Expectations and the Treasury Bill-Federal Funds Rate Spread over Recent Monetary Policy Regimes

This paper shows that the spread between the 3–month Treasury bill and the federal funds rate has significant predictive power for the future change in the federal funds rate during the volatile nonborrowed reserves operating regime, but it has less and no predictive power during the borrowed reserves regime and the federal funds targeting regime, respectively. These findings suggest that Treasury bill rates forecast future federal funds rates most accurately when the Federal Reserve follows a well-defined rule that does not smooth the impact of shocks on the federal funds rate.     

Original Issue High Yield Bonds: Aging Analyses of Defaults,Exchanges, and Calls

This paper presents an aging analysis of 741 high yield bonds and finds default, exchange, and call percentages substantially higher than reported in earlier studies. By December 31, 1988, cumulative defaults are 34 percent for bonds issued in 1977 and 1978 and range from 19 to 27 percent for issue years 1979–1983 and from 3 to 9 percent for issue years 1984–1986. Exchanges are also a significant factor although they often are followed by default. Moreover, a significant percentage of high yield debt, 26–47 percent for 1977–1982, has been called. By December 31, 1988, approximately one third of the bonds issued in 1977–1982 has defaulted or been exchanged, and an additional one third had been called. On average, only 28 percent of these issues are still outstanding. There is no evidence that early results for more recent issue years differ markedly from issue years 1977 to 1982.     

A Note: Natural Generalization of Black-Scholes in the Presence of Skewness,Using Stable Processes

The Lognormal price model is generalized to the class of Log-Stable Processes, a family which possesses self-similarity properties usually only associated with the Lognormal, but which, more generally, can model negatively skewed distributions of return. This generalization appears to explain several discrepancies between the Black-Scholes Model and observed market phenomena, such as the variation of implied volatility of option price with exercise price and term to expiry, and the nonzero probability of bankruptcy or ‘crash’. It will be argued that the class of maximally negatively skewed Stable distributions (a class which, paradoxically, contains the normal) may be utilized to produce models which imply these phenomena naturally.     

Cream-Skimming or Profit-Sharing? The Curious Role of Purchased Order Flow

Purchased order flow refers to the practice of dealers or trading locales paying brokers for retail order flow. It is alleged that such agreements are used to “cream skim” uninformed liquidity trades, leaving the information-based trades to established markets. We develop a test of this hypothesis, using a model of the stochastic process of trades. We then estimate the model for a sample of stocks known to be used in order purchase agreements that trade on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Cincinnati Stock Exchange. Our main empirical result is that there is a significant difference in the information content of orders executed in New York and Cincinnati, and that this difference is consistant with cream-skimming.     

Forward Discount Bias: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?*

A risk-averse US investor adjusts the shares of a portfolio of short-term nominal domestic and foreign assets to maximize expected utility. The optimal strategy is to respond immediately to all new information which arrives weekly. We develop a model to estimate the cost of optimizing less frequently and find that it is generally very small. For example, if the investor adjusts portfolio shares every three months, an average expected utility loss of 0.16 per cent p.a. is incurred. Hence, slight opportunity costs of frequent optimization may outweigh the benefits. This result may help explain forward discount bias.     

Earnings Quality, Insider Trading, and Cost of Capital

Previous research argues that earnings quality, measured as the unsigned abnormal accruals, proxies for information asymmetries that affect cost of capital. We examine this argument directly in two stages. In the first stage, we estimate firms' exposure to an earnings quality factor in the context of a Fama‐French three‐factor model augmented by the return on a factor‐mimicking portfolio that is long in low earnings quality firms and short in high earnings quality firms. In the second stage, we examine whether the earnings quality factor is priced and whether insider trading is more profitable for firms with higher exposure to that factor. Generally speaking, we find evidence consistent with pricing of the earnings quality factor and insiders trading more profitably in firms with higher exposure to that factor.     

Enforcement Mechanisms Discouraging Black–American Presence in Suburban Detroit

In metropolitan Detroit, scholars have long observed that geographic space is racialized in the sense that black Americans are not welcome in many suburban communities. This extends beyond housing segregation: black drivers are not wanted on many suburban streets. While the existence of racial animosity has been documented, the enforcement mechanisms utilized to ‘protect’ certain geographic areas from black presence have rarely been quantified and dissected. This study examines police behavior toward black motorists who were arrested during routine traffic stops in the Detroit suburb of Eastpointe. Comparison of search, arrest, and handcuff patterns of white and black motorists indicates that police bias harms blacks. Rather than simply being anti‐black, patterns of police behavior in Eastpointe enforce racialized space, signaling where black presence is tolerated and where it is discouraged. Depuis longtemps, les intellectuels observent la racialisation de l’espace géographique, au sens que les Américains noirs ne sont pas les bienvenus dans de nombreuses communautés de banlieue de la métropole de Détroit. La tendance dépasse la ségrégation des logements: les automobilistes noirs sont indésirables dans bien des rues de banlieue. Si l’existence d’une animosité raciale a été documentée, les mécanismes coercitifs utilisés pour ‘protéger’ certaines zones géographiques d’une présence noire ont rarement été quantifiés ou disséqués. Cette étude examine l’attitude policière vis‐à‐vis des conducteurs noirs arrêtés au cours de contrôles de routine dans la banlieue de Eastpointe, à Détroit. Une comparaison des types de fouilles, arrestations et menottages d’automobilistes blancs et noirs révèle un préjugé de la police au détriment des noirs. Au lieu d’être simplement anti‐noirs, les types de comportement policier à Eastpointe impose un espace racialisé, indiquant là où la présence noire est tolérée et là où elle est dissuadée.