A copula-VAR-X approach for industrial production modelling and forecasting

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decade and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of copulae to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core European Monetary Union (EMU) countries and we provide evidence that the copula-Vector Autoregression (VAR) model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach.     

Accounting academic elites: The tale of ARIA

“Golden age” accounting theorists Robert Sterling, George Staubus, Yuji Ijiri and Arthur Thomas joined together to create an elite organisation, the Accounting Researchers International Association (ARIA) in 1974, with its chief instigator Robert “Bob” Sterling serving as its first President. Written correspondence between the early members, in conjunction with oral testimony, suggest that ARIA’s formation was motivated by a desire to protect and advance normative-based research. The early members also shared a mutual zeal for intellectual progress and a common passion to rid accounting practices of its defects. They shared a conviction that bringing together a well-recognised, dedicated group of scholars would create an environment in which individual differences would wilt under the pressure of scholarship.     

The Characteristics of Takeover Target Firms: The Case of the English Brewing Industry, 1945–1960

The paper examines if takeovers target the “correct” firms. Using the English brewing industry (1945–1960) as a case study, size and conventional performance criteria of taken-over, independent and merging firms are assessed, and shown not to be valid target indicators. Comparison of a real estate/property utilization parameter – average asset value per “tied house” – for each firm category, shows that taken-over firms have the lowest average asset value per tied house. Low average asset value per house characterizes firms which, by failing to optimize their property assets, are poor performers. Takeover therefore, in this case, targets the “correct” firms.     

Economic freedom at metropolitan statistical area borders

This paper applies a variation on differences-in-differences to the effects of economic freedom in matched bordering metropolitan statistical areas using the Metropolitan Economic Freedom Index. While a great deal of research has explored the relationship between economic freedom and economic performance, less has been done at the local level. We find that economic freedom has a positive effect on several measures of economic performance, but no effect on population.     

Spot asset carry cost rates and futures hedge ratios

Since the 1970s, futures hedge ratios have traditionally been calculated ex-post via economically structure-less statistical analyses. This paper proposes an ex-ante, more efficient, computationally simpler, general “carry cost rate” hedge ratio. The proposed hedge ratio is biased, but its bias is readily mitigatable via a stationary Bias Adjustment Multiplier (BAM). The 2-part intuition for the BAM and its stationarity is as follows. First, the paper reasons that the “traditional” hedge ratio should uncover the carry cost rate and shows that it does, albeit inefficiently. Then, since both the “traditional” and “carry cost rate” hedge ratios are driven by the carry cost rate, it may be that their ratio (for implementation in the same prior periods) is stationary and useful as an ex-ante BAM for the “carry cost rate” hedge ratio; the paper tests these conjectures and finds support for both. Specifically, the paper shows that the “bias-adjusted carry cost rate” hedge ratio, defined as the average product of the ex-post BAMs from prior periods and the current ex-ante “carry cost rate” hedge ratio, has higher hedge-effectiveness than that for either the “traditional” or “naive” benchmark hedge ratios in diverse real and simulated markets.

     

Parasitic universes: Organisational and technological meddling in the social

Debates about technology theorising ‘the social’ solely on dyadic and fixed positional terms fail to grasp important ways that new financial technologies participate in work organisations. As an alternative, we build on the work of Michel Serres to propose that these technologies already inhabit triadic and relational parasitic universes in which they introduce interruptions that do much more than mediate between degrees of technological and social determinism. To understand the forms of agency this affords, we analyse two contrasting studies of workplaces where financial technologies were introduced. In a UK non-profit social care organisation, relations of care were fundamentally disrupted by disorderly, dysfunctional forms of agency, whereas in UK retail banking, management used disorder to strategically obscure their own agency. Technological innovation and ‘future of work’ narratives are shown to feed each other, in service to interests that benefit from the repurposing of technologies, people and organisations.