TAIL FORECASTING WITH MULTIVARIATE BAYESIAN ADDITIVE REGRESSION TREES

We develop multivariate time-series models using Bayesian additive regression trees that posit nonlinearities among macroeconomic variables, their lags, and possibly their lagged errors. The error variances can be stable, feature stochastic volatility, or follow a nonparametric specification. We evaluate density and tail forecast performance for a set of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators. Our results suggest that the proposed models improve forecast accuracy both overall and in the tails. Another finding is that when allowing for nonlinearities in the conditional mean, heteroskedasticity becomes less important. A scenario analysis reveals nonlinear relations between predictive distributions and financial conditions.     

Social influence and stakeholder engagement behavior conformity,compliance, and reactance

Following the proliferation of customer engagement behavior research, rising interest is observed in marketing-based stakeholder engagement behavior, which covers any stakeholder's—including a customer's, employee's, firm's, supplier's, competitor's, and so forth—behavioral engagement in his/her role-related interactions, activities, and relationships. However, despite its importance, understanding of the stakeholder engagement behavior concept remains tenuous, is therefore addressed in this paper. We first conceptualize stakeholder engagement behavior as a stakeholder's behavioral manifestation toward his/her role-related interactions, activities, and relationships, followed by an exploration of the effect of influencor-exerted social influence on an influencee's stakeholder engagement behavior. We argue this effect to manifest as stakeholder engagement behavior conformity, -compliance, or -reactance, depending on the influencee's level of acceptance of the influencor's exerted influence. In turn, we propose stakeholder engagement behavior conformity, -compliance, and -reactance to yield cooperation, coopetition, or competition in the influencor/influencee relationship, respectively, as depicted in a conceptual model and an associated set of propositions. By investigating the interface of social influence, stakeholder engagement behavior, and its prevailing relational consequences (i.e., cooperation, coopetition, and competition), our analyses offer novel theoretical acumen and actionable managerial insight.     

Correction to: Reformulating prospect theory to become a von Neumann–Morgenstern theory

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - The authors regret the following errors occurred in the original publication of the article. The corrected text has been presented with this erratum.