Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market

The wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.     

Do specialized board committees impact the transparency of corporate political disclosure? Evidence from S&P 500 companies

This study examines how the specific attributes of one type of voluntary corporate governance mechanism, a specialized political contribution committee, improves the transparency of corporate political disclosure (CPD). The results demonstrate that the existence of a committee that establishes and reviews key political activities and disclosure policies, particularly one composed entirely of outside directors, significantly enhances the transparency of corporate political disclosure, and reveal that an under-studied board committee, the political contribution committee, effectively improves CPD transparency. The results are consistent with agency theory and further support the more generalizable idea that specialized governance mechanisms (e.g., a political contribution committee) and fully independent committees lead to more transparent disclosure. Finally, the results suggest that the existence of a political contribution committee and committee independence are channels to improve CPD transparency. Public-policy makers and regulators seeking to enhance CPD transparency might consider implementing regulations that mandate or recommend these governance mechanisms as best practice.     

Mean–variance and mean–semivariance portfolio selection: a multivariate nonparametric approach

While univariate nonparametric estimation methods have been developed for estimating returns in mean-downside risk portfolio optimization, the problem of handling possible cross-correlations in a vector of asset returns has not been addressed in portfolio selection. We present a novel multivariate nonparametric portfolio optimization procedure using kernel-based estimators of the conditional mean and the conditional median. The method accounts for the covariance structure information from the full set of returns. We also provide two computational algorithms to implement the estimators. Via the analysis of 24 French stock market returns, we evaluate the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of both portfolio selection algorithms against optimal portfolios selected by classical and univariate nonparametric methods for three highly different time periods and different levels of expected return. By allowing for cross-correlations among returns, our results suggest that the proposed multivariate nonparametric method is a useful extension of standard univariate nonparametric portfolio selection approaches.     

Tourism and regional development a genetic approach

Research on tourism and regional development should include a temporal perspective, for studies of contemporary and economic impact are, by themselves, insufficient to explain tourism's contribution to regional development. Such a genetic approach is used to examine the growth and impact of tourism in Queenstown, New Zealand. Events and interrelationships are examined over the last twenty-five years to show the process of growth, changes in the patterns of local and outside involvement and the increasing sophistication of a resort once based largely on scenic factors alone. Certain sectors of the industry have been developed primarily by individuals and companies from the local region, while others have been dominated by outsiders. Although the former contribute the most to regional development through local participation in the development process, external developments have also generated complementary growth. A consideration of events over a certain time span allows these different factors to be placed more clearly in the context of regional development.     

Protectionism in EC-US trade relations

During the 1950s and early 1960s the trading interests of the US and the EC generally coincided, with the result that tariff negotiations could be held successfully. Since that time the interests of the US and the EC have diverged somewhat, and pressures for increased protection have arisen.     

Buchbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung