The evolution of educational inequalities through secondary school: Evidence from a South African panel study

Schooling outcomes in South Africa are characterised by significant inequalities on the basis of race and socio-economic status. This paper reports on findings from a unique panel dataset that follows individuals who participated in the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study in 2002 as Grade 8 students through to their secondary school-leaving examination (known as ‘matric’) in Grade 12. The paper investigates the extent to which secondary schools differ in converting Grade 8 achievement into matric outcomes. Achievement in Grade 8 is strongly predictive of survival to matric, passing matric and performance in matric. Many students had extremely weak mathematical proficiency in Grade 8 and yet decided to take matric mathematics, only to fail the subject. Increasing the number of matric mathematics passes is a strong policy imperative. Our analysis suggests that the way to achieve this is to improve mathematics learning at earlier stages of the school programme rather than through indiscriminate mathematics participation in matric.     

Export Bans, Environmental Protection, and Unemployment

This study investigates the case for an export ban on intermediate goods which generate environmental damage. Since export restrictions on intermediates have long been advocated as a method of stimulating domestic industries in developing countries, we consider whether the case for an export ban is strengthened or weakened by the presence of unemployment in the industrial sector. We find that, in the short run, an export restriction worsens unemployment, thus weakening the case for a ban. In the long run, however, the results are reversed. If the environmental problem is severe, unemployment has a negligible impact on the case for an export ban.     

Aspiring for,and Achieving Growth: The Moderating Role of Resources and Opportunities*

abstract In this article, we use the theory of planned behaviour to develop a model of small business managers’ growth aspirations and the level of growth achieved. We empirically test this model on a large longitudinal data set of small firms using hierarchical regression. Consistent with previous findings and others’ assumptions, we find that small business managers’ aspirations to expand their business activities are positively related to actual growth. However, the relationship between aspirations and growth appears more complex than stated. It depends on the level of education and experience of the small business manager as well as the dynamism of the environment in which the business(es) operates. Education, experience and environmental dynamism magnify the effect that one's growth aspirations have on the realization of growth.     

A Regional Analysis of Productivity Change in Canadian Agriculture, with Special Reference to Energy Prices

By using a profit specification for the agricultural sector instead of the conventional value-added production formulation, this paper explains changes to regional productivity in Canada in terms of changes in output prices, material prices, energy prices, capital deepening and technical progress. The results indicate that ignoring variable input and output price increases will generally result in an overstatement of the rate of technical progress. Most notably, in the 1973-79 period, energy price increases caused a reduction in average labor productivity, though increased capital deepening and rising output prices offset price increases for energy and other materials .
C'est en subsliluant une spécification du gain pour le secleur agricole à la formulation classique de la valeur ajoutée de la production, que cette communication explique les changements regionaux de la productivité au Canada en fonction des changements du rendement el des prix des matériaux el de ľénergie, en plus des changements du rapport capital/main-ďoeuvre el du progrès technique. Les résultals indiquent que si on ne tenait aucun compte des augmentations variables des prix ďenlrée el de sortie. ľaccélération du progrès technique serait, en général, exagéré. Pendant les années 1973 à 1979 en particulier, les augmentations des prix de ľénergie onl donné lieu à une réduction de la productivité moyenne de la main-ďoeuvre. Néanmoins, ľaugmentation du rapport capital/main-ďoeuvre el les prix croissants du rendement onl compensé les hausses des prix de ľénergie el ďaulres matériaux .     

Economic freedom and migration: A metro area-level analysis

We examine the determinants of intra-U.S. population migration at the metropolitan area level (MSA), with an emphasis on the presence of policies that are consistent with economic freedom. We are the first to produce a multivariate regression analysis of migration and economic freedom at the local level. Combining a 1993–2014 unbalanced panel of MSA-to-MSA migration data from the Internal Revenue Service with a new economic freedom index for U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that a 10% increase in economic freedom of a destination MSA, relative to the economic freedom of an origin MSA, was associated with a 27.4% increase in net migration from the origin MSA to the destination MSA. If we use mean net migration flows as a benchmark, we would expect a 10% increase in relative economic freedom to increase net migration to the destination MSA by 22 workers per year from each other MSA.     

Multifactor productivity growth and the Australian mining sector

A commonly used, but unadjusted, measure of Australian mining multifactor productivity (MFP) fell by about one‐third over the first decade of the mining boom, coinciding with very large increases in resource prices. Using growth accounting methods and our own adjustments, based on energy use and capital‐output lags to account for depletion effects we find (i) the Australian annual average MFP growth in mining was 2.5 per cent a year between 1985–1986 and 2009–2010 compared to ?0.65 per cent for the unadjusted measure and (ii) productivity growth was positive in the 2000s, albeit at a lower rate than in the 1990s. Our adjusted MFP growth measures at a state level and subsector level are greater than unadjusted productivity measures. In a complementary study using an econometric decomposition of mining MFP at a state level, we find no statistically significant effect of technological change on MFP growth in the sector, but positive and statistically significant effects of technical efficiency and scale over the period 1990–1991 to 2009–2010. Our results do not support specific policy interventions to increase productivity growth in the mining sector beyond appropriate incentives for resource exploration including the provision of precompetitive resource data.     

Five challenges for China in the 1990s

There are many economic challenges facing China in its transformation to a market economy. Professor Dean discusses five of the most important of these challenges and the opportunities which they present. This article is a revised version of an address to the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Beijing.     

Present barriers to technology transfer: U.S. to Eastern Europe versus U.S. to Mexico

Technological innovations offer much promise for widespread technology transfer on a global basis. Yet, without taking social, economic, or political considerations into account, companies cannot transfer technology as effectively. Of particular importance is understanding technology transfer vis-à-vis emerging markets such as Mexico and Eastern Europe.     

Welfare reform: A game theoretic perspective

Traditionally, the debate over welfare reform has been infused with passion and driven by ideology, but reform itself has proceeded in careful steps. In recent years, however, the status quo has been dramatically altered as the need for fundamental change has become apparent as the starting point for reform. Using the state of Wisconsin’s aggressive approach to welfare reform as a model of what is administratively possible, we portray reform as an n-person iterated coordination game in order to examine potential outcomes under the larger rubric of ratinal decision-making and utility maximization. In so doing, we demonstrate that game theory offers an alternative framework for dissecting and discussing complex social issues such as welfare reform.