THE HYBRID PLAN: A PROPOSAL FOR FEDERAL CREDIT REFORM

Federal credit subsidies are one of the largest areas of government activity. However, the Unified Budget treats lending in a highly misleading manner, and federal credit management is inconsistent and deceptive. These oversights have contributed to both the rapid rise of federal lending and the financial crises facing several credit agencies during recent years. Credit reform is a vital issue both to protect the government's huge financial stake and to ensure the success of credit programs.
This paper critiques previous proposals for credit reform–each suffering from major implementation problems–and suggests an alternative. The Hybrid Plan combines aspects of earlier proposals and eliminates several disadvantages of each. One could implement the Hybrid Plan under current conditions, but it also is consistent with further improvement in federal credit management.     

The Effects of Manufacturer Disclosure on Consumer Perceptions of Private Brand Grocery Product Attributes

New food label disclosures are frequently proposed. One such proposal, the identification of manufacturer or packer of private label food items, has potentially far-reaching effects upon food choice decision making and ultimately upon the cost and availability of private label food products. This experimental study examined consumer perceptions of private brand grocery product attributes before and after manufacturer disclosure. Attribute evaluation scores from the experiment were compared against each other and against a control group. Subjects appeared to be influenced by the information, but the effects varied by product and by attribute. The overall impact of mandatory manufacturer disclosure should be carefully weighed against the consumer's right to know. Much more needs to be known about consumer use of this information before implementing this requirement.     

Dividends and Losses

An annual loss is essentially a necessary condition for dividend reductions in firms with established earnings and dividend records: 50.9% of 167 NYSE firms with losses during 1980–1985 reduced dividends, versus 1.0% of 440 firms without losses. As hypothesized by Miller and Modigliani, dividend reductions depend on whether earnings include unusual items that are likely to temporarily depress income. Dividend reductions are more likely given greater current losses, less negative unusual items, and more persistent earnings difficulties. Dividend policy has information content in that knowledge that a firm has reduced dividends improves the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings.     

Variations in Trading Volume,Return Volatility,and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models

Patterns in stock market trading volume, trading costs, and return volatility are examined using New York Stock Exchange data from 1988. Intraday test results indicate that, for actively traded firms trading volume, adverse selection costs, and return volatility are higher in the first half-hour of the day. This evidence is inconsistent with the Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) model which predicts that trading costs are low when volume and return volatility are high. Interday test results show that, for actively traded firms, trading volume is low and adverse selection costs are high on Monday, which is consistent with the predictions of the Foster and Viswanathan (1990) model.     

What Can America Learn from the British Tax System?

This paper examines elements of British tax policy and discusses their implications for the US, where several recent proposals would mirror aspects of the British system. These include reducing filing requirements under the individual income tax, indexing capital gains for inflation, cutting mortgage interest deductions, enacting a value added tax, and integrating the corporate and personal income taxes. The paper also discusses implications of the poll tax for tax reform. Britain and America have made different choices involving equity, efficiency, simplicity and other goals. These choices offer the chance to help identify the impact of tax policy. JEL classification: H20.     

MUNICIPAL CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION

Despite widespread concern and discussion, no consensus exists concerning the causes of the "infrastructure crisis" or its implications for the efficiency of government decision-making more generally. We investigate several models of the determination of local public capital expenditures. Using Euler equation methods, we cannot reject the hypothesis that construction spending is determined by unconstrained, forward looking municipal planning. Consistent with this result, the stochastic structure of resource flows is an important feature of the determination of construction spending. Only unanticipated changes in a community's resources alter its demand for structures, with an unanticipated increase of one dollar increasing current construction spending by about 5.6 cents.     

EVOLUTION OF THE OIL MARKET AND ENERGY SECURITY POLICY

This paper examines a number of issues that affect the U.S. government's role in responding to future energy crises. The paper argues that we do not adequately understand why oil prices behaved as they did during the two price shocks of the 1970s, and that the market has evolved in ways that will alter future price behavior compared with that of the past. Consequently, it is unwise to formulate energy policies on the basis of specific forecasts of market conditions, or to plan to fight repetitions of past oil market crises. To be effective, energy security policy must be designed to motivate the private sector and other governments to respond in ways consistent with policy objectives.