How price complexity takes its toll: The neglected role of a simplicity bias and fairness in price evaluations

Marketing managers commonly employ complex price plans. Surprisingly, limited and conflicting evidence reports how customers perceive and react to complex prices. This study examines perceptions about price complexity and shows that customers tend to prefer simple prices. Two experimental studies show that perceived price complexity negatively affects customer perceptions of price fairness and influences product choice because customers negatively evaluate the transparency of the firm's pricing practices and infer higher total prices. Customers comparing alternate offerings may therefore prefer simple over complex prices, even when the latter are less expensive. Study results suggest limiting price plan variations positively affects customer inferences about transparency and fairness, and thus customer choice.     

Information dissemination on intellectual capital in mergers and acquisitions: purchase price allocations,press releases and business press

In order to reduce information asymmetries in relation to a firm's current decisions and long-term strategy, firms must consistently provide information to stakeholders. This paper investigates intellectual capital (IC) information disclosed in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) provided through three different disclosure channels (voluntary press releases, related newspaper articles and subsequent mandatory corporate disclosures in the notes to the financial statements). For a sample of 215 randomly selected US and European M&As, we analyse 215 press releases, 1025 newspaper articles and 215 purchase price allocations. Our findings suggest that IC disclosure in press releases is not perceived as informative and qualitative forward-looking IC information in voluntary corporate disclosures appears to lack credibility. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate interdependencies across the three disclosure channels. The business press seems to filter IC information provided in press releases. The amount of IC disclosure in the notes to the financial statements is positively associated with prior IC disclosure in newspaper articles, but negatively associated with IC disclosure in press releases. The managements of acquirer firms appear to pay attention to news coverage and public opinion. However, both voluntary and mandatory corporate disclosures appear to substitute rather than complement each other.     

The systematic risk of corporate bonds: default risk,term risk,and index choice

In this paper, we empirically examine the systematic risk of corporate bonds in the Euro area. Based on a unique sample of 784 bonds from 1999 to 2010, we show that the systematic risk of constructed bond portfolios and individual bonds—measured against three different market indices—depends on credit quality, term risk, and index choice. A significant increase in systematic risk for lower-rated bonds is observed following the start of the financial crisis. In multi-factor models, bond portfolios load significantly on default and term risk, which are included as additional factors. Conducting Fama and MacBeth cross-sectional tests, we find that default and term risk are priced with economically relevant premiums that range from 0.35 to 0.62 % per month. Our results are robust to the inclusion of characteristics such as rating and time to maturity.     

Collaboration decisions on disruption recovery service in urban public tram systems

This research focuses on the decisions on recovery services to deal with short-term disruptions in public tram systems. The disruption recovery approach used in Munich, Germany - the best service acclaimed by the public, is adopted as the basis to examine whether to collaborate with a taxi company to provide the recovery service and how to price to compensate the service. The two involving parties’ decision functions with the taxi’s average arrival time as the leading decision variable are formulated and analyzed. Both theoretical and numerical sensitivity analyses are conducted to shed lights on the critical factors affecting the decisions.     

Consumption-based equity valuation

Using a CCAPM-based risk-adjustment model, we perform yearly valuations of a large sample of stocks listed on NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ over a 30-year period. The model differs from standard valuation models in the sense that it adjusts forecasted residual income for risk in the numerator rather than through a risk-adjusted cost of equity in the denominator. The risk adjustments are derived based on assumptions about the time-series properties of residual income returns and aggregate consumption rather than on historical stock returns. We compare the performance of the model with several implementations of standard valuation models, both in terms of median absolute valuation errors (MAVE) and in terms of excess returns on simple investment strategies based on the differences between model and market prices. The CCAPM-based valuation model yields a significantly lower MAVE than the best performing standard valuation model. Both types of models can identify investment strategies with subsequent excess returns. The CCAPM-based valuation model yields time-series of realized hedge returns with more and higher positive returns and fewer and less negative returns compared with the time-series of realized hedge returns based on the best performing standard valuation model for holding periods from 1 to 5 years. In a statistical test of 1-year-ahead excess return predictability based on the models’ implied pricing errors, the CCAPM-based valuation model is selected as the better model. Using the standard series of aggregate consumption and the nominal price index, a reasonable level of relative risk aversion, and calibrated growth rates in the continuing value at each valuation date, the CCAPM-based valuation model produces small risk adjustments to forecasted residual income and low continuing values. Compared with standard valuation models, it relies less on estimated parameters and speculative elements when aggregating residual earnings forecasts into a valuation.     

Analysis of Systemic Risk in the Insurance Industry

In this paper, we discuss the systemic relevance of the insurance sector. Systemic risk is defined as the propensity of a financial institution to be undercapitalised when the financial system as a whole is undercapitalised. By the law of large numbers, traditional lines of insurance with idiosyncratic non-catastrophic risks cannot be systemic. On the contrary, undiversified insurers specialised in activities whose insured risks are highly correlated with GDP are systemic. In the life insurance sector, some contractual clauses such as unhedged minimum guarantees and free options to surrender raise the chance of systemic relevance. On the contrary, life insurers satisfying the classic solvency capital requirements contribute to the liquidity of financial markets thanks to the long-termist approach of their portfolio management. Finally, using historical data in the U.S. on the contribution of different sectors to the aggregate volatility of the economy, we show that investment banking is almost twice as volatile as aggregate GDP, while insurance is one fifth as volatile as aggregate GDP. The insurance sector thus appears to be a stabilising force of the economy.     

The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs?. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities.     

Wie die Materialengpässe den Arbeitsmarkt treffen

Wirtschaftsdienst - Although industrial production in Germany picked up again significantly with the recovery from the Corona crisis, supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products...