Understanding,modelling and managing longevity risk: key issues and main challenges

This article investigates the latest developments in longevity-risk modelling, and explores the key risk management challenges for both the financial and insurance industries. The article discusses key definitions that are crucial for the enhancement of the way longevity risk is understood, providing a global view of the practical issues for longevity-linked insurance and pension products that have evolved concurrently with the steady increase in life expectancy since s. In addition, the article frames the recent and forthcoming developments that are expected to action industry-wide changes as more effective regulation, designed to better assess and efficiently manage inherited risks, is adopted. Simultaneously, the evolution of longevity is intensifying the need for capital markets to be used to manage and transfer the risk through what are known as Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS). Thus, the article will examine the emerging scenarios, and will finally highlight some important potential developments for longevity-risk management from a financial perspective with reference to the most relevant modelling and pricing practices in the banking industry.     

Bootstrapping sequential change-point tests for linear regression

Bootstrap methods for sequential change-point detection procedures in linear regression models are proposed. The corresponding monitoring procedures are designed to control the overall significance level. The bootstrap critical values are updated constantly by including new observations obtained from the monitoring. The theoretical properties of these sequential bootstrap procedures are investigated, showing their asymptotic validity. Bootstrap and asymptotic methods are compared in a simulation study, showing that the studentized bootstrap tests hold the overall level better especially for small historic sample sizes while having a comparable power and run length.     

Do weak supervisory systems encourage bank risk-taking?

Weak bank supervision could give banks the ability to shift risk from themselves to supervisors. We use cross-border bank mergers as a natural experiment to test changes in risk and the impact of supervision. We examine cross-border bank mergers and find that the supervisory structures of the partners’ countries influence changes in post-merger total risk. An acquirer from a country with strong supervision lowers total risk after a cross-border merger. However, total risk increases when the target bank is located in a country with relatively strong supervision. This result is consistent with strong host regulators limiting the risky activities of their local banks. Foreign-owned competitors could then engage in the risky projects, especially if the foreign banks’ supervisors are not strong. An acquirer entering a country with strong supervision appears to shift risk back to its home country. The results suggest that bank supervisors can reduce total banking risk in their countries by being strong.     

Distance and International Banking

This paper asks how important distance is as a determinant of international banking and whether distance has become less important over time. If technological progress has lowered information costs and if information costs increase in distance, the importance of distance should have declined. I use data on assets and liabilities of commercial banks from five countries (France, Germany, Italy, UK, and US) in 50 host countries for the years 1983–99 to test this hypothesis. Generally, I find that banks hold significantly lower assets in distant markets and that the importance of distance for the foreign asset holdings of banks has not changed.     

Home production,market production and the gender wage gap: Incentives and expectations

We study the joint determination of gender differences in labor earnings and time devoted to home production in an economy where informational frictions give rise to incentive problems in the labor market. Our model generates novel predictions on the relation between earnings, home hours and the incidence of performance pay, which we confront with the data. The empirical evidence broadly supports our hypothesis.