Dodging Adverse Selection: How Donor Type and Governance Condition Aid’s Effects on School Enrollment

We employ AidData to test the effects of primary-education aid on school enrollment. We argue that the problem of adverse selection complicates both the allocation and the effectiveness of aid. We hypothesize that bilateral donors ought to have greater freedom to condition aid on recipient governance quality than multilateral donors, which are often bound by institutional rules to provide aid more impartially. Compared to their multilateral counterparts, bilateral donors may have advantages in overcoming adverse selection, resulting in bilateral aid’s boosting enrollments to a greater degree. AidData’s extensive coverage of multilateral aid enables this analysis for up to 100 low- and low-middle-income countries from 1995 to 2008. Latent growth regression analysis suggests that, compared to multilateral donors, bilateral donors indeed condition their primary education aid on recipient control of corruption and that bilateral aid is significantly related to improved enrollments.     

"Thank God . . . I Thought for a Moment You Were Going to Confess to Converting to Socialism!": Gender and Identity in Deirdre McCLoskey's Crossing

"Thank God . . . I thought for moment you were going to confess to converting to socialism! 'critiques McCloskey's account of her transition from a heterosexual male professor of "Chicago school" economics to a female, "free-market feminist." McCloskey's account raises fascinating questions for all feminists regarding both one's definitions of gender, and the institutions and practices which reinforce gender boundaries. At the same time, McCloskey's account is found to be lacking in certain respects. For example, she pays insufficient attention to the implications of gender for rational-choice, free-market economic theories, and she insufficiently contextualizes her definitions of masculinity/femininity to a particular class and race in the late 20th century US.     

New evidence on the implied-realized volatility relation

We consider the relation between the volatility implied in an option's price and the subsequently realized volatility. Earlier studies on stock index options have found biases and inefficiencies in implied volatility as a forecast of future volatility. More recently, Christensen and Prabhala find that implied volatility in at-the-money one-month OEX call options on the S&P 100 index in fact is an unbiased and efficient forecast of ex-post realized index volatility after the 1987 stock market crash. In this paper, the robustness of the unbiasedness and efficiency result is extended to a more recent period covering April 1993 to February 1997. As a new contribution, implied volatility is constructed as a trade weighted average of implied volatilities from both in-the-money and out-of-the-money options and both puts and calls. We run a horse race between implied call, implied put, and historical return volatility. Several robustness checks, including a new simultaneous equation approach, underscore our conclusion, that implied volatility is an efficient forecast of realized return volatility.     

Consumption,housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle

How important are collateral constraints for reproducing salient features of the data? To address this question, we estimate two nested versions of a New Keynesian model: one with collateralized household debt and the frictionless version of the same model. Both versions of the model are fit to Canadian data using Bayesian methods. We argue that the presence of collateral constraints improves the performance of the model in terms of overall goodness of fit. Housing collateral helps to generate a positive correlation between consumption and house prices. Moreover, housing collateral induced spillovers boosted consumption growth during the housing market boom‐bust cycles of the late 1980s and early 2000s.     

Do tax subsidies for retirement saving affect total private saving? New evidence on middle-income workers*

We exploit exogenous variation from a pension reform in Denmark to estimate the effect of tax subsidies on total private saving. We present new evidence on individuals in the middle of the income distribution and show that a reduction in tax subsidies for retirement saving reduces total private saving. The reform changed the tax incentives for saving in the pension scheme that holds the highest tax advantage for middle-income workers in Denmark. We find that for each unit of reduced saving in this pension scheme, only 64 percent is substituted to other types of saving.     

Two sides of the same personality coin: An opportunity to refocus (un)ethical analysis

Prior ethics studies highlight the importance of understanding positive or negative leader personality characteristics to improve organizational outcomes. However, few studies combine both positive and negative leader personality characteristics, to unpack and guide ethics theorizations. This lack of methodological balance restricts how we perceive leader ethics, our understandings of organizational experiences, and therefore, our awareness of governance approaches. This study challenges the dominant ethics scholarly orthodoxy—which focuses on positive or negative leader characteristics—by combining self-determination theory and the Dark Triad perspective, to explore the plurality of ethical dimensions within organizational leadership. A case example is provided to highlight the need for this methodological awareness and four avenues of engagement are discussed to improve future organizational governance and ethics scholarship.     

A Simple Approach to Better Distinguish Real Earnings Manipulation from Strategy Changes*

Researchers typically infer real earnings management when a firm's operating and investing activities differ from industry norms. A significant problem with classifying deviations from industry averages as myopic earnings management is that companies can change their operating and investing decisions for strategic business reasons rather than to mislead stakeholders. Using principal components analysis, we systematically evaluate existing measures and develop a comprehensive real activities measure to better capture earnings manipulation. Our measure reflects (i) deviations from industry averages across multiple activities and (ii) other signals of manipulation. This approach is promising because, although there are many sources of abnormal activities, manipulation is more likely the cause when managers engage in multiple income-increasing abnormal activities that coincide with other signals that indicate an elevated risk of manipulation. This simple approach results in a metric that associates negatively with future operating performance and earnings persistence, yields high-power tests, and captures manipulation reasonably well across most life-cycle stages. Importantly, this approach performs better than the standard real earnings management metrics across all dimensions. Specifically, it generates the expected reduction in future earnings and reduced earnings persistence in 82% of the tests compared to 36% and 46% in common alternatives. Also, because this innovation does not require a long time-series or rely on future period realizations for classification, it can be useful in more research settings than other recent innovations in the literature.     

How do most low ETR firms avoid paying taxes?

Review of Accounting Studies - Evidence suggests a large proportion of profitable U.S. firms have low effective tax rates (i.e., an ETR between 0 and 10%). Despite widespread interest in how firms...     

Can short sellers constrain aggressive non-GAAP reporting?

Review of Accounting Studies - Prior research finds an association between short selling volume and aggressive non-GAAP earnings disclosures but does not explore whether increased short selling...