展现状与对策

随着我国富裕阶层队伍的不断壮大,我国私人银行业务显示出巨大的市场潜力,中外银行因此展开了激烈的竞争。但是,我国商业银行发展私人银行业务也面临着诸多制约因素。因此,我国商业银行应在市场细分、产品的研发与创新、品牌建设、组织架构、专业人才的培养、外部环境建设等方面采取切实措施,以促进私人银行业务的发展     

加入WTO对我国会计服务业的影响

公共领域内由会计公司和注册会计师职业(以下简称CPA)提供的所有服务统称为会计服务。会计服务其范围在不断地扩大。但是总的来讲,可以分为两大类,即保证服务和非保证服务。我国加入世界贸易组织后,我国的会计服务业作为WTO《服务贸易总协定》(以下简称GATS)重要内容之一,其国     

A market model of analysts’ opinions to explain changes in the dispersion of opinions

The demand for and supply of analysts’ opinions in this model yield an equilibrium that demonstrates how the information content of the opinions reacts to changes in exogenous parameters. The model also shows how changes in the parameters make analysts’ opinions more or less dispersed; for example, a decline in investor risk aversion, a decrease in market volatility, and an increase in information costs can lead to analysts’ opinions becoming more similar. Recognizing how exogenous factors can affect the supply and demand of analysts’ opinions gives additional insights into questions concerning what may appear to be herd behavior by analysts and also the relationship between forecast dispersion and information content. (JEL: G29, C71)