Polarities between Naturalism and Non-Naturalism in Contemporary Economics: An Overview

We provide a dynamic model of banking competition, in which bounded rationality of some competitors explains how the credit cycle is intensified. We model the economic cycle following Tobias F. Rötheli (2012b), who argues that boundedly rational banks, in their Bayesian learning, overestimate the probability of success during booms and underestimate it during recessions. We obtain three main results. First, the model suggests that pessimism/underconfidence is not a powerful driver of credit cycles. Instead, it supports the conclusion that it is euphoria during large upswings that leads to the next crunch. Second, the dynamization of the model provides further insight into the way boundedly rational competition intensifies the credit cycle. Third, it additionally predicts that the effects of behavioral biases are more pervasive when the quality of the niche markets is lower.     

Interaction of size,book‐to‐market and momentum effects in Australia

This study seeks to disentangle the effects of size, book‐to‐market and momentum on returns. Initial results show that each characteristic has a role in explaining returns, but that there is interaction between size and momentum, as well as between size and book‐to‐market. Three key findings emerge. First, the size premium is the strongest, particularly in the loser portfolios. Second, the value premium is generally limited to the smallest portfolios. Third, the momentum premium is evident for the large‐ and middle‐sized portfolios, but loser stocks significantly outperform winner stocks in the smallest size portfolio. When these interactions are controlled with multivariate regression, we find a significant negative average relation between size and returns, a significant positive average relation between book‐to‐market and returns, and a significant positive average relation between momentum and returns.     

Separation in Cointegrated Systems and Persistent-Transitory Decompositions

The notion of separation in cointegrated systems helps identifying possible sub-system structures that may reduce the complexity of larger systems by yielding a more parsimonious representation of the times series. In this paper we demonstrate that although the subsystem cointegration analysis in such systems can be conducted in case of both completely and partially separated systems, the dual approach, i.e. calculation of the common stochastic trends, may turn out to yield properties of the trends that differ depending upon the type of separation under consideration. In particular, we demonstrate how persistent-transitory (P-T) decompositions and long- and short-memory factorizations of a multivariate time series will interact across systems when considering the presence (or absence) of different types of separation. Generalizations to non-linear error correction models are briefly discussed.     

Common factors in conditional distributions for bivariate time series

A definition for a common factor for bivariate time series is suggested by considering the decomposition of the conditional density into the product of the marginals and the copula, with the conditioning variable being a common factor if it does not directly enter the copula. We show the links between this definition and the idea of a common factor as a dominant feature in standard linear representations. An application using a business cycle indicator as the common factor in the relationship between U.S. income and consumption found that both series held the factor in their marginals but not in the copula.     

An Economist's Comment on Philosophico-Economic Relationships

In this journal, Welch and Mueller (WM) (2001) demonstrated a classificatory method for conceptualizing relationships between religion and economics. No judgement can be drawn from WM as to which of their four classifications might be a, or the, correct one. They conclude that the relationships are “both complex and controversial”, and that before any assessment can be apprehended adequately of how the two fields interact, “the permutations and subcategories implied by the system” used need to be identified and explored more thoroughly. This paper pursues that path, but argues that a more determinate verdict than WM's is possible. Here, an alternative interpretation of the relationship between religion and economics is investigated, in which WM's categories are assessed. In the alternative, WM's four classes are not taken to possess equal intellectual merit, as they appear to be. Using more current and comprehensive definitions of religion than WM's, a case is constructed that three of their four categories possess greater intellectual value than the remaining one. These three are here collapsed into one new mega-category regarded as that most validly describing the relationship between religion and economics.     

Segmental Disclosure Practice: Thirteen Years On

In an age of financial disclosure directed by professional standards, the changes in practice voluntarily undertaken by companies are sometimes difficult to detect. By focusing on a period prior to the introduction of SSAP 25, the segmental disclosure issue offers an opportunity to consider whether practice has voluntarily changed. An examination of the extent and quality of segmental disclosure, for a specific group of companies over an extended period, offers an indication of the need for a standard or further regulation. If it can be demonstrated that disclosure practice has improved under a primarily self-regulatory framework, the need for a standard like SSAP 25 may be questioned. The segmental disclosure practices of the same group of seventy companies are compared for the reporting years 1975–6 and 1988–9. Whilst an underlying improvement in respect to business activity disclosure is revealed, the same cannot be claimed for geographic segmental disclosure. Not only has the number of companies reporting profit by geographic segment declined but also the consistency with other aspects of the annual report has reduced.