Application of logistic analysis to the history of physics

Recently, two analyses have tried to put technological progress in a larger context. One interpretation hypothesizes that technological progress is likely to continue at increasingly higher rates of change. Another interpretation, which includes data from the beginning of the universe to the present, suggests that the universe is approaching a transition point in a logistic development of complexity. This logistic development is similar to the way ideas or products diffuse in a population, i.e., the rate of discovery in a field of knowledge is proportional to the amount discovered and the amount to be discovered. To test a part of this hypothesis, a leading indicator field (fundamental physics) was identified and the events in the history of this field were analyzed. Twelve subfields were identified and grouped into six stages. Each stage seemed to demonstrate a logistic-like development. By analyzing both the median time of development and the characteristic time of development of these stages, the overall development of this one field was found to suggest logistic development. These data seem to indicate that development in fundamental physics is slowing down, with at least one subfield beyond string physics yet to be developed. The data tend to support the hypothesis that a knowledge field can develop logistically.     

Publishing performance of Spanish academics: 1970—2004

This work complements some of the results appearing in the article “Publishing Performance in Economics: Spanish Rankings” by Dolado et al. (Span Econ Rev 5: 80–103, 2003) Specifically we focus on the robustness of the results regardless of the time span considered, the effect of the choice of a particular database on the final results, and the effects on changes in the unit of institutional measure (departments vs. institutions as a whole). Differences are significant when we expand the time period considered. There are also significant but small differences if we combine datasets to derive the rankings. Finally, department rankings offer a more precise picture of the situation of the Spanish academics, although results do not differ substantially from those obtained when overall institutions are considered.     

Choosing Among Regulatory Options in the United States Telecommunications Industry

We examine the determinants of the choice between rate-of-return regulation and incentive regulation in the United States telecommunications industry. We find that a state is more likely to select incentive regulation in any year: (1) when it has employed incentive regulation in the past; (2) when the Republican party controls both the executive and the legislative branches of the state government, but the Democratic party has controlled these branches historically; and (3) as the firms earnings under rate-of-return regulation increase toward the industry average. We also find that appointed regulators are more likely than their elected counterparts to revert to rate-of-return regulation.     

Nature's technology

We are faced with a deteriorating land system across the vast low-rainfall areas of the world. This is creating serious social and environmental disruption. The Sahelian zone is a case in point. The loss of both indigenous animals and now the land resource itself is little short of catastrophic.There is, however, a system in these parts of the world that has evolved and stabilized over the millennia. This is the natural system of grassland and “wild” animals living in harmony and forming a healthy and rich ecosystem. Man has substituted domestic animals for this indigenous fauna and is now facing the disruption of the entire system as a result.This paper looks at our “modern” ranching systems and compares them with the natural entity. The implementation of the new land use is now underway, using locally adapted grazing animals within their environment. Insights that have come from this work have led to the development of a new philosophy and thinking about our land-use systems in general.In a world faced with the horrifying specter of food shortages, loss of land resources, and energy crises, “nature's technology” points the way to a new future. If we react fast enough to save our planet and ourselves, the natural systems will be reinstated and become the land use of the future, particularly through the drier lands of the world, which today are in such peril.