UK Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

This paper reports the results of an empirical study of UK analysts' earnings forecasts for 126 firms for the years 1980 and 1981. Six hypotheses regarding the accuracy of these forecasts are tested, with results which both confirm and conflict with prior UK findings. In addition, evidence is found of a greater than generally attributed sensitivity of test results to the measure of accuracy used.     

The Effect Of Stock Splits On Liquidity And Excess Returns: Evidence From Shareholder Ownership Composition

We examine the influence of firm ownership composition on both the abnormal returns at the announcement of a stock split and liquidity changes following a stock split. We find three results. First, the largest post‐split increase in institutional ownership occurs for firms that had low institutional ownership before the split. Second, changes in liquidity are negatively related to the level of institutional ownership before the split. Last, the abnormal return following a split is negatively related to the level of institutional ownership before the split. These findings are important as they shed new light on the source of stock split announcement returns.     

The stylized facts about the behavior of manufacturers' inventories and backorders over the business cycle: 1959–1980

Recent theoretical work has highlighted the role of inventories in propagating business cycles. This paper attempts to provide an empirical foundation for current and future research on the role inventories play in business cycles. The evidence presented here indicates that inventories and backorders are major variables in predicting output fluctuations. Further, the evidence is that disaggregating inventories by stage-of-fabrication is important in predicting output. In concert with previous findings, our results suggest that disaggregated inventories ought to be a component of models of the business cycle.     

Creative Strategies in Highly Creative Domestic and International Television Advertising

The author gives an ITV Company view of the research environment of the eighties.     

Terms of trade risk with partial labor mobility

We examine the welfare consequences of terms-of-trade risk in a small open economy in which it is costly for workers to move between sectors. Relocation costs lead to partial labor mobility, sectoral wage gaps and income risk exceeding that of an economy in which relocation is costless. Using observed wage differentials and standard values for volatility and preferences, we find that the welfare cost of partial labor mobility alone is unlikely to be very large, even in the absence of self-insurance arrangements. In addition, modest consumption substitution elasticities significantly reduce these welfare costs.