Estimating the effect of a retraining program on the re-employment rate of displaced workers

In this article, we estimate the effects of a French retraining program on the re-employment rate of displaced workers by matching techniques. This program, called ‘Conventions de conversion’, was intended to improve re-employment prospects of displaced workers by proposing them retraining and job seeking assistance for a period of 6 months beginning just after the dismissal. Our empirical analysis is based upon non-experimental data collected by the French Ministry of Labour. Matching estimates show that this program succeeded in increasing the employment rate of trainees by approximately 6 points of percentage in the medium-term, namely in the 2nd and 3rd years after the date of entry into the program. This improvement is essentially due to an increase of their re-employment rate in regular jobs, namely jobs under long-term labour contracts.     

A pseudo-panel data model of household electricity demand

We study the dynamic behaviour of household electricity consumption on the basis of four large independent surveys conducted in the province of Québec from 1989 to 2002. The latter region displays some rather unique features such as the very extensive use of electricity for space heating in a cold climate and the wide range of energy sources used to meet space heating requirements. We adopt Deaton (1985) approach to create 25 cohorts of households that form a pseudo-panel. The cohorts have on average 131 households. The model error terms allow for group heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. Short-run and long-run own and cross-price elasticities are statistically significant. Electricity and natural gas are estimated to be substitutes while electricity and fuel oil are complements, as it may occur in the Quebec context. The estimate of the income elasticity is not significant. Comparisons with related studies are provided.     

Individual discount rates forecast county-level unemployment change

We use a national survey to estimate individuals’ discount rates for job creation in the community and test whether impatience for jobs is associated county-level unemployment change outcomes in subsequent years. Our results suggest that impatience for jobs is a possible forecast variable for future modelling efforts. To explore whether the impatience effect is general or simply limited to attitudes about local job creation, the same survey asked about discount rates for local amenity development and personal financial windfall. We find that job growth discount rates perform best for forecasting.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS WHEN DEMOGRAPHICS ARE CORRELATED WITH INCOME

We show how to account for differentials in demographic variables, in particular mortality, when performing welfare comparisons over time. The idea is to apply various ways of "correcting" estimated income distribution measures for "sample selection" due to differential mortality. We distinguish the direct effect of mortality, i.e. individuals who die leave the population and no longer contribute to monetary welfare, from the indirect effect, i.e. the impact on survivors in the deceased's household who may experience a decrease or increase in monetary welfare. In the case of Indonesia, we show that the direct and indirect effects of mortality on income distribution have opposite signs, but are roughly the same in magnitude. Moreover, the effects of other demographic changes dominate the effects of mortality, whether direct or indirect. However, in the post-crisis period these demographic changes also explain a substantial part of the overall change in the distribution of income.     

Value relevance and timeliness of transitional goodwill-impairment losses: Evidence from Canada

Focusing on transitional goodwill-impairment losses (losses) recorded by Canadian firms following the adoption of revised standards on purchased goodwill, we investigate the value relevance and timeliness of mandatory changes in accounting principles accounted for using the retroactive method. We find a negative relationship between reported losses and share price. Such a finding is consistent with investors perceiving losses as being sufficiently reliable measurements of a reduction in the value of goodwill to incorporate them in their valuation assessments. We find also that investors put a higher valuation weight on losses reported by firms that are expected to record a loss. In addition, we show that investors perceive that there are reduced opportunities for managerial discretion when there is a more effective audit committee. Finally, our results show that returns lead losses, i.e., that losses represent a catch-up adjustment to reflect the cumulative effect of using the impairment approach for the first time. Overall, our evidence supports U.S. standard setters' decision, through SFAS 154, to favour enhanced comparability and consistency over the potential costs of frequent restatements. Our results also show that fair-value measurements can be relevant even when the financial statement elements of interest are inherently bound to measurement error and subject to significant managerial discretion. They support the notion that reliability is about faithful representation, not precision.     

TRUE UPPER BOUNDS FOR BERMUDAN PRODUCTS VIA NON-NESTED MONTE CARLO

We present a generic non-nested Monte Carlo procedure for computing true upper bounds for Bermudan products, given an approximation of the Snell envelope. The pleonastic "true" stresses that, by construction, the estimator is biased above the Snell envelope. The key idea is a regression estimator for the Doob martingale part of the approximative Snell envelope, which preserves the martingale property. The so constructed martingale can be employed for computing tight dual upper bounds without nested simulation. In general, this martingale can also be used as a control variate for simulation of conditional expectations. In this context, we develop a variance reduced version of the nested primal-dual estimator. Numerical experiments indicate the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.     

TAUX D'INTERET EFFECTIF, VIABILITE FINANCIERE ET FINANCEMENT DES PETITS OPERATEURS ECONOMIQUES PAR LES INSTITUTIONS DE MICROFINANCE AU BENIN

RÉSUMÉ ** :  Les institutions de microfinance (IMF) ont accompli le miracle de faciliter l'accès aux services financiers à des milliers d'exclus du système bancaire classique dans les pays en développement. Mais une polémique naît quant aux coûts élevés associés auxdits services. Cette étude a évalué le niveau de taux d'intérêt viable pour la microfinance en termes d'offre de services financiers. Les résultats montrent que les micro-projets dont le taux de rentabilité interne ne dépasse pas 42% ne pourraient être financés par les institutions de microfinance. Quasiment aucune IMF n'assurerait son autosuffisance opérationnelle, donc sa pérennité en respectant le seuil légal fixéà 27%.