The Common Agricultural Policy after 2013

In October 2011 the European Commission presented a set of legal proposals designed to make the Common Agricultural Policy more effective. Pending a debate in the European Parliament and the Council, approval is expected by the end of 2013. This Forum aims to identify the proposals?? shortcomings and to offer suggestions for improvement which the Parliament and Council can work to implement. The authors pay particular attention to the future of direct payments, CAP greening and rural development, as well as to the change in the decision-making rules which grants the Parliament more authority over the process.     

A quantitative turn in the historiography of economics?

ABSTRACT

Quantitative approaches are not yet common among historians and methodologists of economics, although they are in the study of science by librarians, information scientists, sociologists, historians, and even economists. The main purpose of this essay is to reflect methodologically on the historiography of economics: is it witnessing a quantitative turn? Is such a turn desirable? We answer the first question by pointing out a ‘methodological moment’, in general, and a noticeable rise of quantitative studies among historians of economics during the past few years. To the second question, all contributors to this special issue bring relatively optimistic answers by highlighting the benefits of using quantitative methodologies as complements to the more traditional meta-analyses of both historians and methodologists of economics.     

Current account sustainability in G7 and BRICS: Evidence from a long-memory model with structural breaks

In this paper, we extend the existing literature on current account sustainability by examining the relevance of long memory and structural breaks in modelling the dynamics of current account to gross domestic product (GDP) ratios in G7 and BRICS. Unlike standard unit root tests, which have low power, especially in cases where the series is characterized by a fractional process, the long-memory approach provides an exact measure of the degree of persistence. However, long-memory models are known to overestimate the degree of persistence of the series in the presence of structural breaks. We show that regime changes do exist in both the mean and trend of the current account to GDP ratios. Thus, we test persistence allowing for both smooth and sharp breaks. Our methodology also allows any number of sharp breaks, whereas standard unit root tests only permit either one or two breaks. Hence, our approach is more general and more robust to misspecifications caused by the omission of breaks than standard methods. We show that current accounts are sustainable in both groups of countries, with the G7 and South Africa displaying long-memory behaviour.     

On the proportionality of EU spatial ex ante coexistence regulations

The EU is currently struggling to implement coherent coexistence regulations on genetically modified (GM) and non-GM crops in all member states. While it stresses that any approach needs to be “proportionate to the aim of achieving coexistence”, very few studies have actually attempted to assess whether the proposed spatial ex ante coexistence regulations (SEACERs) satisfy this proportionality condition. In this article, we propose a spatial framework based on an existing landscape and introduce the concept of shadow factor as a measure for the opportunity costs induced by SEACERs. Our empirical findings led us to advance the proposition that flexible SEACERs based on pollen barriers are more likely to respect the proportionality condition than rigid SEACERs based on isolation distances. Particularly in early adoption stages, imposing rigid SEACERs may substantially slow down GM crop adoption. Our findings argue for incorporating a certain degree of flexibility into SEACERs by advising pollen barrier agreements between farmers rather than imposing rigid isolation distances on GM farmers. The empirical questions of proportionality and flexibility have been largely ignored in the literature on coexistence and provide timely information for EU policy makers.     

The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance

We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.     

Yield-factor volatility models

The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.     

Cost efficiency in the European securities settlement and depository industry

We examine whether the European settlement and custody institutions operate in an efficient way. To do this, we start from an analytically founded discussion regarding the activities performed by the operators in this sector. Based on the insights obtained, we estimate both a translog cost function and a constant elasticity of substitution – quadratic cost function. From the results obtained, there clearly are economies of scale in this industry. Moreover, also economies of scope between the activities performed are present. These findings imply that probably further consolidation is ahead, and that separating certain activities from others can only be done at a cost in terms of efficiency.     

No-arbitrage criteria for financial markets with transaction costs and incomplete information

This note deals with criteria of absence of arbitrage opportunities for an investor acting in a market with frictions and having a limited access to the information flow. We develop a mathematical scheme covering major models of financial markets with transaction costs and prove several results including a criterion for the robust no-arbitrage property and a hedging theorem.