Clarence Hatry

Hatry was one of those curiously un-English figures with whom the English peiodically find themselves unable to cope. J.K. Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929     

The future of the uplands

Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable upland communities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.     

Diagrammatic Approach to Capacity-Constrained Price Discrimination

This paper presents a diagrammatic solution to the firm's profit-maximizing price discrimination problem in the face of capacity constraints. Airlines, hotels, and other firms practice yield management, allocating fixed capacity to customer groups paying different prices. In these cases, the firm's short-run problem is not a decision about production levels, but it is one of allocating a fixed number of output units among customers. Our diagram shows that the conditions for profit-maximizing price discrimination are very different under these circumstances than in the standard model in which the firm is not constrained by capacity.     

Measuring the social costs of suboptimal combinations of policy instruments: A general framework and an example

Since most agricultural programs employ two or more policy instruments simultaneously, it is notable thai little research has attempted to find optimal instrument combinations and no research exists which evaluates the social costs (unrealized benefits) of combining instruments suboptimally. In our paper we report a simple and feasible method to find optimal policy instrument combinations, and we provide the first general, formal approach to measuring the social costs of suboptimal policy instrument combinations. Our approach is illustrated in an analysis for live major U.S. crops (corn, feed grains, wheat, rice, cotton). The simple model we employ for the illustration suggests that except lor the feed grains program, the observed programs combined policy instruments quite suboptimally. We conclude that agricultural economics research now can and should begin placing increased emphasis on studying optimal policy instrument combinations.     

Shocking Stories

The paper provides a survey of methods that decompose multivariate series into permanent and transitory components by using ideas drawn from the co-integration literature. We adopt a two stage procedure to effect the decomposition. In the first stage a basic set of permanent and transitory components is formed by using standard definitions of the shocks which they are constituted from. The resulting measurements are not unique and further information needs to be employed to get uniqueness. Such information can come in many forms but a particularly important one involves the values of the long-run multipliers for permanent shocks that are available from many calibrated models. A comparison of the methods of effecting the decomposition is performed using a well known data set.     

Cost control for computers: Applying bread-and-butter principles

During the 1960s, when it became clear that computers would establish a foothold in business, executives were urged to ensure that the new machines were used effectively. Applying EDP to critical decision and problem areas is still important. However, because of skyrocketing EDP costs and staggering investments in equipment and systems, it now pays to become equally concerned about EDP productivity. Unfortunately, many executives shy away because they lack technical expertise. This is not justified because familiar approaches to cost control that work in other functional areas can be successfully applied to EDP. The author describes how the executive can begin to cope with improving EDP efficiency without getting bogged down in a morass of technical details.