Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss

Based on the approach developed by Elliott et al. (2005), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price of oil tended to be larger than the loss they incurred when their forecast fell short of the price of oil. Accounting for the asymmetry of the loss function does not necessarily make forecasts look rational.     

The framing of product ideas in the making: a case study of the development of an energy saving pump

Research regarding work with ideas in industrial settings has predominantly treated ideas as rather stable ‘black boxes’. This article contributes a new understanding of idea work and seeks to expand our understanding of how a product concept is constituted and synthesised through socio-material interaction of organisational members and engagement in idea work. The article contributes a case study of the development process behind the energy-saving Alpha Pro circulator launched by the Danish pump manufacturer Grundfos. Based on an analysis of how organisational players engage in the controversial and shifting understandings of what seems to constitute a successful product, the article offers a new perspective on navigating the players’ ideas in the political processes of innovation. It suggests that navigation of technological frames can offer a new perspective to make explicit the implicated actors’ world views, including what they perceive as relevant problems and related strategies for solving them.     

Product development as reading and writing doings within sociotechnical practices: the reciprocity between engineers and artefacts

This ethnographic study aims at understanding how product development of wind turbine controls unfolds as ongoing engineer-artefact reciprocity. We adopt a Deweyan constructionist and Science-Technology-Society approach to contribute to product development and sociomaterial studies by emphasising the role of reciprocity between engineers' experience and artefacts through reading and writing doings. Reading doings involve texts such as specifications, minutes, sketches and components. Writing doings create/modify the same type of texts. In one project, convergent reciprocity enabled the development. Another project's development was blocked, restarted and completed internally at the producer. Enablers included repositioning of working practices, application of various artefacts/tools, heterogeneous engineers and creation of common ground. Constraints involved lack of openness, too malleable artefacts, no common ground and radical change of the development trajectory. The engineers' learning depends on these constraints and enablers. Three types of reciprocity occur: convergent, faded away and blocked.     

The role of permanent and transitory components in the fluctuations of Latin–American real exchange rates

Following the approach suggested by Engel and Kim (1999 Engel, C. 1999. Accounting for U.S. real exchange rates changes. Journal of Political Economy, 107: 507–38. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), we estimate the permanent and transitory components of the real exchange rates in four Latin–American countries for the period 1957:01 to 2002:04. Results suggest that transitory component is the driving force of the real exchange rates in Argentina and Mexico. A principal role of the permanent component is observed in the real exchange rates of Brazil and Chile. Estimates probabilities of the high-variance regime allow to identify the principal events happened in these countries. This information is closely related to nominal shocks and therefore, it explains the significant role of this component in these countries.     

Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time

We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as mixed sampling frequencies and ragged-edge data. First, we evaluate the theoretical gains of using data that are available promptly for computing probabilities of recession in real time. Second, we show how to estimate the model that deals with unbalanced panels of data and mixed frequencies, and examine the benefits of this extension through several Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability for the computation of real-time inferences of the US business cycle, and compare it with the alternative method of forecasting the probabilities of recession from balanced panels.     

The role of venture capitalist to enhance the growth of Spanish and Italian university spin-offs

The establishment of spin-offs to commercialise university knowledge/technology is a potential mechanism to promote economic and innovative development. Nevertheless, University Spin-Offs (USOs) are usually resource-constrained, especially in obtaining funding, limiting their growth. Venture Capital (VC) investors play an important role in the financing and the improvement of their managerial skills, which are critical for firm growth. This paper aims to explore both the effect of VC partners on the USOs’ growth and the cross-national differences in the role played by them. To study both issues, we empirically analysed 516 Spanish and 904 Italian USOs created by 50 Spanish and 57 Italian universities, respectively, and observed them between 2005 and 2013. The results showed different effects in the Spanish and Italian cases. While in Spain the presence of VC partners positively affects the USOs’ growth, in Italy there is not a significant effect. This evidence calls for systematic policies by public administrations and universities to foster USO growth.     

Understanding the adoption of new brands through salespeople: a multilevel framework

So far there has been scant empirical attention paid to the role of the sales force in the adoption of new brands in the early implementation stages. We test a framework of internal (sales manager and salespeople) brand adoption using an empirical multilevel study. Our findings suggest that the construct of expected customer demand (ECD) plays an important role in sales force brand adoption. First, ECD directly influences salespeople’s and sales managers’ brand adoption. Second, ECD serves as a cross-level moderator of new brand adoption transmission. We find the influence of sales managers’ brand adoption on salespeople’s brand adoption to be stronger when salespeople’s ECD is lower.     

On the role of consumer expectations in markets with network effects

We analyze the role of consumer expectations in a Hotelling model of price competition when products exhibit network effects. Expectations can be strong (stubborn), weak (price-sensitive) or partially stubborn (a mix of weak and strong). As a rule, the price-sensitivity of demand declines when expectations are more stubborn. An increase of stubbornness (i) increases (decreases) the parameter region with a unique duopoly equilibrium (multiple equilibria), (ii) reduces competition, (iii) reduces the conflict between consumer and social preferences for de facto standardization, and (iv) reduces the misalignment between consumer and social preferences for compatibility.