OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

Death is not an option, how you die is--reflections from a career in oncology nursing

With a combined career of over 60 years in oncology nursing, the authors reflect on the critical elements in the question, "How can we afford to die?" Three high-profile patient scenarios in three different decades promised to improve use of advance directives but did not. Recent societal events, including the debates about health care reform, have brought attention again to end-of-life issues and care. Quickly approaching a "perfect storm" of an aging population, an inefficient and costly illness-oriented health care system, and health care profession shortages, the United States will not be able to afford delivering futile interventions. Nurses, who are consistently seen as the most trusted professionals, must take action in strategies the authors present.     

Is an Auditor's Propensity to Issue Going Concern Opinions a Valid Measure of Audit Quality?

A number of previous studies use auditor propensity to issue a going concern opinion (GCO) as a proxy of audit quality when examining a sample of financially distressed firms. This study examines whether audit quality (measured by discretionary accruals) influences the probability of financially distressed firms receiving GCOs using a non‐specific sample of 2937 firm‐year observations from Australia over the period 2011–2015. The study first investigates the association between financially distressed firms and the issuance of GCOs. This association is then re‐tested after separating the total sample into low and high audit quality subsamples. The results indicate that financially distressed firms are more likely to receive GCOs, confirming the application of ASA 570 Going Concern. However, financially distressed firms that receive GCOs from their auditors are limited to firms that have higher‐quality audits.     

Toddlers,teenagers, and terminal heights: the importance of puberty for male adult stature,Flanders, 1800–76

Does adult stature capture conditions at birth or at some other stage in the growth cycle? Anthropometrics is lauded as a method for capturing net nutritional status over all the growing years. However, it is frequently assumed that conditions at birth were most influential. Was this true for historical populations? This article examines the heights of Flemish men born between 1800 and 1876 to tease apart which moments of growth were most sensitive to disruption and reflected in final heights. It exploits two proximate crises in 1846–9 and 1853–6 as shocks that permit age effects to be revealed. These are affirmed through a study of food prices and death rates. Both approaches suggest a shift of the critical moment away from the first few years of life and towards the adolescent growth spurt as the most influential on terminal stature. Furthermore, just as height is accumulated over the growing years, conditions influencing growth need to be understood cumulatively. Economic conditions at the time of birth were not explanatory, but their collective effects from ages 11 to 18 years were strongly influential. At these ages, both health and nutrition mattered, to varying degrees. Teenagers, rather than toddlers, should be our guides to the past.     

Ready or Not? Homosexuality,Unit Cohesion,and Military Readiness

The U.S. military argues that homosexuals are unfit for service because their presence compromises military readiness and unit cohesion. Based on this assumption, it continues to discharge homosexuals at an average rate of approximately 925 per year. On the other hand, the extant research suggests that homosexuals are no more disruptive to military life than their heterosexual counterparts. By integrating the legal and scientific literature, this paper examines the soundness of the military’s assumptions and aims to improve our understanding of the issues involved. Within this context, the efficacy of the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, Don’t Pursue” policy and whether it is in the best interest of the military and its soldiers and sailors is discussed.

Payments or Persuasion: Common Pool Resource Management with Price and Non-price Measures

We use lab experiments to study policies that address common pool resource overuse. We look at a price mechanism, specifically a Pigouvian subsidy, and four non-price interventions. The non-price policies are information alone, information with a normative message, communication alone, and normative messages with communication allowed. In all experiment sessions, no intervention occurs in the first seven and last seven rounds, allowing us to examine the effects of introducing and taking away a policy. The subsidy leads to near-efficient extraction, but surprisingly leads groups that were not over-extracting to also reduce extraction. This over-compliance decreases efficiency, although on net the subsidy is the most efficiency-enhancing intervention. Information provision, communication, normative appeals, and normative appeals combined with communication all reduce over-extraction (though by less than the subsidy) without exacerbating over-compliance; however, the effects of information alone and communication alone are small and not robust. The non-price policies cause a decline in over-extraction of from 0.549 (information) to 11.441 % (normative appeals with communication). These effects are of the same order of magnitude as the effects seen in major field studies of conservation messaging. The subsidy has the worst persistence properties (after the intervention ceases), while normative messages with communication have the best.     

利维坦之形塑:财政、国家能力与治理

财政是国家发展的重要因素,是国家保护公民、提供正义和行政管理的前提。税收是国家获取财政的主要方式,不仅维系着国家与纳税人之间的关系,还与代表制、问责制与国家能力息息相关。揆诸史实,欧洲国家的历史发展验证了财政筹集与制度变革的重要联系,对财政的需求催生了制度的变革,并产生了代议制度。税收是国家能力和国家财权的先决条件,唯有抓住国家治理的税收脉络,在税收、能力、代议制与问责制之间形成了良性的制度循环,方能实现国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化。     

How human resource practices can help plateaued managers succeed

As organizations downsize to increase their competitiveness, flatter hierarchies result in fewer promotional opportunities and more plateaued employees. The definition of career success needs to move away from “up is good,” yet plateauing is still shameful for many employees due to traditional assumptions about the causes and effects of plateauing. A study of 373 middle managers suggests how “successful plateauing” (effective job performance, satisfaction with the job and life in general) can be fostered. The article provides specific examples of how best practices and new approaches in several human resource areas can help plateaued employees succeed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.