Marginalising women in politics: Recent trends in KwaZulu-Natal

This paper examines trends in the political marginalisation of women in KwaZulu-Natal between 1994 and 2004. South Africa's political representation of women has been increasing significantly since 1994. KwaZulu-Natal has just over 25% female representation in provincial governance, an enviable percentage compared to world figures. This paper examines the quality of that representation to discover how effectively this 25% has addressed the concerns of the region's women, especially rural African women, and what sociocultural notions have hampered their political participation and thus escalated their socioeconomic marginalisation. Looking at primary and secondary data from interviews with women in rural KwaZulu-Natal and in public decision-making structures, and with female and male political science students at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, the paper finds that politics is still masculinised, and poverty by implication remains feminised.     

Predation,Protection, and Accumulation: Endogenous Property Rights in an Overlapping Generations Growth Model

We study a simple growth model with overlapping generations in which property rights are insecure. Insecurity of property rights leads to predation. Due to predation some of the resources are used for protection purposes. Both predation and protection remove resources from the accumulation process. In the model individuals allocate their labor between working for firms and appropriating output from them. Firms allocate their capital between production and protection. Without government, the model generates a unique but inefficient equilibrium. We show that in this equilibrium the level of output is increasing in the rate of effectiveness of protection, the relative utility of honesty, and the discount rate. Further, the equilibrium level of output is dynamically inefficient. We then extend the model to include a government as the sole provider of the public good “protection”. Protection is assumed to be financed by a capital tax imposed on firms. The model then yields multiple equilibria, with both a stable high-protection low-predation equilibrium, and a stable low-protection high-predation equilibrium. Which equilibrium a country is most likely to achieve, and how difficult it is for a country to move to the more desirable low-predation high-protection equilibrium, depend crucially on the parameters of the model describing the economy’s institutional structure. Hence, the results of the model support the emphasis placed by the World Bank on the importance for growth of strengthening institutional structures in developing countries.JEL Code: D23, D90, O41     

Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?

This paper merges the literature on technical trading rules with the literature on Markov switching to develop economically useful trading rules. The Markov models’ out-of-sample, excess returns modestly exceed those of standard technical rules and are profitable over the most recent subsample. A portfolio of Markov and standard technical rules outperforms either set individually, on a risk-adjusted basis. The Markov rules’ high excess returns contrast with mixed performance on statistical tests of forecast accuracy. There is no clear source for the trends, but permitting the mean to depend on higher moments of the exchange rate distribution modestly increases returns.     

A generalized volatility bound for dynamic economies

We develop a generalization of the Hansen-Jagannathan (1991) volatility bound that (i) incorporates the serial correlation properties of return data and (ii) allows us to calculate a spectral version of the bound. This generalization enables us to judge whether models match important aspects of the data in the long run, at business cycle frequencies, seasonal frequencies, etc. Our bound permits evaluation of models without requiring their explicit solution in a way that respects the dynamic implications of the fundamental component of the models, namely, the Euler equation that links asset returns to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution.     

INFORMATION ASYMMETRY AND OPTIONS TRADING

This paper demonstrates that options trading does not have a uniform impact on the volatility of underlying stocks. Although uninformed traders are able to hedge the risk of underlying stocks by maintaining opposite positions in the options market, informed traders hold outright options positions to capitalize on their information. This hedging behavior tends to reduce noise in the stock market, whereas the speculating behavior tends to generate noise in the stock market. As a result, stocks that were originally volatile, i.e., traded primarily by uninformed traders, will be stabilized by the introduction of options. Conversely, stocks that were more stable become destabilized by options trading.     

Tests of time: organizational time-reckoning and the making of accountants in two multi-national accounting firms

There has been remarkably little study of the recruitment, training and socialization of accountants in general, much less the specific case of trainee auditors, despite many calls to do so. In this paper, we seek to explore one key aspect of professional socialization in accounting firms: the discourses and practices of time-reckoning and time-management. By exploring time practices in accounting firms we argue that the organizational socialization of trainees into particular forms of time-consciousness and temporal visioning is a fundamental aspect of securing and developing professional identity. We pay particular attention to how actors consciousness of time is understood to develop, and how it reflects their organizational and professional environment, including how they envision the future and structure their strategic life-plan accordingly. Also of particular importance to the advancement of career in accounting firms is an active engagement with the politics of time: the capacity to manipulate and resist following the overt time-management routines of the firms. Rather than simply see trainees as passive subjects of organizational time-management devices, we noted how they are actively involved in ‘managing’ the organizational recording of time to further their career progression.     

The Check's in the Mail: Why the United States Lags in the Adoption of Cost-Saving Electronic Payments

The United States payment system costs around $225 billion annually and checks account for 75% of all noncash payments. Other electronic payment methods (debit cards, automated clearing house direct deposits, and debits) cost only around one third to one half as much as a check. This paper outlines the main reasons why the shift from checks to cheaper electronic payments has been slow, much slower here than in other countries. We also forecast the future use of checks and electronic payments and end by discussing policy initiatives that may speed up this substitution process.     

Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting dispersion in analysts' forecasts as a proxy for differences in opinion about a stock, we show that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that prices will reflect the optimistic view whenever investors with the lowest valuations do not trade. By contrast, our evidence is inconsistent with a view that dispersion in analysts' forecasts proxies for risk.