DO INSTITUTIONS MITIGATE THE RISK OF NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS?

The resource curse, as manifested by an increased likelihood of conflict over rents, can be mitigated by institutions. Lei and Michaels find that discoveries of “giant” oil fields increase the likelihood of violent conflict, but they find no evidence that democratic institutions mitigate this risk. We test whether institutions mitigate the resource curse by reducing the risk of natural resource conflicts. Our results indicate that high quality economic institutions reduce the likelihood of territorial (separatist) conflicts following natural resource rent windfalls. Highly autocratic and highly democratic institutions also reduce the likelihood of territorial conflict after natural resource rent windfalls. (JEL Q34, O13, P48, D74)     

Models of mortality rates – analysing the residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 25 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this article, we test several of the leading time series models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.     

Sickness, absenteeism, presenteeism, and sick pay

The annual cost of absenteeism from the workplace in the UKhas been estimated to be over 1% of GDP. The traditional approachto a discussion of absence has been for the firm to passivelyaccept both wages and sick pay and allow workers to choose theirabsence behaviour. Most empirical research has been based onthis approach. However, if absence is costly why should firmspay extra-statutory sick pay? One reason may be the phenomenaof presenteeism (ill workers attending work). This may adverselyaffect productivity. This paper shows that allowing for presenteeismhas important implications for both the design of optimal wage-sickpay contracts and for the interpretation of empirical studies.Specifically, we show that firms will offer a level of sickpay greater than the statutory minimum.     

Explaining the Decline in UK Agricultural Productivity Growth

This paper reports the results of a study of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in UK agriculture, from 1953‐2000. It shows that prior to 1984 TFP grew at 1.68% per annum and after that date at only 0.26%. International comparisons show that the UK has fallen far behind the leading EU countries. Yield growth declined even more and only labour productivity continues to grow rapidly. In part, the result is due to better data that incorporates more quality adjustment, but the real decline can be explained mainly by cuts in R&D, less patents, less growth in farm size and the demise of public extension. There are other negative factors, which have not been quantified, including asset fixity, convergence and ozone pollution, and a background argument that recent growth rates cannot be sustained.     

Productivity Growth in UK Accountancy Departments 1989–96

The study investigates productivity change in UK accountancy departments over the period 1989–1996, with this change being decomposed into 'change in efficiency' and 'technical change'. Efficiency change is also decomposed into changes in scale efficiency, output congestion and purely technical efficiency. To empirically assess the relative efficiency of each department, in transforming its monetary budget into teaching and research outputs, DEA techniques are utilized so as to enable comparison with a 'best practice' frontier. In doing this, the results of the 1989, 1992 and 1996 Research Assessment Exercises are incorporated so as to take account of the quality of research output.     

THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM — A COMMENT

The application of Kula's sum of discounted consumption flows method to forestry investment gives a more favourable result than NPV, but leads to some curious consequences. In particular, the immediate future generation may not be provided with a timber resource by the present generation, while being expected to provide such a resource for its own successors. The method does not in fact treat future generations equitably: downward revision of the social discount rate, possibly to zero, is a better means of achieving this objective.