Insecurity,food financing and the IMF

This article considers the desirability and feasibility of an international food financing facility along the lines of existing lending facilities administered by the IMF and under the IMF's auspices. A prominent proposal is the extention of The Compensatory Financing Facility. The authors examine this proposal in the context of the nature and magnitude of food insecurity in developing countries. The authors conclude that the establishment of a food facility within the IMF is both desirable and feasible, but that, as suggested by FAO, it should be separate from The Compensatory Financing Facility.     

Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime‐Switching Approach

We propose newly developed unsmoothing techniques for appraisal‐based real estate returns based on a regime‐switching threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. We show that when true returns follow a TAR process, conventional linear autoregressive techniques are misspecified and underestimate true variance. Two exogenous variables, equity returns and gross domestic product growth, outperform other variables as regime indicators and appear to capture risks of downturns in real estate. We extend the model to the smoothing equation, allowing for switching behavior by appraisers, using two new techniques: the TAR‐AR and TAR‐TAR approaches. The “co‐switching” specification opens up a new frontier of empirical research. We estimate the TAR‐TAR using FT returns as the regime indicator, and we find results that outperform conventional smoothing models and have plausible economic explanations.     

Biofuels technology development in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

The benefits of biofuels depend on the feedstock, conversion pathway and local context. This paper assesses biofuels technology readiness and developments to provide foresight to biofuels development in Southern Africa. Efficient conversion pathways, coupled with biomass from waste or high-yielding energy crops, will reduce both the costs of biofuels production, and the environmental impacts. Compared to petroleum fuels, the current commercial biofuels (ethanol, biogas and biodiesel) typically offer carbon emission reductions of 30–50% but are marginally more expensive. The extent of biofuels market penetration will therefore be influenced by mandates (blending targets) and subsidies (green premium). Advanced biofuels promise greater efficiencies and carbon emission reductions at reduced cost but will require further research and development to reach commercialisation. If developed appropriately, biofuels can reduce carbon emissions and improve energy security, while enabling sustainable agriculture and improved natural resources management.     

Audit Committee Effectiveness in Victorian Local Government

This research addressed the questions: do audit committees (AC) in Victorian local government function effectively? Qualitative and quantitative data were collected to measure the perceptions, attitudes and perspectives of mayors, chief executives and chairs of the AC. The results were compared with perceptions of committee members of the Local Government and Shires Association of New South Wales and board members of the Municipal Association of Victoria as the representative bodies of local government in New South Wales and Victoria. There was a similarity of views in relation to: (1) inputs of an AC; (2) the behavioural nuances of the rigour of debate, trust and effective communications; and (3) the relationships with councillors and management. Limitations to effectiveness included: (1) attraction and retention of members; (2) the variability of expertise and the skills of the members; (3) continuing professional development for members; (4) ‘gaming’ behaviours; (5) power games associated with the appointment process; and (6) domination of the AC by members or management. The suggested way forward is the reinforcement of a strong governance culture in local government and an effective AC providing oversight of compliance, governance, internal control and risk processes.     

Hidden costs of supply management in a small market

Canada regulates its dairy and poultry industries through supply management. The supply‐management programs use target prices, production quotas and import tariff‐rate quotas to raise domestic prices. Canadian supply‐managed producers cannot export their output to world markets as exports would be considered subsidized under World Trade Organization rules. In this paper, we show that once foregone export opportunities are accounted for, supply management may no longer be beneficial to domestic producers of the supply‐managed commodities. The extent to which foregone profits from exports dominate domestic rents depends on Canada's comparative advantage, domestic market elasticities and the extent of supply management distortion in the domestic market.     

Economic Integration,Monopoly Power and Productivity Growth without Scale Effects

This paper considers how monopoly power affects the relationship between economic integration and economic growth that is not biased by a scale effect. In a two‐country model of trade, productivity growth is generated by firm‐level investment in process innovation, and the location of economic activity is determined by relative market size, trade costs and imperfect knowledge diffusion. Equilibrium features the partial concentration of manufacturing and the full concentration of innovation in the larger country. Increased economic integration raises the concentration of manufacturing in the larger country, and when monopoly power is strong, leads to decreased product variety, accelerated productivity growth and greater national welfare. With weak monopoly power, however, it raises product variety and dampens productivity growth, but may benefit or hurt welfare.     

The Workings of the London Office Market

This paper presents estimates of an equilibrium-based dynamic adjustment model of the office market, using supply and demand relationships to link construction, absorption, vacancies and rents to employment growth and real interest rates. The model is estimated using data from the City of London office market over 1977–1996. The model tracks the market dynamically, and the severe 1985–1996 cycle is shown to be related to the cycle in employment growth and the movement of real interest rates. The latter directly affects both construction and real rent levels.