A non-linear approach for predicting stock returns and volatility with the use of investor sentiment indices

The popular sentiment-based investor index S^BW introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) is shown to have no predictive ability for stock returns. However, Huang et al. (2015) developed a new investor sentiment index, S^PLS, which can predict monthly stock returns based on a linear framework. However, the linear model may lead to misspecification and lack of robustness. We provide statistical evidence that the relationship between stock returns, S^BW and S^PLS is characterized by structural instability and inherent nonlinearity. Given this, using a nonparametric causality approach, we show that neither S^BW nor S^PLS predicts stock market returns or even its volatility, as opposed to previous empirical evidence.     

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test

Recent studies have analysed the ability of measures of uncertainty to predict movements in macroeconomic and financial variables. The objective of this paper is to employ the recently proposed nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to analyse the predictability of returns and volatility of sixteen U.S. dollar-based exchange rates (for both developed and developing countries) over the monthly period of 1999:01–2012:03, based on information provided by a news-based measure of relative uncertainty, i.e., the differential between domestic and U.S. uncertainties. The causality-in-quantile approach allows us to test for not only causality-in-mean (1st moment), but also causality that may exist in the tails of the joint distribution of the variables. In addition, we are also able to investigate causality-in-variance (volatility spillovers) when causality in the conditional-mean may not exist, yet higher order interdependencies might emerge. We motivate our analysis by employing tests for nonlinearity. These tests detect nonlinearity, as well as the existence of structural breaks in the exchange rate returns, and in its relationship with the EPU differential, implying that the Granger causality tests based on a linear framework is likely to suffer from misspecification. The results of our nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test indicate that for seven exchange rates EPU differentials have a causal impact on the variance of exchange rate returns but not on the returns themselves at all parts of the conditional distribution. We also find that EPU differentials have predictive ability for both exchange rate returns as well as the return variance over the entire conditional distribution for four exchange rates.     

Financial Integration and Economic Growth in the COMESA and SADC Regions

Abstract

This study used panel data methods to examine the relationship between financial integration and economic growth in the COMESA and SADC regions. Using Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows as a share of GDP, Chinn-Ito index of financial openness and debt flows as measures of financial integration, the study found that the relationship between financial integration and growth is largely insignificant in the combined sample of COMESA and SADC regions. However, the relationship changes when the two regions are separated. Whereas two of the indicators of financial integration are significant in the COMESA region, only one indicator of financial integration is significant in the SADC region implying that financial integration is more important in the COMESA region than in the SADC region. The results support the growth retarding theories of financial globalization and the convergence hypothesis in the COMESA region while the neoclassical trade theories find strong support in the SADC region. These results imply, first, that financial integration has different growth effects for different regional groupings and thus integration policies should not be universally applied. Second, these results imply that further enhancement of trade integration policies offer more promising outcomes for economic growth in the SADC region than financial integration policies while the converse is true for the COMESA region.     

Liberalisation of the internal market: Efficiency advantages and requirements

The expected welfare effects of the completion of the internal European market by 1992 will differ markedly from one member country to another. What requirements must be met for liberalisation of the internal market? How could the disparities in the distribution of welfare effects be lessened?     

Understanding consumers' in-store visual perception: The influence of package design features on visual attention

It is widely accepted that the human brain has limited capacity for perceptual stimuli and consumers' visual attention, when searching for a particular product or brand in a grocery store, should then be limited by the boundaries of their own perceptual capacity. In this exploratory study, we examine the relationship between abundant in-store stimuli and limited human perceptual capacity. Specifically, we test the influence of package design features on visual attention. Data was collected through two eye-tracking experiments, one in a grocery store using wireless eye-tracking equipment, and another in a lab setting. Findings show that consumers have fragmented visual attention during grocery shopping, and that their visual attention is simultaneously influenced and disrupted by the shelf display. Physical design features such as shape and contrast dominate the initial phase of searching. Time pressure and familiarity with the grocery store are studied and discussed.     

Does the Holland model of occupational choice (HMOC) perpetuate the Beancounter-Bookkeeper (BB) stereotype of accountants?

This article investigates the Holland model of occupational choice's (HMOC) development, influence, and validity in relation to its classification of bookkeepers, accountants, and business professionals. Study 1 reanalyzes published data and provides evidence that the Beancounter-Bookkeeper (BB) stereotype, which is promoted in the HMOC, is partially predictive of the personality characteristics of individuals who choose to enter professional accountancy. Study 2 investigates the influence of HMOC training, and exposure to accounting education, on perceptions of the personality type needed for accounting work; results indicate that: (1) HMOC training is associated with perceptions that accounting work requires a BB personality, and (2) the importance of investigative skills to accounting work increase with accounting education. Following this, we review evidence that suggests low validity in the HMOC's claims of greater job success and satisfaction among BB accountants. Finally, we consider three possible processes that may explain Holland and colleagues’ conjoining of accountants with bookkeepers. Together, the analysis promotes skepticism regarding whether the HMOC's claim that professional accounting success demands a passive, compliant, subservient, i.e., BB, personality supports the public interest obligations of professional accountants.     

Job Turnover in China: A Case Study of Shanghai's Manufacturing Enterprises

This article studies the job turnover among manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai during the period from 1989 to 1992. Various indicators of job turnover are calculated. The empirical results demonstrate that types of ownership and firm size are significant factors in accounting for the changes in job generation and job reallocation. Among various types of enterprise, international joint ventures and small firms are more able to create jobs and to generate job reallocation.     

International migrant remittances and labour force participation in Nigeria

This study examines the effect of remittances inflow to Nigeria on labour force participation in the country using the propensity score matching and Heckman two‐step benchmark model. With data sourced from Nigeria's 2015/16 General Household Survey, results reveal that receipt of remittances increased both labour force participation for non‐farm economic activities and labour force participation in urban areas, perhaps as a result of investing received remittances in new business ventures. In addition, remittance inflows raised economic activeness of the younger members of the labour force who constituted a greater percentage. The study recommends the proper functioning of institutions aimed at facilitating remittance inflows as well as enhancing the utilization of such remittances in industry‐based business start‐ups.