Information and Incentives Inside the Firm: Evidence from Loan Officer Rotation

We present evidence that reassigning tasks among agents can alleviate moral hazard in communication. A rotation policy that routinely reassigns loan officers to borrowers of a commercial bank affects the officers' reporting behavior. When an officer anticipates rotation, reports are more accurate and contain more bad news about the borrower's repayment prospects. As a result, the rotation policy makes bank lending decisions more sensitive to officer reports. The threat of rotation improves communication because self‐reporting bad news has a smaller negative effect on an officer's career prospects than bad news exposed by a successor.     

Price Setting in the Euro Area: Some Stylized Facts from Individual Producer Price Data

This paper summarizes the microevidence on the setting of producer prices in the euro area. The main findings are: (i) 21% of producer prices are adjusted each month, (ii) producer prices are changed more frequently and by smaller amounts than consumer prices (even after controlling for product characteristics), (iii) price decreases are relatively frequent, (iv) inflation correlates positively with the difference between the frequency of price increases and decreases, and (v) there is substantial variation in price flexibility across sectors, which can be explained in part by differences in the cost structure, the degree of competition, and the level of sectoral inflation.     

Disclosure Quality and the Excess Value of Diversification

For a sample of U.S. firm years from 1980 through 1996 we document a positive association between the excess value of diversification as defined by Berger and Ofek [1995] and security analyst ratings of voluntary disclosure as developed by the Association for Investment Management and Research. We also examine an alternative proxy for disclosure quality that captures the degree of segment disaggregation and document a positive association between this measure and excess value. Our results are robust to controls for firm performance and information environment. Taken together, these phenomena suggest that disclosure plays a monitoring role in disciplining management's investment decisions. However, tests of the association between disclosure and the value of firms' investment spending yield mixed results.     

Ordering Uncertain Options under Inflation: A Note

Stochastic dominance rules (SD) have been extended to the case where investors are allowed to borrow and lend at the riskless interest rate. Stochastic dominance rules with a riskless asset (SDR) are much more effective than SD rules. However, it seems that this benefit is eliminated by an uncertain inflation, since riskless assets become risky once uncertain inflation is considered. We prove in this paper that SDR criteria are valid also in the face of uncertain (and independent) inflation. Moreover, while the mean-variance (MV) efficient set increases with uncertain inflation, the stochastic dominance efficient sets decrease.     

GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS AND PREFERENTIAL ACCESS TO U.S. MARKETS

The United States imports around 25% of its merchandise under some form of preferential trade regime. This paper examines both the origins and the consequences of U.S. trade preferences in the context of the gravity model of international trade. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it provides estimates of the impact of preferential trade regimes in terms of access to U.S. markets while controlling for geostrategic interests that determine the countries that are offered commercial preferences. Second, we consider not only country eligibility but also the extent of utilization of these programs. Third, we provide new estimates of the impact of transport and transactions costs beyond distance. In the standard gravity estimation, we find that beneficiaries of these preferences, except GSP, export between two and three times more than the excluded countries, after controlling for country and product characteristics. Nonetheless, the estimated effects of these programs are lower when controlling for utilization ratios and selection biases due to the correlation between geopolitical interests and the standard explanatory variables used in the gravity model of trade, such as countries' geographic distance from the United States.     

Public Inputs in the Transportation Service Decision-Making Process

This paper presents an empirical investigation of willingness to participate in public meetings to provide consumer inputs for designing public transportation services. The low levels of interest in participation among elderly, low-income consumers and high levels of interest among consumers of specific transportation modes were critically evaluated.     

United States Trade in Consumer Products

The United States has experienced a large trade deficit in consumer products. This paper argues that the deficit is due in part to the institutional and behavioral frameworks in which consumer products are marketed. The existence of an effective mass distribution system, a large market relative to promotion expenditures and the change-orientation of the consumer can influence greatly the ability of nations to expand markets and stimulate sales of consumer products. These factors prevalent in the American economy have attracted imports. In contrast, their absence in the economies of our trading partners has limited our access to foreign markets. Policy implications of this situation and areas for further research are identified and discussed.     

Which Microfinance Institutions Are Becoming More Cost Effective with Time? Evidence from a Mixture Model

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) play a key role in many developing countries. Utilizing data from Eastern Europe and Central Asia, MFIs are found to generally operate with lower costs the longer they are in operation. Given the differences in operating environments, subsidies, and organizational form, this finding of increasing cost effectiveness may not aptly characterize all MFIs. Estimation of a mixture model reveals that roughly half of the MFIs are able to operate with reduced costs over time, while half do not. Among other things, we find that larger MFIs offering deposits and those receiving lower subsidies operate more cost effectively over time.