The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit

This paper analyses the effect of capital inflow surges on the evolution of domestic credit. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that in the two years following the beginning of a capital inflow surge the credit-to-GDP ratio increases by about 2 percentage points. The effect is reversed in the medium-term with the credit-to-GDP ratio decreased by almost 4 percentage points seven years after the initial surge. The paper also finds that the effect is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode (debt vs. portfolio equity vs. FDI), with large capital inflows that are debt-driven having the largest effect. The results of the paper also suggest that the short-term effect of capital inflow surges on domestic credit depends on countries’ macroeconomic policy stances. In particular, it is found that this effect is lower in countries with higher real exchange rate flexibility and fiscal policy counter-cyclicality.     

Financial Integration and Fiscal Policy

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial integration on fiscal policy. Using an unbalanced panel of 31 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009, the paper shows that financial integration has significant disciplinary effects by reducing fiscal deficits and (discretionary) spending volatility. In addition, we find that financial integration affects the composition of government debt and enhances risk-sharing by increasing the share of foreign debt to the total. The results are robust to both de jure and de facto measures of financial integration, different measures of budget balance, and different estimation strategies.     

The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries*

The aim of this paper is to assess the short‐term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1 per cent in social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage points, which, given the share of social spending in GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to that of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending on health and on unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption, while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

Exploring additional determinants of fixed broadband adoption: policy implications for narrowing the broadband demand gap

Using data from the survey ‘Aspects of daily life’ conducted on Italian individuals in 2014 by the Italian Institute of Statistics, we propose new evidence on the factors that encourage the adoption of fixed broadband, a topic relevant for the reduction of the so-called broadband demand gap. We estimate a probit model through the two-step Heckman procedure for the selection bias, and find that, besides the already studied socio-demographic determinants, Internet-capable devices other than personal computers, as well as recreational (essentially video contents) and cloud-related uses of the Internet, have a relevant positive role. Policies aimed at fostering the diffusion of smart homes and more generally of the Internet of things at the residential level might be very effective in favouring fixed broadband adoption, provided that the network be neutral, not discriminating between data based on their contents and/or the destination device, and that possible foreclosing behaviours in the access to (premium) contents be properly and promptly addressed.     

Are EU Leading Firms Returning to Core Business? Evidence on Refocusing and Relatedness in a Period of Market Integration

This paper tests, for 108 diversified EU manufacturing leaders faced by the EU integration shock (1987–1997), if firms responded to increased competitive pressure by readjusting their industry-mix around a core of related activities. Our results show that, in spite of limited reduction in diversification, firms pursued strategies of related constrained diversification by expanding the output of industries related to the core. We also find that complementarity amongst the firm’s operations – i.e., sharing common intermediary products or common output markets – drives the refocusing. The effect is stronger for highly diversified firms. Our findings suggest that EU leaders are moving toward a more efficient use of their resources.     

Restructuring Public Transit Systems: Evidence on Cost Properties from Medium and Large-Sized Companies

This paper analyses the cost structure of a sample of local public transport companies operating in medium and large urban centres in Italy in order to identify the proper network configuration for the service. Technological characteristics of public transit systems are analysed by estimating both variable and total cost function models. The evidence shows the presence of short-run and long-run economies of scale, as well as of economies of network density. This suggests that a suitable network design should at least include a large urban centre, while a regulatory policy aimed at fragmenting the served area would imply an efficiency loss.      

Robust games: theory and application to a Cournot duopoly model

In this paper, the robust game model proposed by Aghassi and Bertsimas (Math Program Ser B 107:231–273, 2006) for matrix games is extended to games with a broader class of payoff functions. This is a distribution-free model of incomplete information for finite games where players adopt a robust-optimization approach to contend with payoff uncertainty. They are called robust players and seek the maximum guaranteed payoff given the strategy of the others. Consistently with this decision criterion, a set of strategies is an equilibrium, robust-optimization equilibrium, if each player’s strategy is a best response to the other player’s strategies, under the worst-case scenarios. The aim of the paper is twofold. In the first part, we provide robust-optimization equilibrium’s existence result for a quite general class of games and we prove that it exists a suitable value \(\epsilon \) such that robust-optimization equilibria are a subset of \(\epsilon \)-Nash equilibria of the nominal version, i.e., without uncertainty, of the robust game. This provides a theoretical motivation for the robust approach, as it provides new insight and a rational agent motivation for \(\epsilon \)-Nash equilibrium. In the last part, we propose an application of the theory to a classical Cournot duopoly model which shows significant differences between the robust game and its nominal version.     

Designing a public procurement strategy: lessons from local governments

Public sector procurement faces competing priorities, such as cost-efficiency, legal conformity, the advancement of environmental protection and the promotion of innovation. In addition, procurement departments are moving away from being mere organizational servants to having a strategic function. This paper looks at current public procurement strategy research, revealing neglected aspects. The authors propose a new analytical framework and suggest avenues for future research.     

Growth and inequality in an endogenous fiscal policy model with taxes on labor and capital

I study an economy where individuals have different initial endowments and fiscal policy is decided by majority voting. Public investment is financed by two flat rate taxes, one on labor income and the other one on capital income. The model shows a positive (negative) correlation between growth and the tax rate on labor (capital) income and a negative (positive) correlation between the tax rate on labor (capital) income and inequality. The results reconcile the theory with empirical evidence.     

An evolutionary perspective on health innovation systems

This paper elaborates on the general properties of medical innovation processes. It begins with a critical review of different perspectives and methods of investigation used in various streams of research that have previously analysed technical change in the health sector. After profiling and discussing their characteristics, the paper proposes an evolutionary approach to change in medicine constructed around the notion of a ‘Health Innovation System’. Health innovation, it is argued, consists of complex bundles of new medical technologies and clinical services emerging from a highly distributed competence base. Health Innovation Systems are driven by the combination of (1) institutionally-bound interactions among agents (‘gateways’ of innovation) and (2) history-dependent trajectories of change (‘pathways’ of innovation) whose developments emerge from and feed back into the structure of the system through organised transfers of knowledge between research and clinical practice. After drawing examples from recent empirical work on clinical research in specific disease areas, the paper concludes by identifying implications for further research.