Comparison of Methods for Evaluation of the Convolution of Two Compound R 1 Distributions

In the present paper we compare four methods for evaluating the convolution of two compound R 1 distributions by counting the numbers of elementary algebraic operations required. Two of the methods are applicable in general, whereas the remaining two are restricted to the case when the two compound distributions have the same severity distribution. This case is discussed separately. We consider in particular the special case when this common severity distribution is concentrated in one, that is, evaluation of the convolution of two R 1 distributions.     

The density of the time to ruin for a Sparre Andersen process with Erlang arrivals and exponential claims

We derive expressions for the density of the time to ruin given that ruin occurs in a Sparre Andersen model in which individual claim amounts are exponentially distributed and inter-arrival times are distributed as Erlang(n,?β). We provide numerical illustrations of finite time ruin probabilities, as well as illustrating features of the density functions.     

On composite lognormal-Pareto models

Recently, Cooray & Ananda (2005) proposed a composite lognormal-Pareto model for use with loss payments data of the sort arising in the actuarial and insurance industries. Their model is based on a lognormal density up to an unknown threshold value and a two-parameter Pareto density thereafter. Here we identify and discuss limitations of this composite lognormal-Pareto model which are likely to severely curtail its potential for practical application to real world data sets. In addition, we present two different composite models based on lognormal and Pareto models in order to address these concerns. The performance of all three composite models is discussed and compared in the context of an example based upon a well-known fire insurance data set.     

Financial Ratio Covenants in UK Bank Loan Contracts and Accounting Policy Choice

The attitudes of lending bankers to the use of restrictive ratio covenants in loan contracts are of importance to both corporate management and accounting policy makers. Such attitudes also underly research linking costly contracting with accounting policy choices. This paper reports a survey of 33 UK lending bankers. It analyses their views on (a) the extent of ratio covenants in UK bank loan contracts and factors with which their presence is most likely to be associated; (b) costs that may be imposed on borrowers violating such covenants or expecting to do so; and (c) the ability of borrowers to avoid such costs by appropriate choice of accounting methods. Respondents indicated that ratio covenants are widely used, particularly for loans in excess of £1 million and with companies that are relatively highly geared. ‘High cost’ penalties such as loan acceleration are most likely to be adopted where no prior warning has been given of a covenant breach. Where prior warning has been given, or where a breach is due to an acquisition, waivers and contract renegotiation are more likely responses. Breaches caused by new SSAPs cause few real costs to borrowers, while just under 60% of respondents indicate they may take no action in response to a voluntary accounting method change.     

The Audit Report under Going Concern Uncertainties: An Empirical Analysis

This study explores the value of the audit report in the context of the going concern qualification (GCQ) decision along the joint dimensions of auditor competence and independence. Likelihood of company failure, auditor switch rates, the self-fulfilling prophecy argument and audit firm size are analysed as variables potentially affecting the value of the audit report in a GCQ situation. This study focuses on the outcomes of such decisions: the presence or absence of a GCQ, for a large sample of UK quoted companies over the decade 1977–86. Our results suggest that, unless the likelihood of failure is very high, the probability of a GCQ is very low. We find some evidence in support of an association between the presence of a GCQ and auditor switching but no support for the self-fulfilling prophecy argument. In addition, smaller UK audit firms do not appear to exhibit lower GCQ rates than do large firms. There is some evidence that the issues of auditor competence and independence may be a cause for concern in this context in the UK.     

The Incidence of Accounting-based Covenants in UK Public Debt Contracts: An Empirical Analysis

Accounting-based covenants are of particular interest to accounting researchers in view of their potential to influence management's accounting policy choices and their attitudes to new accounting standards. This exploratory paper provides evidence on the incidence of accounting-based covenants in 108 UK public debt contracts for the period 1987-1990. Thirty percent of the agreements contain such covenants, the majority of which are affirmative gearing covenants. Focusing on the institutional differences between the UK and the US, the paper examines relationships between the presence of accounting-based covenants and (a) characteristics of the issuing firm, and (b) other control mechanisms included in the debt agreement. UK firms raising public debt are of good credit quality and UK insolvency procedures afford unambiguous protection to secured creditors. As a result, accounting-based covenants are associated with long-term unsecured debt and with firms having high values for assets-in-place but, in contrast with US findings, are unrelated to gearing. Convertibility appears to reduce the need for accounting-based covenants, especially when the debt is also subordinated. The relationship between accounting- based covenants and security depends on the nature of the security (fixed or floating). Longer term non-convertible debt agreements are, therefore, particularly likely to contain covenants that could influence management's accounting behaviour. This paper provides a starting point for further research into these issues.     

A benchmark for the adequacy of published financial statements

This paper considers the problem of establishing a criterion against which auditors and others can judge the adequacy of financial reporting. Three types of criteria are considered: a general over-riding requirement (type A), an integrated coherent framework (type B), and detailed regulation (type C). Approaches, trends and arguments are presented from a number of contexts, such as UK, US and Europe. Where more than one type of criterion is present (all three exist in the UK for example) one must be superior to the others. There can only be one deciding benchmark of adequacy. It is argued that type B is inadequate as such a benchmark, as all attempted ‘conceptual’ frameworks are internally inconsistent. Types A and C are both theoretically possible, but it is argued that only Type A is consistent, as the ultimate benchmark of adequacy, with the provision of useful information in a dynamic economic world. The current IASC thinking as demonstrated in IAS1 (revised) (IASC 1977a) is discussed, and contrasted with the fundamentally different proposals in the earlier exposure draft E53 (IASC 1996). The arguments of the paper throw considerable light on this debate, and are consistent with the final content of IAS1 (revised).     

Conservatism in residual income models: theory and supporting evidence

In this paper, we develop a framework for evaluating the impact of conservative accounting on the structure of residual income models of equity valuation. We explore specific examples of both unconditional and conditional conservatism and observe a common mathematical structure. We proceed to generalise our model and identify the joint dependency of conservatism and the persistence of abnormal earnings on the weights attached to book values, earnings and dividends. We are able to show theoretically the likely numerical impact of conservatism on price-earnings ratios and under-valuations produced by residual income models. We investigate empirically the interaction between conservatism and persistence and find they accord well with the theory developed. We briefly discuss the implications of testing the effect of conservatism on valuation and linear information dynamics.     

An analysis of trading strategies in eleven European stock markets

Abstract

In recent years, the validity of the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been called into question as several studies have uncovered evidence that technical trading rules have predictive ability with respect to both developed and emerging stock market indices. This study analyses the forecasting power of 2 of the most popular trading rules using index data for a selection of 11 European stock markets over the January 1991 to December 2000 period. The findings indicate that the emerging markets included in this paper are informationally inefficient; these markets displayed some degree of predictability in their share returns, although the developed markets did not. Furthermore, the results point to large differences in the performance of the rules examined; while small size filters consistently outperformed the buy-and-hold strategy in the emerging markets examined even after the consideration of transaction costs, the performance of the moving average rules was erratic and varied dramatically from market to market.     

Identifying reference companies using the book-to-market ratio: a minimum spanning tree approach

There is substantial evidence to suggest that the book-to-market (BM) ratio is an important factor in explaining stock market returns. Its role has proved difficult to isolate, however, due to statistical problems in its construction and to its observational equivalence to a number of risk and behavioural explanations. In addition, now widely recognised complex behaviour in financial markets has called into question modelling approaches that are limited in their ability to uncover relationships that are possibly masked during financial crises, for example. As one response, our research explores the value of a newly applied technique which examines the topological properties of minimum spanning trees as applied to both the BM ratio and market returns. Our intention is to identify and report investment signals as determined by the BM ratio and to assess the relationships of these signals to returns outcomes. The approach enables highly nonlinear behaviour to be addressed and the relationships we set out to capture to be reported in novel ways. We motivate and evidence a previously unreported role for BM as an investment signal which is effective over varying stock market conditions, including the financial crisis that began in 2008.