Preventives Versus Treatments Redux: Tighter Bounds on Distortions in Innovation Incentives with an Application to the Global Demand for HIV Pharmaceuticals

Kremer and Snyder (Q J Econ 130:1167–1239, 2015) show that demand curves for a preventive and treatment may have different shapes though they target the same disease, biasing the pharmaceutical manufacturer toward developing the lucrative rather than the socially desirable product. This paper tightens the theoretical bounds on the potential deadweight loss from such biases. Using a calibration of the global demand for HIV pharmaceuticals, we demonstrate the dramatically sharper analysis achievable with the new bounds, allowing us to pinpoint potential deadweight loss at 62% of the global gain from curing HIV. We use the calibration to perform policy counterfactuals, assessing welfare effects of government policies such as a subsidy, reference pricing, and price-discrimination ban. The fit of our calibration is good: we find that a hypothetical drug monopolist would price an HIV drug so high that only 4% of the infected population worldwide would purchase, matching actual drug prices and quantities in the early 2000s before subsidies in low-income countries ramped up.     

Engines of Growth in China: The Limits of Informal Institutions

Abstract:

Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth.     

Investment decision-making under economic policy uncertainty

It is widely established that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects investment decisions and performance, yet research in this area has overlooked the direct property investment market. This article seeks to rectify this and proposes a multistage multilevel analytical framework to offer new insights and a richness of findings. Using a news-based measure of EPU in the United Kingdom, and controlling for economic conditions, a national-level analysis reveals some evidence of Granger-Causality between EPU and total returns, indicating that pricing is responsive to uncertainty. These findings suggest that EPU is an important risk factor for direct property investments, with pricing implications. Differences in data and performance measure are important, however, with income returns unresponsive. A micro-level investigation begins to reveal some of the asset-pricing decisions underpinning the national results, indicating investors’ concerns for income streams are consistently high, regardless of varying EPU. Pricing can also cause changes in EPU, such as in the retail and industrial markets (increasingly linked through logistics) reflecting sector-specific stakeholder groups and newsworthy issues. This evidence highlights how important it is for policy-makers to understand the complex and bi-directional relationship, that indecision can undermine investment confidence and cause investment market volatility, in turn raising EPU.     

Consumer sorting and hedonic valuation of wine attributes: exploiting data from a field experiment

This article uses a novel experimental approach to measure consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for wine attributes. We invited customers of a local supermarket who had selected a bottle of wine to purchase to participate in a valuation experiment. Integrating their original wine choice into the experiment, each participant evaluated six alternative wines, generating a rich set of data on willingness to pay and consumer characteristics. The data from the experiment allow us to compare standard shelf price‐based wine attribute valuation estimates with estimates using WTP data and an increasing amount of information about individual consumers. The full model employs individual fixed effects to estimate WTP parameters without bias from consumer sorting or supply side influences. Our WTP estimates for wine attributes differ markedly from previous attribute value estimates. Consumers in our sample display clear and stable preferences for wine varieties, but less clear preferences for appellations. Our results suggest caution is needed in using market prices to estimate parameters of the consumer valuation function for product attributes.     

Microfoundations of strategic problem formulation

Before a strategy can be developed, the problem it is supposed to address needs to be formulated. We establish the microfoundations of strategic problem formulation by developing a theory that predicts a core set of impediments to formulation that arise when complex, ill‐structured problems are addressed by heterogeneous teams. These impediments fundamentally constrain and narrow problem formulation, thereby limiting solution search and potential value creation. We establish these impediments as a set of design goals, which, if remedied by an appropriately constructed mechanism, can expand problem formulation to be more comprehensive. Finally, we consider how organizations can improve problem formulation by creating a structured process that satisfies the theoretically derived design goals and detail a specific example of this mechanism (collaborative structured inquiry). Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Outdoor recreation participation and views on resource development and preservation

Abstract

Views on the preservation of resources versus their development for recreation are compared among participants in three types of outdoor recreation: “appreciative”; activities (cross‐country skiing, hiking, and canoeing); “consumptive”; activities (fishing and hunting); and “mechanized”; activities (motorboating, snowmo‐biling, and trail biking). The results from a 1984 questionnaire survey conducted in Edmonton and Calgary, Canada, indicate a stronger preservationist orientation among participants in appreciative activities, whereas (with the exception of hunters) participants in consumptive and mechanized activities hold stronger pro‐development views. These differences cannot be attributed to simultaneous variations in socioeco‐nomic characteristics or environmental attitudes among the recreational groups. The findings suggest that differences in outdoor recreational activity preferences represent an important source of variation in views about appropriate levels of preservation versus development of Alberta's natural and wildernesss resources.     

Telecommunications technology applications and standards : A new role for the user

Telecommunications is at a critical juncture in the development of technology, policy and industry structure. The industry is becoming increasingly global and competitive; technology is developing faster than it can be implemented; and telecommunications is becoming strategically important to user organizations. Regulatory bodies and standards organizations are struggling with these developments. Public policy that encourages both competition in the telecommunications industry as well as the organized participation of users in the development of new technology applications, technical standards and industry regulations is essential for realizing the prospective benefits of the information age.