Modeling Methods for Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper introduces new forms, sampling and estimation approaches fordiscrete choice models. The new models include behavioral specifications oflatent class choice models, multinomial probit, hybrid logit, andnon-parametric methods. Recent contributions also include new specializedchoice based sample designs that permit greater efficiency in datacollection. Finally, the paper describes recent developments in the use ofsimulation methods for model estimation. These developments are designed toallow the applications of discrete choice models to a wider variety ofdiscrete choice problems.     

Agricultural disaster payments in the southeastern US: do weather and climate variability matter?

Governments around the world are forced to react to disasters caused by weather. The agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to weather extremes and adverse climate conditions. In the US, agricultural disaster payments account for a significant part of total agricultural subsidies. The payments, and their distribution, are more important in the areas most affected by disastrous weather events, usually coinciding with areas of pronounced impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this article, the impact of weather and climate, as well as some economic variables, on disaster payments is analysed using county level data from four states in the southeastern United States. The results suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic variables do not, suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in planning for disaster compensation.     

Consumption smoothing in Russia1

Using a panel from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1994–2004), this paper investigates to what extent Russian households have been able to maintain their living standards while suffering income shocks. Consumption smoothing is modelled by means of an equilibrium correction mechanism, which disentangles short‐run dynamics and long‐run equilibrium adjustments. GMM estimation is used to control for individual household effects in the presence of dynamics. Additionally, we differentiate between food and non‐food consumption, positive and negative shocks, rural and urban areas, and several levels of poverty risk. We find that dynamics are important in the consumption equation, and that estimates are sensitive to imputation errors in home food production. No strong claims can be made regarding heterogeneity in smoothing behaviour.     

Private Property or Several Control: A Rejoinder

Following Mises’s foundational paper, ‘Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth’, first published in 1920, writers in the Austrian tradition have argued that socialism is impossible, because under socialism there would be no private property in the means of production, and without that private property economic calculation could not take place. In the article ‘Economic Calculation: Private Property or Several Control?’, published in this journal in 2015, I argued that this was mistaken. Not private property, but several control, was required for economic calculation, and since several control is consistent with public ownership, this argument for the impossibility of socialism fails. Another article, ‘Private Property and Economic Calculation: A Reply to Andy Denis’, by Bylund and Manish, published in this issue of the Review of Political Economy, defends the traditional interpretation of Austrian reasoning, contending that my argument fails. My rejoinder re-states the issues, addressing, and, ultimately rejecting, the Bylund and Manish critique.     

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ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION OF FOUR ASIAN COUNTRIES BEFORE THE 1997 CRISIS

Abstract.  The current paper presents an empirical analysis of the current account positions during the pre Asian crisis period, in the four most crisis-hit countries (namely Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea and Indonesia). We have employed the procedures advocated by Husted for the presence of stationarity in current accounts by estimating a cointegration relationship between any country's exports and imports. The results do not substantiate the presence of cointegration between the series, implying that the macroeconomic fundamentals in these countries prior to the crisis were far from robust, at least from the perspective of current account sustainability.     

The use of Web sites as a disclosure platform for corporate performance

Adopting a stockholders' interests' perspective, we explore three related questions: (1) What are the scope and patterns of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (2) What are the determinants of the extent and scope of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (3) Is corporate performance disclosure on the Internet relevant for valuation of a firm's earnings? Corporate performance disclosure relates to corporate actions and initiatives that directly affect society and, ultimately, stockholders' wealth. We focus on Web (HTML) disclosure. Our sample comprises Canada's largest publicly-traded firms, many of which are also SEC registrants. The extent and scope of web disclosure by these firms is rated using a coding grid. Regarding the first question, three disclosure patterns emerge: (1) firms providing disclosure about innovation, development and growth also tend to report about customer value as well as maintaining a Web site with good capabilities (business-related disclosure), (2) disclosure about human/intellectual capital is linked to social responsibility disclosure (social-related disclosure) and, (3) the disclosure of financial performance and corporate governance practices are both closely linked together (financial-related disclosure). Regarding the second question, firms apparently take into account variables proxying for information costs and benefits accruing to stockholders when determining the extent of their Web disclosure. Finally, regarding the third question, a firm's web-based performance disclosure appears to affect its earnings valuation multiple, although in a differential manner according to the nature of the information being conveyed.     

On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices

Continuous-time models of natural resource prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and/or ARCH effects, we combine bounds and the Monte Carlo test technique to obtain finite-sample, level-exact p -values. We apply this methodology to stumpage prices from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. To assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber, we develop an autonomous, infinite-horizon stopping model for which we provide a new method of resolution. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.     

Towards the dual economy and emancipation from employment

We are slaves to employment and its institutions—employers, trade unions, government—no less than medieval man was to church, baron, and manor. The apparent failure of technology to liberate us from full-time jobs is due to our dependence on the institutional economy and the use of employment for social control. Universal employment is not only a dubious privilege, but one we cannot afford. Today there is a physical and psychological flight from modern employment. The growth of the informal or free economy offers a way forward. It promises greater opportunities for women, those with manual skills, and the permanent resident, although there is not much in it for the mobile executive on the make.