外盘：世界看中国

铜：中国成为维稳主力如其他商品一样,铜对世界经济的负面消息有短期调整的要求。IMF对世界经济的预测值为-1.3％以及将因此带来的失业率增加,都对铜施加了压力。而两个因素会支持铜价：3月份中国精炼铜的进口量创纪录;铜减产的预期。虽然,中国经济的增速可能无法达到预期,但仍远远强于其他几个世界主要经济体。最近因负面经济消息而停止上涨的铜价将在不久找到支撑,并保持稳定上涨的态势。     

Reorienting consumer education using social learning theory: sustainable development via authentic consumer pedagogy

The paper illustrates the growing interest in understanding consumer behaviour through a social learning theory (SLT) lens, and explains the recently launched United Nations Decade for Education for Sustainable Development (ESD). Then, the discussion turns to an overview of a recently developed ESD/SLT integrated theoretical framework, which is then applied to consumer education via an authentic pedagogy. The paper highlights the rich potential of authentic intellectual work in the form of observational learning by augmenting ESD within authentic consumer education curricula.     

Strategic choice during economic crisis: Domestic market position,organizational capabilities and export flexibility

This study examines how sudden shrinkage of domestic demand affects firm-level export performance. Using the Asian economic crisis as a natural experiment, we show that while the industrial organization (IO) economics and resource-based view (RBV) apply well in the pre-crisis period, the real options perspective does a better job in explaining firms’ efforts to increase exports in the post-crisis period. Specifically, using a real options perspective, we show how sudden change in domestic demand provides benefits to those firms that have invested in flexible capabilities while those firms that are locked in with inflexible resources fail to change. We find that the positive relationship between a firm's domestic market position and export intensity becomes stronger in the post-crisis than the pre-crisis period. Further, we find a positive relationship between non-location-bound flexible capabilities such as R&D and export intensity and a negative relationship between location-bound inflexible capabilities such as advertising and export intensity. These relationships become more pronounced in the post-crisis period.     

Spatial Interaction,Spatial Multipliers and Hospital Competition

The hospital competition literature shows that estimates of the effect of local market structure (concentration) on pricing (competition) are sensitive to geographic market definition. Our spatial lag model approach effects smoothing of the explanatory variables across the discrete market boundaries, resulting in robust estimates of the impact of market structure on hospital pricing, which can be used to estimate the full effect of changes in prices inclusive of spillovers that cascade through the neighboring hospital markets. The full amount, generated by the spatial multiplier effect, is a robust estimate of the impacts of market factors on hospital competition. We contrast ordinary least squares and spatial lag estimates to demonstrate the importance of robust estimation in analysis of hospital market competition. In markets where concentration is relatively high before a proposed merger, we demonstrate that Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) can lead to the wrong policy conclusion while the more conservative lag estimates do not.     

The future of the uplands

Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable upland communities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.     

The price effects of cross‐market mergers: theory and evidence from the hospital industry

We consider the effect of mergers between firms whose products are not viewed as direct substitutes for the same good or service, but are bundled by a common intermediary. Focusing on hospital mergers across distinct geographic markets, we show that such combinations can reduce competition among merging hospitals for inclusion in insurers' networks, leading to higher prices (or lower‐quality care). Using data on hospital mergers from 1996–2012, we find support that this mechanism operates within state boundaries: cross‐market, within‐state hospital mergers yield price increases of 7%–9 % for acquiring hospitals, whereas out‐of‐state acquisitions do not yield significant increases.     

Shorting costs and profitability of long–short strategies

We examine how the profitability of long–short arbitrage strategies based on anomalies is affected after adjustment for two shorting costs: implicit cost due to unavailability of stocks in the short-leg to sell short and loan fees actually paid to stock lenders. The combined shorting cost amounts to almost 40 percent of long–short gross returns over the sample period from January 2006 to December 2017. After adjustment for these shorting costs, long–short arbitrage profits are thus reduced by almost 40 percent. Even after adjustment for risk, the proportion of shorting costs is also substantial. If other trade-related transaction costs are considered, long–short arbitrage profits would be reduced further. Our results provide explicit evidence that casts doubt on the profitability of long-short arbitrage strategies based on anomalies.     

Three current account balances: A “Semi-Structuralist” interpretation

Three current account imbalances – one very large deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) – are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange rate adjustment. According to the estimates, a large part of the U.S. current account deficit (nearly 2 percentage points of the 2006 deficit of 5(1/2)% of GDP) will undergo an adjustment process that involves real depreciation in its exchange rate. For Japan, a little more than 1 percentage point (of GDP) of the current account surplus is found to require an exchange rate movement (real appreciation) as the surpluses adjust down. For the Euro area, less than half a percentage point of its current account surplus is found to require an adjustment via real appreciation.