泡沫前后的政府政策选择

在经济全球化的背景下,金融资本的国际化流动不断加强,促成了国际金融市场的联动性和互相影响程度不断加强.而金融市场的迅速发展和资产证券化程度的提高,使得金融对于经济的渗透程度和影响程度加大.伴随着经济周期的扩张和收缩,相应资产价格的泡沫的形成和破灭的过程也对经济产生巨大的影响,政府在这样的不同周期阶段的政策选择对于平滑经济和金融市场风险显得十分重要.文章作者试图探讨政府在泡沫形成期和泡沫破灭期的理性政策选择.     

房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用研究

利用2006年1月至2008年12月的相关数据，运用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法，先研究货币政策到房地产市场传导的有效性，再分析房地产市场到最终目标（实体经济）传导的有效性。结果表明：房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中发挥了重要作用，M2、M1是房价指数变化的格兰杰原因，房价指数是工业增加值、居民消费物价指数、社会消费品零售总额变化的格兰杰原因。     

会计年度研究:来自实务界的证据

本文通过问卷调查,考察了来自注册会计师及企业财务报告呈报者关于会计年度截止日的看法。我们发现,税务部门、银行等债权人对公司年报的影响要大于财政、统计部门和证券交易所的影响(在上市公司中,证券交易所的影响最大);多数财务报告呈报者并不认为公历会计年度对企业带来很大不便;而大多数的注册会计师认为,采用公历会计年度所带来的年报集中审计将对审计质量造成显著影响。     

商业银行信贷风险评估:信息经济学视角

分析了商业银行信贷风险评估中所依据的软信息和硬信息的作用范畴和关系,结论是两类信息间是互补的关系,从而商业银行在进行信贷决策中应当把信贷专家意见和现代计量模型的结果综合进行考虑.     

相互依存中的贸易摩擦——日美贸易摩擦和对中国的借鉴作用

文章从相互依存理论出发,分析相互依存与国际贸易摩擦的关系,进而从定性及定量两个角度来分析日美贸易摩擦的变化轨迹,表明了在一定时期内,国际社会相互依存与摩擦是事物的两个方面,同时并存,两者符合对立统一的辩证关系。在相互依存下产生摩擦是必然的。随着接触机会的扩大和交流量的增大,摩擦也日渐增加。在相互依存的条件下日本采取了化解日美贸易摩擦的政策措施,这对我国处理国际贸易摩擦有很好的借鉴作用。     

新农村物流金融的整合形式创新

农村物流金融是新农村物流发展的必然产物。实现农村物流与资金流的高效率融合,是新农村物流金融模式整合的重大创新。根据我国新农村建设的实际情况,认为应从大力拓展农村物流"融通仓"模式、创建"邮政储蓄银行"、"乡村银行"开展农村物流金融业务等方面的农村物流金融进行整合创新。     

生产分割、周期协同与主要贸易伙伴的关联:1995～2008年

利用中国与17个主要贸易伙伴国1995～2008年的投入产出表和分行业双边进出口贸易数据,测算不同时期的双边生产分割程度。然后基于动态面板数据模型,综合分析了影响国际经济周期协同的决定性因素。研究发现,贸易在影响中国与主要贸易伙伴国的国际经济周期协同中存在两种不同方向的作用机制:以双边生产分割程度度量的互补品贸易对经济周期协同存在正向影响,而以双边贸易强度指标度量的替代品贸易对经济周期协同存在负向影响。同时研究还表明,双边金融整合程度对国际经济周期协同有正向影响,而产业结构相似性对国际经济周期协同的影响并不显著。     

基于循环经济的安徽城市效率分析

按照循环经济的"3R"原则构建了评价城市效率的指标体系,并运用数据包络分析法(DEA)对安徽省17个地级市的城市相对效率进行了定量分析,根据评价结果结合各地实际情况分析原因,对安徽省城市的发展和宏观决策均有参考价值。     

Determining the integrated volatility via limit order books with multiple records

The integrated volatility plays an important role in risk management and portfolio selection, the estimation methods regarding the quantity have been widely investigated, either under low-frequency data or high-frequency data, or a combination of both. In this paper, we propose a measure for the integrated volatility via limit order book data with possible presence of multiple records. The estimator is valid under mild conditions and it is easily implemented. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator has been verified by simulation studies and we apply the method to some real high-frequency data-sets as well.     

Establishing statistical foundations of a chronology for the great divergence: a survey and critique of the primary sources for the construction of relative wage levels for Ming–Qing China

This article is a survey and critique of recent endeavours to establish statistical foundations for a chronology for the great divergence based upon trends and levels in relative wages. Our reading of the bibliography in Chinese labour history, together with a preliminary investigation into other primary sources, suggests that the Kuznetsian paradigm for empirical economics may not be viable for the construction of analytical narratives for the Chinese and other premodern imperial economies in South and West Asia. Nevertheless, two datasets currently in print will continue to be quoted to lend support to numerically grounded speculations for levels and trends in real wages and welfare for the families of wage‐dependent urban workers in China over the eighteenth century. Statistical evidence for the Ming and Qing dynasties calibrated for the purposes of comparing real wage levels for wage‐dependent labour between China and western Europe can, however, be placed on a spectrum for accuracy and inferential analysis that runs from ‘unfounded guess work’ to ‘plausible conjectures’. The unwelcome contention of this article is that the data published and potentially available for China (and probably for India and the Ottoman Empire) stand close to the unfounded guess work end of that spectrum. Meanwhile, and as a speculative conclusion, we offer a conjecture that the ‘real wages’ for Qing China's tiny proletariat, whose income included high proportions of wages in kind, have remained as elusive as they were when the real wage debate began a decade ago.