A simple model of macroeconomic policy

This paper develops a simple model of macroeconomic policy in which the government minimizes a loss function with inflation and unemployment as arguments, subject to a Phillips curve constraint. The model is solved and a discrete time approximation taken. The model's empirical predictions are derived and some test results are presented.     

Mortgage Refinancing,Adverse Selection,and FHA's Streamline Program

When interest rates decline, borrowers whose houses have appreciated significantly refinance out of FHA, while those whose houses have not do not. We provide evidence of the negative impact of regular (nonstreamline) refinancing in the mid-1980s on the average quality of FHA's surviving business. We demonstrate this adverse selection both informally and econometrically. We also argue that the sharp reduction in the cost of streamline refinancing (limited documentation, no required appraisal, and so on) in FHA's streamline refinance program in 1992 likely reduced the level of adverse selection in the FHA portfolio during the 1993 to 1994 refinancing boom, and we provide quantitative estimates of the resultant reduction in claim rates. While this reduction in cost almost certainly increased the financial viability of FHA during the middle 1990s, it may not in the long run.     

An Experimental Study of Auditor Analytical Review Judgements

This paper provides evidence as to how five factors highlighted in the current UK auditing standard are taken into account by auditors in analytical review (AR) judgements. While the relative importance of particular cues was generally found to be consistent with the standard, certain factors were taken into account only to a marginal extent. Little evidence of configural cue usage was identified. The study also provides evidence of a tendency towards conservatism in the way auditors approach AR. The results suggest both that the potential to substitute AR for other substantive procedures may be realised only imperfectly and that the issue of configural reasoning should be addressed in the auditing standard.     

The Competitive Effects of Advertising in the US Automobile Industry, 1970‐94

Is advertising anticompetitive? One school of thought in industrial economics holds that advertising increases profits and reduces consumer welfare by creating spurious product differentiation and barriers to entry. Another school focuses on the informative character of advertising, claiming that advertising makes markets more competitive and reduces profits by supplying consumers with information about price and quality. We distinguish these views by examining the effect of advertising on competition in the US automobile industry. Our data include advertising, sales, profit, and market-share figures for General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler over a 25-year period from 1970 to 1994.We ask if advertising increases or decreases profitability, controlling for market structure and other factors affecting demand.Wefind that these firms cannot increase their profits above normal levels by increasing their advertising expenditures. This evidence supports the view that advertising serves primarily to transmit information, not to create entry barriers.