Does non-linearity help us understand,model and forecast UK stock and bond returns: evidence from the BEYR

The usefulness of non-linear models to provide accurate estimates and forecasts remains an open empirical debate. This paper examines the nature of the estimated relationships and forecasting power of smooth-transition models for UK stock and bond returns using a range of financial and macroeconomic variables as predictors. Notably, evidence of non-linearity is stronger when the bond-equity yield ratio is used as the transition variable. This ratio measures whether stocks are over (under)-valued relative to bonds and can act as a signal for portfolio managers. In-sample results reveal noticeable differences regarding the nature of relationships between the linear and non-linear setting, while results of a recursive forecasting exercise reveal both statistical and economic improvement over a linear model. Overall, these results support the view that non-linear estimates and forecasts can provide useful information for stock market traders, portfolio managers and policy-makers.     

COPENHAGEN,CANCÚN AND THE LIMITS OF GLOBAL WELFARE ECONOMICS

The rise of a global welfare economics directed at the environmental challenges facing our planet represents a new policy phenomenon. This paper examines the most ambitious attempt so far to put such economics into practice via the Kyoto Protocol and more specifically the Clean Development Mechanism of the Protocol. The Copenhagen and Cancún climate change conferences have put an end to hopes of the Protocol serving as an effective tool in the mitigation of global warming. This failure of the new global welfare economics is the result of flawed principles, not just defective implementation.     

Cheap Imports and the Loss of US Manufacturing Jobs

This study examines the role of international trade and specifically imports from low‐wage countries, in determining patterns of job loss in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2007. Motivated by intuitions from factor‐proportions‐inspired work on offshoring and heterogeneous firms in trade, we build industry‐level measures of import competition. Combining worker data from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics data set, detailed establishment information from the Census of Manufactures and transaction‐level trade data, we find that rising import competition from China and other developing economies increases the likelihood of job loss among manufacturing workers with less than a high school degree; it is not significantly related to job losses for workers with at least a college degree.     

Intergenerational spaces: citizens,political marketing and conceptualising trust in a transitional democracy

Abstract

As the third largest democracy in the world, Indonesia’s relatively peaceful transition from authoritarian rule to democracy deserves academic attention. This study explored the notion of trust and how it could influence electoral behaviour. An intergenerational perspective was used to compare the differences between parents who were familiar with the previous political system and their children who have only been exposed to a new democratic system. Through the extension of the Dermody and Hanmer-Lloyd model of electoral behaviour, this study identifies the antecedents of trust/distrust in a transitional democracy and shows how these are different when citizens’ consider the political system and the political candidate. The work can benefit policy makers and political candidates who can develop political marketing strategies to engage citizens in the electoral process.     

Foreign Direct Investment in China: An Examination of the Literature

Since 1978, when China announced its ‘open-door’ policy to pursue the country's long-term national goal, the Four Modernisations, more than 220,000 foreign funded ventures have been approved. By the end of 1994 some US$300 billion of contracted investment had been agreed and US$95 billion of utilized investment, making the country the most important recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the developing world. This paper analyses the phenomenon of FDI in China. It examines the different forms and composition of FDI, reviewing its development since the early days of the ‘open-door’ policy and analysing its importance for Chinese domestic and export industries, as well as Western investor companies. Furthermore, the paper focuses on the world-wide sources of FDI in China and its distribution by both region and industry. Additionally, it reviews the existing research on FDI in China, emphasizing the investment mode of equity joint venture.     

Geographies of wealth: real estate and personal property ownership in England and Wales, 1870–1902

This article explores the composition and geographies of individual wealth holding in England and Wales in the late nineteenth century. It draws on various forms of death duty records to determine the individual ownership of wealth including both personal property and real estate. By combining information on these different kinds of property, it is possible to explore how different strata of wealth holders accumulated specific forms of wealth at the time of their death. The article then examines how the composition of that wealth varied according to the wealth holder's location in the urban hierarchy and distance from London. It points out important geographical differences in both the scale and nature of wealth holding and raises questions about the implications of these findings.     

Archaeological sites,modern communities,and tourism

Archaeology is a major component of the tourism industry in both developed and developing countries, which has especially significant implications for indigenous people and other disenfranchised groups. Archaeological tourism celebrates the cultural richness of a region’s history and has the potential to bring local or descendant communities financial gain. But what is the role of the archaeologist in the sustainable and responsible development and maintenance of archaeological tourism? Drawing upon their own field research, the authors suggest that when tourism and archaeological sites meet, archaeologists avoid arguments about ownership and act as facilitators for frank conversations about the consequences of tourism development for all parties involved.     

Organic,incremental and induced paths to sustainable mass tourism convergence

This paper positions sustainable mass tourism (SMT) as the desired and impending outcome for most destinations. Natural resource scarcity, development of green technology, climate change awareness, the global financial crisis, institutionalised environmentalism and Internet technology all facilitate the emergence of sustainability as a societal norm that is combining with the longer established norm of growth desirability. SMT convergence is occurring along three distinctive paths in an evolutionary manner that reflects environmental pragmatism. The market-driven ‘organic’ path describes the conventional tourism area life cycle model of Butler, whilst the regulation-driven ‘incremental’ path entails deliberate alternative tourism (DAT) in which carrying capacities are gradually increased to accommodate higher visitation levels. The hybrid ‘induced’ path describes planned mega-resorts conceived as growth poles. Each model is invested with its own specific planning and management implications.     

Release the constraints: Solving the problems of export financing in troublesome times

Export growth is seen by governments as being a key to economic recovery. In the United States, the Obama Administration pledged to double exports by the year 2015. To gain greater insights into exporting as an engine for growth, we look to export lenders to understand the contextual changes in export lending, as well as priorities in evaluating exporters. Findings from a study of export lenders on the lender referral list of the Export-Import Bank of the United States suggest that changes in the financial industry's structure over the last two decades, coupled with the economic recession, have motivated policy—at both the lending firm and governmental level—that hampers the ability of exporting to contribute to economic recovery. Further, the findings suggest that current lender policy encourages a focus on short-term returns rather than an exporter's long-term strategic position in the market. Lender preferences, in addition to governmental policies increasing regulation of the financial sector, place significant constraints on economic recovery. Thus, we call for key lender and governmental policy changes that could release industry constraints and unleash the export engine for economic recovery.