An Easily Implemented Framework for Forecasting Ticket Sales to Performing Arts Events

This paper presents an easily used framework for modeling ticket sales to performing arts and entertainment events. Unlike existing efforts in this area, our framework allows us to: (1) model demand for events that consist of more than a single performance; (2) account for the influence of promotional effort on ticket sales; and (3) account for sellouts of some performances. The framework is applied to ticket sales for a university theater company, where it predicts ticket sales well in both an estimation and holdout sample. We discuss how the framework has influenced the company's marketing decisions.     

Drivers of Durable Peace: The Role of Justice in Negotiating Civil War Termination

Attaining durable peace after a civil war has become a major challenge, as many negotiated settlements relapse into violence. How can civil war negotiations be conducted and peace agreements formulated so as to contribute to lasting, durable peace? Previous research has focused on the durability of peace agreements, measured as the absence of violence. This study develops an index to measure durable peace for a period of 8 years after the agreement had been reached, and evaluates the new measure using an existing data set. We ask whether impacts on durable peace are similar or different to those found for the durability of agreements. This question suggests a number of hypotheses that are evaluated with 16 cases of peace agreements. Stable agreements are shown to mediate the relationship between equality provisions in peace agreements and durable peace, and to also mediate the relationship between procedural justice and the reconciliation component of durable peace. Interestingly, economic stability is not a dividend of peace agreements.     

Developing a Leadership-Rich Culture: The Missing Link to Creating a Market-Focused Organization

Much has been written about the need for organizations to be more market-focused. Authors have addressed a myriad of constructs which promote the realization of the marketing concept. This article examines leadership and its development in the context of creating a market-focused organization. It links the areas of leadership development, leadership skills, and internal customer culture to the strategy development process. The emphasis in a leadership-rich culture is on the relationships between leaders, followers, and customers. This idea parallels existing thought in the relationship marketing literature touting the benefits of relationships in buyer-seller partnerships and network structures. In addition, this article offers a leadership deployment process to create a market-focused organization from top to bottom.     

Strategic investment flexibility for MNE success in Russia: Evolving beyond entry modes

Many American multinational enterprises (MNEs) are currently active in Russia despite the turbulence encountered in that transitional economy. Most seem to have entered as an extension of their global strategies with a long-term horizon. While some entered with considerable involvement and substantial investment, others followed a more cautious or incremental path. This article focuses on how MNE strategies have evolved after entry and describes six strategic approaches. Strategic investment flexibility is found to depend upon a company 's original entry strategy and tolerance for risk, as well as its assessment of the legal and political environment, industry conditions, market readiness for its products or services, competition, and the investment required to establish a sustainable competitive position. Keys to successful strategy development are drawn from the experiences of US MNEs which have established growing businesses in the vast Russian market. The strategies of such successful MNEs, however initiated upon entry, usually evolved to a relatively heavy investment position.     

Decision Support Systems in Marketing

The practical application of decision support systems in marketing is still in its infancy, even though academic research has been recommending the use of such systems for years. This is largely due to the lack of a single, generally applicable decision support system. The specific requirements and problems of management are too dissimilar to make the development of one universal decision support system feasible. However, improved PC performance, enhanced market survey methods such as conjoint measurement, and further developed programming tools permit the varying requirements to be fairly flexibly met. The following article describes state-of-the-art know-how regarding the practical utilization of such systems, and addresses the preconditions for employing them. We have included many examples gathered from our own experience with numerous applications.     

Goodwill and dynamic advertising strategies

In this paper, we empirically analyze weekly advertising policies of manufacturing firms in consumer goods markets. We assume firms engage in persuasive advertising, thus policies of firms affect the goodwill of a brand. We introduce a demand and a goodwill production function. A simple transformation of the demand function allows us to identify not only the demand parameters but also the parameters of the goodwill production function. We reconstruct the unobserved goodwill levels using these parameters and past advertising levels. We restrict our attention to Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) strategies which are functions of payoff relevant state variables. Without imposing further restrictions on the dynamic competitive environment, we investigate the relationship between observed advertising strategies—which are assumed to be MPE—and payoff relevant state variables by means of several reduced form specifications. The most important determinant of advertising intensity turns out to be goodwill. We demonstrate that controlling for an advertising campaign significantly improves the explanatory power of the model. JEL Classification L13 . C73 . M30 . M37 I would like to thank Volkswagen Stiftung for the generous financial support which made this research possible.     

Modeling Methods for Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper introduces new forms, sampling and estimation approaches fordiscrete choice models. The new models include behavioral specifications oflatent class choice models, multinomial probit, hybrid logit, andnon-parametric methods. Recent contributions also include new specializedchoice based sample designs that permit greater efficiency in datacollection. Finally, the paper describes recent developments in the use ofsimulation methods for model estimation. These developments are designed toallow the applications of discrete choice models to a wider variety ofdiscrete choice problems.     

Non-financial Determinants of Retirement: A Literature Review

Retirement is often concentrated at specific ages—in particular the ‘normal retirement age’ and an ‘early retirement age’. Financial incentives cannot fully explain this. Moreover, the participation effect of a higher normal retirement age importantly exceeds the encompassing income effect. Based on a literature survey, we conclude that social norms, default options, and reference-dependent utility are likely explanations for the individual propensity to retire at specific retirement ages. Further empirical research on non-financial determinants of retirement is needed to fully understand individual retirement behavior.     

Heterogeneity and exchange: Safe-conducts in Medieval Spain

During a time when religious animosities were reaching their peak in Medieval Europe leading up to the violent crusades, Christians, Jews, and Muslims residing in close proximity in Medieval Spain experienced a period of relative peace, prosperity, and cultural exchange. This historical episode, referred to as La Convivencia, or the coexistence, is a puzzle to many period historians. This paper argues that this anomalistic period arose due to the emergence of commerce, which generated cooperation and mitigated conflict among these heterogeneous groups, à la the Doux-Commerce Thesis of the Scottish Enlightenment. Commercial exchange between Christians, Jews, and Muslims was established through the use of safe-conducts, a promise of protection sold to foreign merchants. This paper details the operation of safe-conducts and the civilizing role that commerce played among Christians, Jews, and Muslims in Medieval Spain.