The Emergence of Individual Knowledge in a Group Setting: Mitigating Cognitive Fallacies

Research in psychology has found that subjects regularly exhibit a conjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Additional research has led to the finding of other fallacies in probability judgment, including disjunction and conditional fallacies. Such analyses of judgments are critical because of the substantial amount of probability judgment done in accounting, business and organizational settings. However, most previous research has been conducted in the environment of a single decision maker. Since business and other organizational environments also employ groups, it is important to determine the impact of groups on such cognitive fallacies. This paper finds that groups substantially mitigate the impact of probability judgment fallacies among the sample of subjects investigated. The key finding of this paper is the analysis of the apparent manner in which groups make such decisions. A statistical analysis, based on a binomial distribution, suggests that groups investigated here did not use consensus. Instead, if any one member of the group has correct knowledge about the probability relationships, then the group uses that knowledge and does not exhibit fallacy in probability judgment. Having a computational model of the group decision making process provides a basis for developing computational models that can be used to simulate “mirror worlds” of reality or model decision making in real world settings.     

Challenges and Risks in the International Monetary System

SPECIAL ISSUE OF OPEN ECONOMIES REVIEW

Challenges and Risks in the International Monetary System     

Managing careers in downsizing firms

The literature on managing careers has traditionally been based on the twin assumptions of organizational growth and increased opportunities for individual advancement. Large-scale layoffs in the 1980s and continued downsizing in the 1990s, however, have left organizations questioning how to develop the careers of their employees under conditions of diminished resources and have left employees wondering how to manage their own careers under conditions of diminished opportunities. This article examines the issues involved in managing careers in downsizing firms from both the organization's and the individual's perspective. In addition, it explores not only short-term tactics for handling career disruptions which occur at the time of downsizing but also longer-term strategies for managing careers during times of little or no organizational growth. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The effects of product knowledge on the evaluation of warranteed brands

This study explores the effects of consumer knowledge on respondents' evaluations of both known and unknown brands that include either a 2-year or a 20-year warranty. Both experts and nonexperts evaluated warranty as more important than brand name in their product quality decision. Warranty length was positively correlated with product quality perceptions for both known and unknown brands. With the unknown brand, nonexperts perceived significant improvement in product quality when the warranty length was increased from 2 to 20 years. For the known brand, nonexperts perceived little difference in quality for the two warranty lengths. Experts indicated no significant differences in perceived quality, given the four brand/warranty-length conditions. The results indicate that warranty length is most heavily weighted as a cue to product quality when consumers are not highly knowledgeable, and the brand name is not well known. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Innovation and performance in the hotel industry

The growing competition in the hotel industry is one of the main challenges of this segment, which increasingly depends on the ability to innovate. Thus, this article aims to analyze the impact of innovation on the performance of employees and hotel organizations. This is an exploratory study, with a quantitative approach using a structured computer-administered questionnaire to 73 managers of hotel chains, located in Brazil, which correspond to 792 hotels. Data analysis used multiple linear regression method with SPSS software to find out the relationship between the factors of innovation (communication, processes, leadership, and strategy) and the performance of employees and hotel organizations. Results show that the factors of communication, leadership, and strategy directly influence the performance of the employees. However, only the leadership factor directly affects the performance of hotel organizations.     

Sunkist Growers: Refreshing the Brand

The objective of this case is to introduce students to what is possibly the most complex agricultural cooperative in the United States and learn more about the economic issues involved in citrus production globally. Students are asked to analyze a strategy built around brand loyalty with higher costs and an inability to dictate to growers what varieties are most valuable to retailers.     

Airport stops and flights on small airplanes as inhibitors of tourism-related air travel: A case study

This article discusses the extent to which prospective tourists' concerns about airport stops and flights on small airplanes inhibit air travel to tourist destinations, drawing on data from telephone surveys conducted in the Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas area. Respondents were queried about the extent to which one airport stop, two airport stops, and one airport stop followed by a flight on a small, propeller-powered airplane, respectively, would deter them from flying to a destination 1096 miles (1764 km) away. Findings suggest that marketers of similar destinations in similarly distant markets that are accessible by air only after two airport stops risk having their promotional appeals ignored by roughly half those who would prefer to reach such destinations by air. Moreover, those most concerned about such flight schedules were more likely than other respondents to have high incomes and to use the Internet to obtain vacation or travel information.     

Empirical Tests of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis When Environmental Regulation is Endogenous

The pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) posits that production within polluting industries will shift to locations with lax environmental regulation. While straightforward, the existing empirical literature is inconclusive owing to two shortcomings. First, unobserved heterogeneity and measurement error are typically ignored due to the lack of a credible, traditional instrumental variable for regulation. Second, geographic spillovers have not been adequately incorporated into tests of the PHH. We overcome these issues utilizing two novel identification strategies within a model incorporating spillovers. Using US state‐level data, own environmental regulation negatively impacts inbound foreign direct investment. Moreover, endogeneity is both statistically and economically relevant. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.