电商推荐商品的网络线索对消费者购买意愿的影响研究

依据消费者网页浏览数据向消费者推荐近似产品已经成为电商提高销售绩效的重要手段。实证研究发现:电商推荐商品所处的网页位置和网络口碑方向均显著正向影响消费者的购买意愿,而推荐商品的网络口碑数量对消费者购买意愿的影响弱显著;产品涉入度在电商平台推荐商品所处的网页位置、网络口碑数量及网络口碑方向对消费者购买意愿的影响中均起到了调节作用。研究结论对电商平台利用大数据对消费者开展有针对性的网络营销具有重要的借鉴意义,电商平台在向消费者推荐产品时,应将优质产品置于网页靠前位置,加强对网络口碑方向和数量的监管,并针对不同产品涉入度设计营销策略。     

新时期农民工回流问题研究

当前,受全球金融危机的影响,我国出现了近几十年来罕见的农民工回流现象。文章运用CES经济增长模型对新形势下农民工回流问题进行实证分析,发现城市产出水平、城市工资水平、资本价格、农村收入、农村劳动力外出打工付出的成本、城市失业劳动力总量等是影响农民工回流的主要因素,并提出了解决农民工回流问题的针对性措施。     

经济政策不确定性与企业投资趋同行为

文章以2003-2017年A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本,考察经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性的升高会显著增强企业投资趋同行为,该影响效应在信息优势企业有所减弱,在资产不可逆程度较高企业有所增强。分行业检验发现,在管制性行业以及景气度较低行业中,经济政策不确定性对企业投资趋同行为的影响减弱。进一步研究发现,在经济政策不确定性不断攀升的背景下,实体投资趋同性会带来更为严重的金融化,特别是在行业实体投资总体趋于放缓的情况下,企业金融化现象更加严重。该研究为宏观经济波动下企业投资趋同行为提供了经验证据。     

上市公司与注册会计师的关系分析及治理策略

市场经济的发展,财产所有权和经营权的分离,导致了股份公司和审计的出现。本文分析了上市公司和注册会计师之间的关系,提出了正确处理两者关系的治理策略。     

中国金融系统风险溢出效应研究——基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络

文章基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络方法,从静态和动态分别度量我国金融系统不同子市场间的风险联动水平及变动趋势。研究结果表明,我国金融系统风险溢出效应整体水平较高,各市场间联动性较强;市场内部滞后效应大于市场之间溢出效应,两两有向溢出效应具有强不对称性;作为我国金融系统的风险中心,货币市场始终处于风险溢出方,但在金融危机时期,其对外风险溢出效应相对减弱,而大宗商品市场、资本市场、房地产市场等其余市场的风险溢出效应相对增强。值得注意的是,当前我国金融系统整体风险溢出水平较高,市场间风险相关性较强,需要进一步加强系统性风险的监测与防范。     

Behavior patterns of investment strategies under Roy’s safety-first principle

The safety-first principle is a natural motivational factor in decision making, and is closely related to certain popular heuristics such as satisficing. We provide a systematic analysis of optimal portfolio choice under Roy’s safety-first principle by examining and comparing the behavior patterns of three popular investment strategies: the optimal constant-rebalanced portfolio, dynamic-rebalanced portfolio and buy-and-hold strategies. Our results indicate the importance of a match between the investment strategy, the investment goal, and the investment horizon. We also develop a geometric approach to investigate the relationships among the safety-first, expected utility, and mean-variance models and offer an explanation for the long-standing debate concerning different patterns of time-diversification effects.     

融入策划思想的规划思路探讨——以同里景区控制性规划为例

经济全球化的大背景下,投资体制、资源和利益分配体制都快速的摆脱原来计划经济的轨道,越来越受市场规律的引导和制约,在投资渠道越来越多元的今天,建设程序也有了很大的不同,这些变革都要求我们在规划过程中打破原来以物质空问规划为重心的规划方式,全方位的革新规划的技术方法和思路.为了在规划过程中真正理解规划实施的最重要因素"市场需求",我们尝试在同里景区控制性规划中借鉴市场营销等方面的理论,引入市场策划的思想,力求让规划成果兼顾投资方利益以及公共利益,使之在实施过程中具有更高的可行性和可操作性.     

物流信息系统监控在制造型工厂的应用与思考

从QCD角度,阐述了均衡性、先入先出(FIFO)遵守率、送货准时率的内容、指标及计算方法,介绍了2011年度神龙公司襄阳工厂运用零件流系统后台数据监控物流作业标准化取得的效果,同时指出了后期改善的方向.     

Computing DSGE models with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility

This paper compares different solution methods for computing the equilibrium of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with recursive preferences such as those in Epstein and Zin, 1989, Epstein and Zin, 1991 and stochastic volatility. Models with these two features have recently become popular, but we know little about the best ways to implement them numerically. To fill this gap, we solve the stochastic neoclassical growth model with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility using four different approaches: second- and third-order perturbation, Chebyshev polynomials, and value function iteration. We document the performance of the methods in terms of computing time, implementation complexity, and accuracy. Our main finding is that perturbations are competitive in terms of accuracy with Chebyshev polynomials and value function iteration while being several orders of magnitude faster to run. Therefore, we conclude that perturbation methods are an attractive approach for computing this class of problems.     

Bank ownership,privatization, and performance: Evidence from a transition country

This paper combines the static effect of ownership and the dynamic effect of privatization on bank performance in China over 1995–2010, reporting a significantly higher performance by private intermediaries – joint stock commercial banks and city commercial banks – relative to state-owned commercial banks. However, publicly traded banks, subject to multiple monitoring and vetting in capital markets, perform better regardless of ownership status. The privatization of banks has improved performance with respect to revenue inflow and efficiency gains in the short- or long-run (initial public offerings). The positive long-run effect is more relevant and significant for banking institutions with minority foreign ownership. Moreover, this paper innovatively estimates interest income efficiency and non-interest income efficiency at the same time. The results suggest that Chinese banks are much more efficient in generating interest income than raising non-interest revenue, although the latter aspect has improved significantly during the sample period.