Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP*

In this article, we merge two strands from the recent econometric literature. First, factor models based on large sets of macroeconomic variables for forecasting, which have generally proven useful for forecasting. However, there is some disagreement in the literature as to the appropriate method. Second, forecast methods based on mixed‐frequency data sampling (MIDAS). This regression technique can take into account unbalanced datasets that emerge from publication lags of high‐ and low‐frequency indicators, a problem practitioner have to cope with in real time. In this article, we introduce Factor MIDAS, an approach for nowcasting and forecasting low‐frequency variables like gross domestic product (GDP) exploiting information in a large set of higher‐frequency indicators. We consider three alternative MIDAS approaches (basic, smoothed and unrestricted) that provide harmonized projection methods that allow for a comparison of the alternative factor estimation methods with respect to nowcasting and forecasting. Common to all the factor estimation methods employed here is that they can handle unbalanced datasets, as typically faced in real‐time forecast applications owing to publication lags. In particular, we focus on variants of static and dynamic principal components as well as Kalman filter estimates in state‐space factor models. As an empirical illustration of the technique, we use a large monthly dataset of the German economy to nowcast and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We find that the factor estimation methods do not differ substantially, whereas the most parsimonious MIDAS projection performs best overall. Finally, quarterly models are in general outperformed by the Factor MIDAS models, which confirms the usefulness of the mixed‐frequency techniques that can exploit timely information from business cycle indicators.     

Part-time work, school success and school leaving

In this paper, we analyse part-time employment of teenagers still in full-time education, their academic performance, and their school leaving decisions. Our estimation strategy takes account of the possible interdependencies of these events and distinguishes between two alternative states to full time education: entering the labour force full time and going on to further training. We model this decision in a flexible way. Our analysis is based on data from the UK National Child Development Study, which has an unusually rich set of variables on school and parental characteristics. Our main finding is that working part time while in full-time education has only small adverse effects on exam performance for females, and no effects for males. The effect of part-time work on the decision to stay on at school is also negative, but small, and marginally significant for males, but not for females. Other important determinants of exam success as well as the continuation decision are parental ambitions about the child’s future academic career.     

Catastrophe Bonds and Reinsurance: The Competitive Effect of Information-Insensitive Triggers

We identify a new benefit of index or parametric triggers. Asymmetric information between reinsurers on an insurer's risk affects competition in the reinsurance market: reinsurers are subject to adverse selection, since only high-risk insurers may find it optimal to change reinsurers. The result is high reinsurance premiums and cross-subsidization of high-risk insurers by low-risk insurers. A contract with a parametric or index trigger (such as a catastrophe bond) is insensitive to information asymmetry and therefore alters the equilibrium in the reinsurance market. Provided that basis risk is not too high, the introduction of contracts with parametric or index triggers provides low-risk insurers with an alternative to reinsurance contracts, and therefore leads to less cross-subsidization in the reinsurance market.     

Aims and problems of diversification

Notwithstanding the Importance attributed to international commodity agreements, the long-term solution to the developing nations’ economic problems must be sought in diversification. On this subject the HWWA-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung-Hamburg (The Hamburg Institute for International Economics) prepared a study for the Federal Ministry for Economics and Finance. The following article summarises the main results.     

über die Wirkung der Optionsbündelung auf die Ablaufplanung einer Variantenflie?fertigung Option bundling and its impact on operating mixed-model assembly lines

Bei der Optionsbündelung werden einzelne Ausstattungsmerkmale (Optionen) zu Paketen (Bündeln) zusammengefasst, so dass der Kunde, von einem Grundmodell ausgehend, durch die Auswahl unterschiedlicher Optionsbündel eine bestimmte Produktvariante konfigurieren kann. Im Mittelpunkt dieses Beitrags steht die Beantwortung der Frage, ob eine solche Optionsbündelung den Produktionsablauf positiv beeinflusst. Dabei richtet sich das Augenmerk auf die Produktionsform der Variantenflie?fertigung, die in der Endmontage variantenreicher Endprodukte (etwa in der Automobilindustrie) eine dominierende Stellung einnimmt. Eine umfangreiche computergestützte Evaluierung verdeutlicht einerseits den generell positiven Einfluss der Optionsbündelung und identifiziert andererseits im Rahmen der Betrachtung unterschiedlicher Bündelungsarten die kumulative Bündelung als besonders geeignet.     

Determinanten des deutschen Kreditzinsniveaus

Seit Mitte der 90er Jahre liegt das deutsche Kreditzinsniveau über dem Durchschnitt der EWU. Worauf ist diese Entwicklung zurückzuführen? Sind die deutschen Banken weniger effizient? Liegt der Zinsunterschied an den hohen Refinanzierungskosten? Gibt es in Deutschland mehr Kreditausf?lle, oder sch?tzen die deutschen Banken die Risiken realistischer ein? Dr. Stefan Sch?fer, 34, und Christian Weistroffer, 30, Dipl.-Wirtschaftsingenieur, arbeiten im Referat Banken, Finanzm?rkte und Regulierung von Deutsche Bank Research; Christian Weistroffer forscht au?erdem am Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt am Main. * Der Beitrag gibt die Meinung der beiden Autoren, aber nicht unbedingt diejenige des Center for Financial Studies oder von Deutsche Bank Research wieder.