Probabilistic forecasting of output growth,inflation and the balance of trade in a GVAR framework

We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances among a group of 33 countries (26 regions). We account for structural instability by use of country‐specific intercept shifts, the timings of which are identified taking into account both statistical evidence and our knowledge of historic economic conditions and events. Using this model, we compute both central forecasts and scenario‐based probabilistic forecasts for a range of events of interest, including the sign and trajectory of the balance of trade, the achievement of a short‐term inflation target, and the incidence of recession and slow growth. The forecasting performance of the GVAR model in relation to the ongoing financial crisis is quite remarkable. It correctly identifies a pronounced and widespread economic contraction accompanied by a marked shift in the net trade balance of the Eurozone and Japan. Moreover, this promising out‐of‐sample forecasting performance is substantiated by a raft of statistical tests which indicate that the predictive accuracy of the GVAR model is broadly comparable to that of standard benchmark models over short horizons and superior over longer horizons. Hence we conclude that GVAR models may be a useful forecasting tool for institutions operating at both the national and supra‐national levels. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The spillover effects of target interest rate news from the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank on the Asia-Pacific stock markets

This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the spillover effects of the U.S. Fed's and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s target interest rate news on the market returns and return volatilities of 12 stock markets in the Asia-Pacific over the period 1999–2006. The news spillover effects on the returns are generally consistent with the literature where a majority of stock markets shows significant negative returns in response to unexpected rate rises. While the results of the speed of adjustment for the Fed's news are mixed across the markets, the ECB news was absorbed slowly, in general. The return volatilities were higher in response to the interest rate news from both sources. In addition, both the Fed and the ECB news elicited tardy or persisting volatility responses. These findings have important implications for all levels of market participants in the Asia-Pacific stock markets.     

Does poverty lead to non-fatal unintentional injuries in rural Vietnam?

The aim of this study was to identify associations between poverty at the household level and unintentional injury morbidity. A cohort consisting of 24,874 person-time episodes, representing 24,776 people living in 5,801 households (classified into rich, middle income and poor by local authorities in 1999) was followed during 2000, in order to identify and assess non-fatal unintentional injuries. Incidence rate ratios were calculated using a Poisson regression model. The results showed that poverty was a risk factor for unintentional injuries generally. When looking at different types of injury, poverty was a risk for home, work and "other" injuries, protective for school injuries, while the risk of traffic injuries was not affected. The results also showed that communes in mountainous areas were at higher risk for home, work and other injuries. Overall, poverty was associated with unintentional injury morbidity. However, the relationship varied by sex, age and type of injury. Specifically, poverty increased the risk for children and elderly people being injured at home, and for adults (15-59 years) being affected by work injuries.     

Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Most studies of agricultural transformation document the impact of agricultural income growth on macroeconomic indicators of development. Much less is known about the micro-scale changes within the farming sector that signal a transformation precipitated by agricultural income growth. This study provides a comparative analysis of the patterns of micro-level changes that occur among small-holder farmers in Uganda and Malawi in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia (SEA). Our analysis provides several important insights on agricultural transformation in these two regions. First, agricultural income in all examined countries is vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature, an effect that is nonlinear and asymmetric. SSA countries are more vulnerable to these weather changes. Second, exogenous increases in agricultural income in previous years improve non-farm income and trigger a change in labor allocation within the rural sector in SEA. However, this is the opposite in SSA where the increase in agricultural income reduces non-farm income, indicating a substitution effect between farm and non-farm sectors. These findings reveal clear agricultural transformation driven by agricultural income in SEA but no similar evidence in SSA.     

Demand for fish in Asia: a cross‐country analysis*

Fish demand patterns in nine Asian countries were investigated using a multistage budgeting framework allowing a disaggregated approach to analysing fish consumption. This paper highlights the heterogeneity of fisheries products in terms of species, sources and cultural responses of consumers, factors that are important in fish demand under the Asian setting. Specifically, fish demand by income groups were compared to determine how the low‐ and high‐income households respond to price and income changes. Results showed that the estimated price and income elasticities of all fish types included in the study were relatively more elastic among the poorer households.     

Formal versus Informal System to Mitigate Non-point Source Pollution: An Experimental Investigation

Water pollution caused by aquaculture or agricultural activities negatively affects both the activity and downstream areas. A number of other upstream-downstream problems (e.g. water use, industrial/municipal water source pollution, salinity zoning problems) are examples of similar negative externalities. Non-point source pollution, which is either prohibitively costly or impossible to observe, is more feasible to identify, and hence mitigate at the aggregate level. We study experimentally the efficacy of two possible management systems: a centralised external, formal government-led monitoring and control system; a self-governing communication and informal system, both designed to manage shrimp farming, which generates a non-point source pollution with upstream-downstream externalities. Our results suggest that local communication and control outperforms the external monitoring and certification agency. These results, in conjunction with other relevant research, suggest that informal regulation and self-governance among shrimp farmers can be highly successful in tackling the pollution problem.     

Arbitrage and equilibrium in unbounded exchange economies with satiation

In his seminal paper on arbitrage and competitive equilibrium in unbounded exchange economies, Werner (1987) proved the existence of a competitive equilibrium, under a price no-arbitrage condition, without assuming either local or global nonsatiation. Werner’s existence result contrasts sharply with classical existence results for bounded exchange economies which require, at minimum, global nonsatiation at rational allocations. Why do unbounded exchange economies admit existence without local or global nonsatiation? This question is the focus of our paper. First, we show that in unbounded exchange economies, even if some agents’ preferences are satiated, the absence of arbitrage is sufficient for the existence of competitive equilibria, as long as each agent who is satiated has a nonempty set of useful net trades– that is, as long as agents’ preferences satisfy weak nonsatiation. Second, we provide a new approach to proving existence in unbounded exchange economies. The key step in our new approach is to transform the original economy to an economy satisfying global nonsatiation such that all equilibria of the transformed economy are equilibria of the original economy. What our approach makes clear is that it is precisely the condition of weak nonsatiation – a condition considerably weaker than local or global nonsatiation – that makes possible this transformation.     

Customer green orientation and process innovation alignment: A configuration approach in the global manufacturing industry

Research suggests that manufacturers increasingly innovate processes to meet customer's green requirements; however, little is known about the impact on performance and the contextual conditions, under which they are effective. Grounded on configuration approach, this study develops taxonomies of manufacturing firms based on the degree of customer's green orientation and process innovation. This study argues that performance differences between these clusters, highlight managerial implications for sustainable development. The empirical data used in this study were drawn from Global Manufacturing Research Group (GMRG) survey project (with data collected from 629 manufacturing firms from nine countries). Our results show that customer green innovation taxonomies influence differently on environmental measures, costs, and financial performance. The study proposes three clusters: Process active, Green minimalist, and Green proactive. The main differences between manufacturers are based on the level of investments in joint green improvement initiatives and customer direct investments in green activities. Firms that belong to the Process active cluster, who are first within the industry to deploy new processes and update the latest process development, gained significant improvement in financial measures such as market share and profits. Whereas Green minimalist cluster lagged behind, Green proactive manufacturers aligned in both capabilities to experience higher payoffs in sustainable performance measures and efficiency. The findings provide a step‐by‐step decision‐making process and offer guidance for supply chain managers who have to stretch their needs to align the innovation processes to enhance their sustainable performance.     

Media Content,Accounting Quality,and Liquidity Volatility

We examine how the linguistic content of news items affects the volatility of a firm's liquidity, and we consider whether accounting quality moderates the media content-liquidity volatility relation. Regarding the unconditional relation between media content and liquidity volatility, one view is media content could reduce liquidity volatility by providing additional information about fundamental values; another view is it could increase liquidity volatility by increasing investor uncertainty, particularly for negative news. Using data from Thomson Reuters News Analytics, we find evidence supporting the view that media content, positive and negative, has incremental information. Regarding the moderating role of accounting quality, pre-existing accounting information of higher quality could enhance investors' reactions to media content by providing a more precise baseline, or it could reduce investors' reactions to the news if investors anchor on higher quality financial statements. Our findings are consistent with more credible accounting information serving an anchor role, and suggest that investors condition their reaction to media content based on the quality of a firm's pre-existing accounting information.     

Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy

We develop a technique to exploit forecast error variance decompositions to evaluate the macroeconomic connectedness embedded in any multi-country macroeconomic model with an approximate vector autoregressive (VAR) representation. We apply our technique to a large global VAR model covering 25 countries and derive vivid representations of macroeconomic connectedness. We find that the US exerts a dominant influence in the global economy and that Brazil, China, and the Eurozone are also globally significant. Recursive analysis over the period of the global financial crisis shows that shocks to global equity markets are transmitted rapidly and forcefully to real trade flows and real GDP.