HOW REVOLUTIONARY IS THE “NERICA REVOLUTION”? EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

A new high‐yielding upland rice variety known as New Rice for Africa (NERICA) has been widely recognized as a promising technology for addressing the food shortage in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there has been no on‐farm yield data to support this optimism. The present study attempts to assess the actual and potential yield of NERICA in Uganda where it has been introduced recently. We found that NERICA's yield is higher (2.5 tons) for farmers who had rice‐growing experience than those who had no previous experience (1.7 tons). These findings strongly indicate that strengthening training, extension, and other supporting systems is the key to the success of the “NERICA revolution” in this country.     

The impact of membership fees on consumer attitude and choice

This study examined the impact of membership fees on consumer attitude and purchase behavior. Subjects participated in a computerized simulated shopping experiment, and chose between three competing videotape rental stores, receiving feedback about purchase utility on each occasion. Manipulations included the presence or absence of an initial membership-fee requirement at the dominant store and the timing of a lowering of that store's utility to the same level as that offered by a competing establishment. Store loyalty is shown to vary as a function of membership fees and utility changes in a manner consistent with hypotheses generated from prospect, escalation-of-commitment, cognitive-dissonance, and self-perception theories. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Understanding peak avoidance commuting by subway: an empirical study in Beijing

Congestion is a major problem for peak-hour commuters in the Beijing subway system, as it leads to long queuing times and overcrowded vehicles. This paper explores to what extent peak travel can be reduced by providing incentives for peak avoidance. In a stated preference study, travellers’ responses to two financial and two non-financial incentives were measured, and factors increasing or limiting the response were identified. Our results suggest that all four incentives can be reasonably effective tools and the financial incentives seem to have a slightly stronger effect than the services and credit-for-gifts-based scenarios. Ordered logit models indicate that various factors influence people’s receptiveness of incentives for peak avoidance which relate to the ease of change or presence of alternatives and receptiveness to incentives. Both theoretical and policy implications are concluded that the proposed factors and incentive system can help solving the subway congestion in Beijing.     

Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long‐term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.     

Identifying Changes in Mean,Seasonality, Persistence and Volatility for G7 and Euro Area Inflation*

We propose an iterative decomposition that tests and accounts for multiple structural breaks in the mean, seasonality, dynamics and conditional volatility, while also accounting for outliers. Considering each component separately within each iteration leads to greater flexibility compared with joint procedures. Monte Carlo analysis shows the procedure performs well. Applied to monthly CPI inflation in G7 countries and the Euro area, we uncover mean and seasonality breaks for all countries and, allowing for these, changes in persistence are generally also indicated. Further, volatility reductions are widespread in the early to mid 1980s, with some countries exhibiting increases from 1999 onwards.     

Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison

This paper demonstrates that the Conference Board’s Composite Leading Index (CLI) has significant real-time predictive ability for Industrial Production (IP) growth rates at horizons from one to six months ahead over the period 1989-2009. A popular but unrealistic analysis, which combines real-time data for CLI and final vintage data for IP as predictor variables, obscures the actual predictive content of the CLI, in the sense that in that case, the improvements in forecast accuracy relative to a univariate AR model are not significant. The CLI appears to be less useful for forecasting growth rates of the Conference Board’s Composite Coincident Index (CCI) in real time, as a univariate AR model performs better. This result is mostly due to its disappointing performance during the first five years of the forecast period. The CLI may not be the best way of exploiting the information contained in the underlying individual leading indicator variables. The use of principal components instead of CLI leads to more accurate real-time forecasts for both IP and CCI growth rates.     

Do I Hear the Whistle…? A First Attempt to Measure Four Forms of Employee Silence and Their Correlates

Silence in organizations refers to a state in which employees refrain from calling attention to issues at work such as illegal or immoral practices or developments that violate personal, moral, or legal standards. While Morrison and Milliken (Acad Manag Rev 25:706–725, 2000) discussed how organizational silence as a top-down organizational level phenomenon can cause employees to remain silent, a bottom-up perspective—that is, how employee motives contribute to the occurrence and maintenance of silence in organizations—has not yet been given much research attention. In this paper, we argue that this perspective is a meaningful complementation of the existing literature and that it is sensible to conceptualize distinct forms of employee silence (Pinder and Harlos, Research in personnel and human resources management. JAI Press, Greenwich, 2001; van Dyne et al., J Manag Stud 40:1359–1392, 2003). Drawing on past research and theory we conceptualize four forms of employee silence, namely quiescent, acquiescent, prosocial, and opportunistic silence. We present scales to assess the four forms and provide empirical tests for their distinctiveness and patterns of relationships to various correlates and potential antecedents and consequences.     

The determinants of Norwegian exporters’ foreign exchange risk management

Abstract

This paper examines foreign exchange (FX) hedging by Norwegian exporting firms to provide empirical evidence on the determinants of the hedging decision. The paper contributes to prior studies by, first, focusing on exporters to ensure that the companies in the sample have FX exposure, thereby allowing a more rigorous test of the theoretical determinants of hedging, and, secondly, in contrast to most previous studies that have focused on FX external hedging instruments, the use of both internal and external instruments is examined. Univariate, multivariate and multinominal analyses all provide evidence consistent with the firm value maximization hypotheses of underinvestment and risk aversion. Also, the following characteristics of firms—size, extent of internationalization and liquidity—are found to be related to the decision to hedge FX risk. However, the evidence on the links between the firm characteristics and the decision to hedge is not consistent across internal and external FX hedgers, and also varies for individual hedging instruments. Therefore it is argued that the empirical evidence on the theoretical determinants cannot be generalized to cover the full range of FX hedging strategies (which includes internal hedging instruments). Unlike empirical studies for other countries the evidence for Norwegian firms does not support the hypothesis that the avoidance of financial distress and the need to resort to external capital markets is a significant determinant of the hedging decision. Whilst the evidence suggests that country-specific factors may play a role in determining the use of FX hedging, it does not imply that the different policies adopted are necessarily inconsistent with the firm value maximization hypothesis.     

Similarity-Based Spatial Methods to Estimate Shelf Space Elasticities

A retailer may allocate shelf space to brands based on factors, unobservable to researchers, which also determine sales. As a consequence, both sales and shelf space are endogenous in historical data, and this leads to inconsistent estimates of shelf space elasticities based on OLS. To obtain valid estimates of shelf space elasticities for allocation decisions, we propose an approach that incorporates the spatial correlation between shelf space and the error term resulting from store-, consumer- and competitor characteristics. The empirical results suggest that our model based on a single cross section of stores corrects for endogeneity and provides valid shelf space elasticities. We also obtain superior predictions compared to several benchmark models. With the same cross section and two observations over time, the alternative methods we use provide comparable shelf space elasticity estimates. However, our proposed method is still superior in the sense that its estimates have somewhat smaller standard errors.