Asymmetric effects of financial development on South-South and South-North trade: Panel data evidence from emerging markets

Using bilateral trade data in total and technology-and-skill-intensive manufactured goods for 28 developing countries that account for 82% of all developing country manufactures exports between 1978 and 2005, this paper explores the effects of financial development on the pattern of specialization in South-South and South-North trade. The empirical results using dynamic panel regressions and comprehensive sensitivity tests suggest that financial development in the South has an economically and statistically significant positive effect on the share of total and technology-and-skill-intensive manufactures exports in GDP, and total exports in South-South trade. In contrast, no such significant or robust effect of financial development is found in South-North trade. Overall, the positive effect of financial development is found to be asymmetric favoring South-South significantly more than South-North trade. In addition, financial development is found to be increasing technology-and-skill-intensive manufactured goods exports significantly more than total manufactured or merchandise goods exports.     

Capital Asset Pricing Model and Stochastic Volatility: A Case Study of India

The existing literature demonstrates that under a general equilibrium model, the performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be improved significantly by using conditional consumption and market return volatilities as factors. This article tests the validity of these factors explaining stock return differences using a less developed country (India) as a case study. While the earlier studies used panel data to test CAPM, we use portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market equity (BE/ME) ratio. We found that conditional volatility has a limited effect on firms with large capitalization but a significant impact on small-growth and small-value firms.     

Announcements and credibility under inflation targeting

We inspect how inflation target announcements are instrumental in building central bank credibility and shaping inflation expectations. Investigating the role of announcements by using a time varying credibility measure, we find that both the accuracy and the frequency of inflation announcements have a positive impact on how much attention the public pays to target announcements.     

How Does Unobserved Heterogeneity Affect Value Relevance?

Most value relevance (VR) studies consider an accounting item value relevant if the regression coefficient (RC) of that item is statistically significant. Unobservable heterogeneity leads to biased RCs, interpretation of which generates incorrect inferences. To obtain unbiased RCs, the effect of unobservable heterogeneity on RCs should be mitigated. As two dimensions of unobservable heterogeneity are at the firm level and time level, outcomes with the following unobservable heterogeneity concerns are discussed: i) no fixed‐effects (FE); ii) firm FE; iii) time FE; and iv) two‐way (firm and time) FE. By employing a sample of Turkish firms from 2005–2014, we report several findings. First, we find that regressions with firm (time) FE yield large (low) RCs vis‐à‐vis regressions with no FE, and regressions with two‐way FE generate balanced RCs compared to the others. Second, we compare RCs with i and iv, and conclude that the book value of equity becomes more value relevant while net income does not after controlling for unobservable heterogeneity. Last, we arbitrarily divide the entire period into two to reveal how unobserved endogeneity affects the comparison of RCs belonging to different periods. Our outcomes robustly reveal that unobserved endogeneity leads to erroneous RC comparisons.     

Macro explanatory factors of Turkish tourism companies’ stock returns

This study examines whether the stock prices of Turkish tourism companies respond to growth in eight macro-economic variables namely, consumer price index, imports, exchange rate, consumer confidence index, oil price, money supply, foreign tourist arrivals, and monthly stock market return. By applying the Granger causality procedure, we find that growth in the consumer confidence index and imports could Granger cause tourism companies’ stock returns among eight macro factors in Turkey during the 2005 to 2013 period. After considering the structural break that occurred in 2007, the pre-break results indicate that the consumer confidence index, exchange rate, and foreign tourist arrivals could Granger cause tourism stock returns. However, the results in the post-structural break period reveal that only growths in oil prices and imports are significant.     

Agro-Climatic Conditions and Regional Technical Inefficiencies in Agriculture

A survey of applications of the Technical Inefficiency Effects (TIE) model suggests that agro‐climatic and other environment variables are customarily omitted in the model specifications. The justification for such an omission is the assumption that these variables are beyond the control of the farmers and therefore should be treated as random variables. In this paper, we argue that in applications dealing with regional agricultural data, agro‐climatic variables should not be treated as pure random terms. Historical differences in agro‐climatic conditions are known with a reasonable degree of certainty across a larger region. Therefore, omission of such variables from the analysis may lead to inaccurate interregional technical inefficiency comparisons. In order to demonstrate the importance of agro‐climatic variables in such analyses, we estimate the TIE model for Turkey. A translog stochastic frontier production function with agro‐climatic variables such as rainfall and land quality is estimated, and it is shown not only that the agro‐climatic variables are statistically significant but also that their omission substantially affects mean output elasticities and relative technical efficiencies. Une étude sur les applications du modèle de l'effet d'inefficacité technique (EIT) laisse à supposer que les variables agro‐climatiques et les autres variables environnementales sont comme d'habitude omises dans les spécifications du modèle. Une telle omission est justifiée par l'hypothèse selon laquelle ces variables sont en dehors du contrôle des fermiers et devraient être considérées comme des variables aléatoires. Dans ce communiqué, nous affirmons que dans les applications concernant les données agricoles régionales, ces variables agro‐climatiques ne doivent pas être traitées comme de simples termes aléatoires. Les différences historiques dans les conditions agro‐climatiques sont connues avec un degré raisonnable de certitudes pour une grande région. Aussi l'omission de telles variables dans l'analyse peut‐elle donner lieu à de fausses comparaisons interrégionales d'inefficacité technique. Afin de démontrer l'importance des variables agro‐climatiques dans de telles analyses, nous considérons le modèle de l'effet d'inefficacité techniques de la Turquie. II s'agit d'une fonction de production frontalière translogue et stochastique avec des variables agro‐climatiques telles que la pluviosité, la qualité de sol et d'autres variables. Nous démontrons que les variables agro‐climatiques sont non seulement importantes statistiquement, mais que leur omission influence essentiellement les élasticités moyennes de production ainsi que les efficacités techniques relatives.     

Globalised management and local labour: the case of the white‐goods industry in Turkey

This paper is concerned with the situation where goods are produced by workers in underdeveloped countries, in this case, consumer durables, under the direction of managements which have access to modern management techniques. In particular, it considers the significance of new management methods, especially Total Quality Management, for workers employed in white‐goods manufacture in Turkey.     

Financialization and Manufacturing Firm Profitability under Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Using semi-annual data from 1993 to 2003 for all publicly traded manufacturing firms in Turkey, this paper explores the impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty and external shocks on profitability of real sector firms in the presence of multiple investment options in both real and financial sectors. The paper argues that increasing availability and accessibility of investment opportunities in the financial markets help real sector firms sustain profit margins despite market rigidities, increasing goods market competition, or higher levels of risks. The empirical results based on dynamic panel estimations show that increasing macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility have a significantly negative effect on firm profitability. In contrast, increasing the share of financial investments in total assets is found to be reducing such negative effects at a statistically and economically significant level.     

Lingering effects of central planning on trade? Evidence from current CIS trade patterns

Conclusions Both the gravity model and indexes of trade dependence show a bias in the geographical distribution of trade towards other members of CIS, in both exports and imports of most of the CIS countries, except Russia. The gravity model and the comparison made with the EU shows that this cannot be solely explained by geographical proximity or free trade agreements within the CIS. However, central planning cannot be the only reason, either. These CIS members shared a country, a common experience, a culture for more than half a century. This can also explain part of the bias in CIS trade. In sum by these two measures, some evidence is found for a bias in geographical distribution towards CIS, suggesting that complete reorientation towards Western markets did not take place.     

European Banking Union and bank risk disclosure: the effects of the Single Supervisory Mechanism

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This paper provides evidence on the impact of European Banking Union (BU) and the associated Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) on the risk...