An empirical study of world market influences on price formation in West Germany

In this paper price and wage determination is analyzed for 35 industries in West-Germany. Tests are made to classify industries as being competitive, discriminatory or sheltered. The chosen approach is related to the “Scandinavian” model. It is shown that about a third of the industries in the sample are not price takers in spite of international trade. Wages are strongly influenced by world market and exchange rate developments. As to the effectiveness of revaluations the results imply that, first, revaluations do provide a protection against imported inflation. Second, revaluations can be expected to produce real effects since they affect the relative price between competitively and non-competitively produced commodities and the terms of trade.     

The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance

We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.     

Yield-factor volatility models

The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.     

Cost efficiency in the European securities settlement and depository industry

We examine whether the European settlement and custody institutions operate in an efficient way. To do this, we start from an analytically founded discussion regarding the activities performed by the operators in this sector. Based on the insights obtained, we estimate both a translog cost function and a constant elasticity of substitution – quadratic cost function. From the results obtained, there clearly are economies of scale in this industry. Moreover, also economies of scope between the activities performed are present. These findings imply that probably further consolidation is ahead, and that separating certain activities from others can only be done at a cost in terms of efficiency.     

No-arbitrage criteria for financial markets with transaction costs and incomplete information

This note deals with criteria of absence of arbitrage opportunities for an investor acting in a market with frictions and having a limited access to the information flow. We develop a mathematical scheme covering major models of financial markets with transaction costs and prove several results including a criterion for the robust no-arbitrage property and a hedging theorem.      

Exponential Hedging and Entropic Penalties

We solve the problem of hedging a contingent claim B by maximizing the expected exponential utility of terminal net wealth for a locally bounded semimartingale X . We prove a duality relation between this problem and a dual problem for local martingale measures Q for X where we either minimize relative entropy minus a correction term involving B or maximize the Q -price of B subject to an entropic penalty term. Our result is robust in the sense that it holds for several choices of the space of hedging strategies. Applications include a new characterization of the minimal martingale measure and risk-averse asymptotics.     

On the proportionality of EU spatial ex ante coexistence regulations: Reply

Desquilbet and Bullock (2010) criticize some aspects of our analysis of the European Union’s (EU) spatial ex ante coexistence regulations (SEACERs) of genetically modified (GM) and non-GM crops presented in Demont et al. (2009). We argue that, besides misinterpreting some of our original arguments, the authors propose a policy analysis framework which is inconsistent with the main goal of the EU’s SEACERs. Their example incorrectly suggests that SEACERs play an additional role of regulating non-GM crop supply on the market. This would be inefficient from a policy economics perspective, especially in an open economy where global trade is taken into account. Therefore, we argue that analyzing flexibility of SEACERs in a market framework could lead to erroneous conclusions and in that case a simple farm level analysis such as presented in Demont et al. (2009) is preferred.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalisation in the 21st Century: Has It Done the Business?

Based on a novel, detailed, time‐consistent tariff database taking account of import protection developments in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalisation over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalisation took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context.