哈佛商学院隐形冠军

在一次演讲中，有人问我：德国为什么能够成为全球最大的出口国之一？哪些企业贡献最大？我一时语塞，于是开始研究这个问题。     

Estimating demand systems when outcomes are correlated counts

We describe and employ a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting a high-dimensional system of ordinal or count outcome equations. The model is then applied to describe the multiple site recreation demands of individual agents, and we argue that our approach provides advantages relative to existing methods commonly applied in this area. In particular, our model flexibly adjusts to match observed frequencies in trip outcomes, permits a flexible correlation pattern among the sites visited by individuals, and the posterior simulator for fitting this model is relatively easy to implement in practice. We also describe how the posterior simulations produced from the model can be used to conduct a variety of counterfactual experiments, including predicting behavioral changes and describing welfare implications resulting from shifts in exogenous demographic and site characteristics. We illustrate our method using data from the Iowa Lakes Project by modeling the visitation patterns of individuals to a set of twenty-nine large Iowa lakes. Consistent with previous findings in the literature, we see strong evidence that own and cross-price effects on trip demand are negative and positive, respectively, that higher income increases the likelihood of visiting most sites, and that a commonly used indicator of water quality, Secchi transparency, is positively correlated with the number of trips taken. In addition, the correlation structure among the errors reveals a complex pattern in which unobserved factors affecting trip demand are generally (though not strictly) positively correlated across sites. The flexibility and richness with which we are able to characterize the demand system provides a solid platform for counterfactual analysis, where we find significant behavioral and welfare effects from changes in site availability, water quality, and travel costs.     

Perverse committee appointments may foster divide and rule

A plurality-rule spatial committee can select an extreme decision if a bare minority of members prefer the opposite extreme decision: the majority who prefer a moderate decision are immobilised by internal divisions. Consequently, a nominator may appoint candidates with the opposite preference ordering so as to build up the bare minority. Our results may explain why Disraeli extended the franchise to skilled male workers in 1867 against centrist opposition; and why an electorate whose preferences are not polarized may have to choose between extremist candidates.     

Deadline Effects and Inefficient Delay in Bargaining with Endogenous Commitment

Bilateral (sequential) negotiators delay agreements until a deadline if a player that rejects an offer is subsequently committed not to accept any poorer proposal, and if the common discount factor is close enough to one. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, C78, J52.     

投行为何热盼IPO

“卖债券，买债券。我睡觉时还想着债券销售的事儿，居然说起了梦话。”笔者一位任职于某证券公司债券销售交易部的朋友在闲聊时谈到了他现在工作繁忙的情形，都有些不好意思。     

The emergence of English commercial law: Analysis inspired by the Ottoman experience

Thirteenth-century England was a commercial backwater whose trade was dominated by foreigners. To accommodate and encourage foreign merchants, England modified its legal system by creating legal institutions that were available to both domestic and foreign traders. Among the most important of these institutions were streamlined debt collection procedures and mixed juries composed of both Englishmen and foreigners. By introducing institutions that treated locals and foreigners equally, England created a level playing field that enabled English merchants to become increasingly prominent in the later Middle Ages. England's ability to modernize its law was facilitated by the secular nature of English law, the representation of merchants in Parliament, and legal pluralism. Medieval England contrasts sharply with the early modern Ottoman Empire. The latter created special institutions for foreign merchants, which eventually put Ottoman Muslims at a competitive disadvantage.     

Resource allocation and productivity of cereal state farms in Ethiopia

Using a translog production function, cereal production on state farms in Ethiopia between 1980 and 1985 was analyzed. The farms were found to be operating at constant returns to scale. Manual labor was under-utilized, while machinery and other modern inputs were over-utilized. Elasticities of substitution between labor and these over-utilized inputs were low.     

LOCATION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT – THE ISRAELI CASE

This paper reviews and empirically examines the effectiveness of the Israeli government's declared policy to induce the location of high technology industries in developing regions. The first section of the paper reviews the literature on high technology industry location. The second section presents the findings from the analyses of a sample of 53 high technology Israeli firms in regard to their critical locational determinants. The findings corroborate the results reported in other similar studies. High technology industries, primarily those engaged in research and development, appear to favor the large urban concentrations, where agglomeration economies, large pools of skilled workers and high quality educational and cultural facilities exist. High technology firms which choose to locate in peripheral regions engage primarily in production activities and employ larger proportions of unskilled and semi-skilled labor. The average size of these firms is greater than their counterparts, firms located in and around urban concentrations.