HOW REVOLUTIONARY IS THE “NERICA REVOLUTION”? EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

A new high‐yielding upland rice variety known as New Rice for Africa (NERICA) has been widely recognized as a promising technology for addressing the food shortage in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there has been no on‐farm yield data to support this optimism. The present study attempts to assess the actual and potential yield of NERICA in Uganda where it has been introduced recently. We found that NERICA's yield is higher (2.5 tons) for farmers who had rice‐growing experience than those who had no previous experience (1.7 tons). These findings strongly indicate that strengthening training, extension, and other supporting systems is the key to the success of the “NERICA revolution” in this country.     

The impact of membership fees on consumer attitude and choice

This study examined the impact of membership fees on consumer attitude and purchase behavior. Subjects participated in a computerized simulated shopping experiment, and chose between three competing videotape rental stores, receiving feedback about purchase utility on each occasion. Manipulations included the presence or absence of an initial membership-fee requirement at the dominant store and the timing of a lowering of that store's utility to the same level as that offered by a competing establishment. Store loyalty is shown to vary as a function of membership fees and utility changes in a manner consistent with hypotheses generated from prospect, escalation-of-commitment, cognitive-dissonance, and self-perception theories. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Understanding peak avoidance commuting by subway: an empirical study in Beijing

Congestion is a major problem for peak-hour commuters in the Beijing subway system, as it leads to long queuing times and overcrowded vehicles. This paper explores to what extent peak travel can be reduced by providing incentives for peak avoidance. In a stated preference study, travellers’ responses to two financial and two non-financial incentives were measured, and factors increasing or limiting the response were identified. Our results suggest that all four incentives can be reasonably effective tools and the financial incentives seem to have a slightly stronger effect than the services and credit-for-gifts-based scenarios. Ordered logit models indicate that various factors influence people’s receptiveness of incentives for peak avoidance which relate to the ease of change or presence of alternatives and receptiveness to incentives. Both theoretical and policy implications are concluded that the proposed factors and incentive system can help solving the subway congestion in Beijing.     

Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long‐term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.     

Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination

In this paper, we examine the forecast accuracy of linear autoregressive, smooth transition autoregressive (STAR), and neural network (NN) time series models for 47 monthly macroeconomic variables of the G7 economies. Unlike previous studies that typically consider multiple but fixed model specifications, we use a single but dynamic specification for each model class. The point forecast results indicate that the STAR model generally outperforms linear autoregressive models. It also improves upon several fixed STAR models, demonstrating that careful specification of nonlinear time series models is of crucial importance. The results for neural network models are mixed in the sense that at long forecast horizons, an NN model obtained using Bayesian regularization produces more accurate forecasts than a corresponding model specified using the specific-to-general approach. Reasons for this outcome are discussed.     

Asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on S&P100 stock returns,volatilities and correlations

We study the effects of FOMC announcements of federal funds target rate decisions on individual stock returns, volatilities and correlations at the intraday level. For all three characteristics we find that the stock market responds differently to positive and negative target rate surprises. First, the average response to positive surprises (that is, bad news for stocks) is larger. Second, in case of bad news the mere occurrence of a surprise matters most, whereas for good news its magnitude is more important. These new insights are possible due to the use of high-frequency intraday data.     

Assessing the impact of NERICA on income and poverty in central and western Uganda

Persistent food shortage and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are major development issues. New Rice for Africa (NERICA) was developed to boost crop yield and income of rural households in SSA. Although its high-yielding traits have become fairly well known, there is no empirical analysis of its impact on income and poverty. By taking the case of Uganda where a NERICA promoting program was initiated as one of the major poverty eradication measures, this study attempts to compare actual income with the hypothetical income without NERICA. We found that introduction of NERICA decreases poverty to a significant extent without deteriorating income distribution.     

Globalisation and Policy Effects in Africa

Globalisation or market integration in Sub‐Saharan Africa is closely linked to the structural adjustment programmes. In this paper we focus on their dependence on the politics and institutional characteristics of the countries concerned. In particular, we argue that one important explanation for the dismal performance of many African countries, in spite of all the measures taken towards market liberalisation, is the combination of, first, a magnification of the effects of policy and, second, a lack of willingness or ability on the part of politicians to respect the restrictions imposed on their behaviour and policy choices by the liberalised markets. We look at how the increased exposure to international prices and returns on assets make the economic equilibrium relations – the law of one price and uncovered interest parity – relevant guidelines for economic policy. The argument is illustrated by the case of Zimbabwe, where lack of respect for the restrictions imposed by international markets has led to an economic crisis with negative growth rates and a departure from globalisation.