Catastrophe theory and the financial crisis

This paper develops and estimates catastrophe‐augmented models of the financial crisis. We employ catastrophe theory to explain discontinuous jumps in state variables of dynamic systems. We estimate an augmented bank failure model showing that the buildup of risk and an increase in the Federal Funds rate combined with low reserves (negative insurance effect) have been the main drivers of the financial crisis. Therefore, macroprudential policy and rating agencies play a key role in preventing the buildup of (systemic) risk and preventing the economy from entering a bifurcation area.     

A qualitative study of high-reputation plant managers: Political skill and successful outcomes

There has been little systematic study of what plant managers actually do on a day-to-day basis that accounts for their success in achieving organizational outcomes. In our field interviews and observations of high-reputation plant managers from 11 manufacturing plants, we found that effective political skill enabled them to influence subordinates in ways that contributed positively to organizational outcomes. Political skill is an interpersonal style that combines social astuteness with the ability to relate well, and otherwise demonstrate situationally appropriate behavior in an engaging way that inspires confidence, trust, and genuiness [Ferris, G.R., Perrewé, P.L., Anthony, W.P., Gilmore, D.C., 2000. Political skill at work. Organizational Dynamics 28 (4), 25–37]. We observed that effective plant managers possessed a configuration of dispositional traits (self-motivation, sense of humility, and affability), systematically employed interpersonal behaviors (creating accountability, leading by example, and developing trust), and focused on managerial processes (stretch goals, influencing and learning from below, and empowering direct reports). By juxtaposing the political skill and power literatures, we propose a theory of plant manager effectiveness as a combination of political skill and the use of unobtrusive and systemic power to achieve both affective and substantive outcomes.     

Supply-side effects of the 150-hour educational requirement for CPA licensure

This study examines issues associated with professional licensure in the context of the recently implemented 150-hour educational requirement for CPA licensure. We base our hypotheses on prior professional licensure research in economics and accounting. The results show that the implementation of the requirement has been associated with a substantial decline in the number of candidates taking the CPA exam, a significant increase in the pass-rate on the exam and an overall decline in the number of successful candidates. We also find that a substantial number of candidates advanced the timing of their candidature to circumvent the requirement and that candidates migrate from states that implement the requirement to non-implementing states.      

Environmental justice and enforcement of the safe drinking water act: The Arizona arsenic experience

Environmental justice is concerned with the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies. A wide variety of empirical studies have concluded that disparate-impact discrimination does in fact exist since minority and low-income communities are at disproportionate risk for environmental harm. In this paper we examine these issues in the context of enforcing the safe drinking water act (SDWA). Specifically, we focus on the association between race, income, and hazardous levels of arsenic concentration and analyze the broad equity implications of implementing the new arsenic regulation by examining the relationship between community-level exposure to arsenic and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the population in Arizona. The results provide no support for the contention that continued selective implementation and enforcement of the revised SDWA arsenic standard is likely to disadvantage minority or low-income groups disproportionately in Arizona.     

Reform des ?ffentlichen Haushalts- und Rechnungswesens in Deutschland Konzepte, Umsetzungsstand und Entwicklungsperspektiven

Die Rechnungslegung ?ffentlicher Unternehmen und Gebietsk?rperschaften auf staatlicher und kommunaler Ebene unterliegt seit einigen Jahren einer intensiven Reformentwicklung. Ausgel?st wurde die Reform durch die Unzul?nglichkeiten des kameralen Rechnungssystems, das keinen überblick über die tats?chliche Verm?gens- und Schuldensituation sowie Kosten und Leistungen einer Gebietsk?rperschaft erm?glicht und somit Fehlsteuerungen und Fehlentscheidungen begünstigt. Das reformierte Haushalts- und Rechnungswesen zielt auf ein auf der Doppik basierendes neben dem Geldverbrauch den tats?chlichen Ressourcenverbrauch sowie Kosten und Leistungen erfassendes Informations- und Planungssystem. Der folgende Beitrag gibt einen überblick über die einzelnen Reformelemente, stellt den gegenw?rtigen Umsetzungsstand vor und zeigt weiteren Reformbedarf auf.     

The interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy: Overview

This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven papers from the initiative. The papers are from a range of core and smaller advanced economies, and emerging markets . The main findings are as follows. First, there is evidence that macroprudential policy in recipient countries can partly offset the spillover effects of monetary policy conducted in core countries. Meanwhile, domestic macroprudential policy in core countries can also affect the cross‐border transmission of domestic monetary policy via lending abroad, by limiting the increase in lending by less strongly capitalized banks. Second, the findings highlight that studying heterogeneities across banks provides complementary insights to studies using more aggregate data and focusing on average effects. In particular, we find that individual bank characteristics such as bank size or GSIB status play a first‐order role in the transmission of these policies. Finally, the impacts differ considerably across prudential policy instruments, which also suggests the importance of more granular analysis.     

Two-level search design for main-effect plus two plan

One important class of screening designs is the search design first proposed by Srivastava (1975). A new class of two-level factorial search designs which are capable of estimating all main-effect plus two interactions is provided. We first give a necessary and sufficient condition for the main-effect plus two plan and then show that the proposed search design always satisfies such a condition. Received October 2000     

Learning barriers: a framework for the examination of structural impediments to organizational change

The body of knowledge on organizational learning is believed to be large and fragmented. Therefore, this knowledge seems to be of limited use to practitioners. We, however, present an alternative review of the most important publications on organizational learning that deals explicitly with learning barriers. The structural causes of problems with organizational learning are related to malfunctioning components of the cybernetic learning system of the organization. Thus, it became clear that the body of knowledge on organizational learning is less fragmented and does not contain any contradictions. This resulted in our construction of a framework in which the major contributions on organizational learning are integrated. It allows practitioners to use strengths of multiple theories to analyze change management problems. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series

Macroeconomic time series such as total unemployment or total industrial production concern data which are aggregated across regions, sectors, or age categories. In this paper we examine whether forecasts for these aggregates can be improved by considering panel models for the disaggregate series. As many macroeconomic variables have nonlinear properties, we specifically focus on panels of nonlinear time series. We discuss the representation of such models, parameter estimation and a method for generating forecasts. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach for simulated data and for the US coincident index, making use of state-specific component series.