WORLD OUTLOOK

Events in the Gulf have finally brought an end to the world economic boom of the last eight years. The oil price shock itself is only partly responsible for the downturn. The previous tightening of monetary policy in the face of inflationary pressures and the end of a rapid period of credit and asset price expansion had severely weakened the ability of some economies to respond to the shock. This is reflected in the diversity of response, most obviously in the United States where Fed fine tuning and the credit crunch have already weakened the economy. The rise in oil prices has led to a sudden collapse in consumer confidence and a swift cutback in output. Although we do not expect the recession to be deep, the financial problems will delay recovery. The Japanese economy was already in financial difficulties before the shock, although the real economy was stronger and here we expect a sharp deceleration from almost 6 per cent growth last year to around 3.5 per cent. In contrast the German economy, partly shielded by the substantial appreciation of the DM over the last year, has been affected less by the oil price shock and we expect the consumer and investment boom to continue this year as the economies merge. This provides a welcome boost to other European economies.     

Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes

This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one‐quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range of real and financial leading indicators, several parsimonious one‐quarter‐ahead models are developed for the GDP regimes, with model selection based on the SIC criterion. A real M4 variable is consistently found to have predictive content. One model that performs well combines this with nominal UK and German short‐term interest rates. The role of the latter emphasises the open nature of the UK economy.     

Managing New Product Design and Development: an Anglo-German Study

This article reports the results of a study of innovation and product development at 245 manufacturing sites in the UK and Germany. It examines the relationship between design and performance and the competitiveness of the UK and Germany in design and manufacturing. Overall, few sites reached "world-class" standards - 9% in Germany and 3% in the UK, although many sites were not far below these standards.     

A modified logit model for time series with an application to the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms in Australia

The modified logit model (Amemiya and Nold, 1975) is generalised to the case where the error term is autocorrelated. The asymptotic distribution (as n →∞ and T →∞) of a feasible GLS estimator of β is derived. Tests of linear restrictions on β and the significance of ρ are presented. The results of the applied work suggest that the factors which explain the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms, as reported in the tendency survey conducted by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Westpac Banking Corporation, include historical inflation rates of up to 7 quarters and capacity utilisation. First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  The first draft of this paper was written while the author was on study leave at the Department of Econometrics, University of Sydney, Australia.     

Ombudsman schemes in the United Kingdom's financial sector: The insurance ombudsman,the banking ombudsman,and the building societies ombudsman

The problems facing consumers in pursuing complaints against suppliers through the courts are well known and have given rise to the development of alternative strategies. This paper considers the development and use of one such strategy — the ombudsman — in dealing with the complaints of consumers against insurers, banks and building societies. The decisions to create these schemes can be seen against a background of the radical changes in the financial markets during the 1980s. However, the practice of the different ombudsmen is also influenced by the history, rules, practices and commercial contexts of their respective industries. It is argued, for instance, that the ombudsmen have developed standards of fairness which enable them to step outside established law and practice. However, the extent to which each is willing to do this may depend on the history and legal context of the relationships which a particular sector has had with its customers.

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Ombudsmann-Regelungen im Finanzsektor Grobritanniens: Die Ombudspersonen für Versicherungen, für Banken und für Wohnbaugenossenschaften

Zusammenfassung Die Schwierigkeiten, die Konsumenten haben, wenn sie Beschwerden gegen Anbieter auf gerichtlichem Wege klären lassen wollen, sind gut bekannt und waren Anla\ für die Entwicklung alternativer Strategien. Der Beitrag behandelt eine dieser Alternativen — den Ombudsmann — bei der Behandlung von Verbraucherbeschwerden gegenüber Versicherern, Banken und Wohnbaugenossen-schaften. Die Entscheidungen, die zur Schaffung dieser Regelung geführt haben, sind vor allem vor dem Hintergrund der starken Veränderungen auf den Finanzmärkten in den 80er Jahren zu sehen. Dabei wird das praktische Vorgehen der Ombudspersonen von der Entstehungsgeschichte, von Gewohnheiten und Praktiken und vom wirtschaftlichen Zusammenhang ihrer jeweiligen Branche beeinflu\t. So haben die Ombudspersonen zum Beispiel Richtlinien für Fairne\ entwickelt, die ihnen auch Möglichkeiten au\erhalb der etablierten Bereiche des Rechts und der Praxis eröffnen. Allerdings hängt die Bereitschaft des einzelnen Ombudsmannes, solche Möglichkeiten zu ergreifen, von der Geschichte und dem rechtlichen Kontext der Beziehungen ab, die seine Branche mit ihren Kunden gehabt hat.

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The authors would like to thank VW-Stiftung which funded the project, of which an earlier version of this study formed a part: Southern Extension of the EC, Financial Services and Consumer Protection; as well as Magda D'Ingeo and Katrina Wilson, both of Brunel University.     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

The coexistence of transaction and relational marketing: Insights from the Chinese business context

Transaction and relational approaches to marketing have been promoted as alternative forms but recent evidence suggests that they may coexist. We explore this in the context of China. If firms operating in a highly relational society, such as China, exhibit transactional behavior, these two approaches must be compatible. We argue that Chinese values give rise to business practices consistent with both transactional and relational perspectives. These are summarized in six propositions for research. Theory building and managerial practice could benefit from thinking in terms of how elements from the two perspectives can be brought together rather than remain as alternatives.