The Impact of Macroeconomic and Financial Variables on Market Risk: Evidence from International Equity Returns

Using a GARCH approach, we estimate a time–varying two–factor international asset pricing model for the weekly equity index returns of 16 OECD countries. We find significant time–variation in the exposure (beta) of country equity index returns to the world market index and in the risk–adjusted excess returns (alpha). We then explain these world market betas and alphas using a number of country–specific macroeconomic and financial variables with a panel approach. We find that several variables including imports, exports, inflation, market capitalisation, dividend yields and price–to–book ratios significantly affect a country's exposure to world market risk. Similar conclusions are obtained by using lagged explanatory variables, and thus these variables may be useful as predictors of world market risks. Several variables also significantly impact the risk–adjusted excess returns over this time period. Our results are robust to a number of alternative specifications. We further discuss some economic hypotheses that may explain these relationships.     

Momentum and reversion in risk neutral martingale probabilities

A time homogeneous, purely discontinuous, parsimonous Markov martingale model is proposed for the risk neutral dynamics of equity forward prices. Transition probabilities are in the variance gamma class with spot dependent parameters. Markov chain approximations give access to option prices. The model is estimated on option prices across strike and maturity for five days at a time. Properties of the estimated processes are described via an analysis of return quantiles, momentum functions that measure the response of tail probabilities to such moves. Momentum and reversion are also addressed via the construction of reverse conditional expectations. Term structures for the moments of marginal distributions support a decay in skewness and excess kurtosis with maturity at rates slower than those implied by Lévy processes. Out of sample performance is additionally reported. It is observed that risk neutral dynamics by and large reflect the presence of momentum in numerous probabilities. However, there is some reversion in the upper quantiles of risk neutral return distributions.     

Option overlay strategies

Option overlays on a rebalanced portfolio are designed. Inputs to the design problem are the physical and risk neutral probabilities at the option maturity. They are estimated from time series and option data, respectively. The objective for the design is the bid price of a two price economy modelled as a distorted expectation. The design is monotone increasing in the underlier with a delta constraint. The option positioning is implemented on the S&P 500 index, supposedly rebalanced every 21 days with option positions taken 10 days prior to a rebalance date with a maturity near two months. Option overlays are seen to raise performance measures and reduce drawdowns.     

The Asian economy: current state of play and future prospects

The global financial crisis, the so-called great world recession and recovery have had a serious impact on the Asian and global economies. Together, they managed to engender significant transformation in the contours of both the Asian and global economies. For instance, Asian economies presently depend less on markets in the advanced industrial economies and, due to their enlarging markets, can and did make a substantive contribution to the global recovery. They spearheaded the economic recovery from the global financial crisis. The post-crisis Asian economy is the third pole of the global economy. Significantly, the emerging market economies of Asia did not magnify the external shock this time and performed more like the advanced industrial economies. After a robust recovery in 2010, growth became somewhat subdued in 2011. Projections show that economic performance in the region in 2012 will not be very different from that in 2011 (see WB [World Bank] 2012).     

Growth,integration and trends in equity markets in Asia

The objective of this paper is to examine the growth and development in the Asian financial markets and then focus on equity-market developments in the Asian economies. Asian equity markets have grown exponentially over the last two decades. The trauma of the Asian crisis crystallized transformations in Asia's financial architecture. Equity markets were, in turn, no exceptions. Despite these problems, these markets slowly began expanding again. Attracted by rapid and sustained regional growth in Asia, international institutional investors and fund managers began investing in Asian equities. This inexorably led to an increase in market capitalization. However, growth in the equity markets was far from steady and uniform. This paper has dwelt on the performance of important equity markets in Asia and highlighted the diversity in them.     

FINANCIAL GLOBALISATION: PAST AND PRESENT

This article compares and contrasts the two modern periods of financial globalisation, approximately a century apart. The focal point of the first period was around the turn of the twentieth century, while that of the second was around the turn of the twenty‐first century. Financial globalisation in the latter era was far deeper and there was a remarkable across‐the‐board transformation of the global financial system. An interesting twenty‐first‐century phenomenon is the recent change in direction of capital flows: that is, sizeable sums of capital flowing from non‐industrial countries to advanced industrial countries.     

Costa Rica

Costa Rica is often cited as a model for Central American economies because of its strong democratic institutions, political stability, and open economy. Foreign investment continues to play a pivotal role in fueling economic growth, particularly in the electronics, services, and medical components sectors. A strong record of social investments has resulted in a superior human resource base, a skilled labor pool, and preservation of its biodiversity. The recent formation of the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) provides new opportunities for the country but has also increased the pressures for more openness and privatization, particularly in the telecommunications industry, provoking fresh internal debate about the balance between economic growth and preserving social institutional arrangements. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Pro-poor targeting and accountability of local governments in West Bengal

A commonly alleged pitfall of decentralization is that poverty, socio-economic inequality and lack of political competition allow local elites to capture local governments. This hypothesis is empirically examined using a longitudinal sample of 89 West Bengal villages concerning targeting of credit, agricultural input kits, employment programs and fiscal grants spanning the period 1978–98. Higher poverty, land inequality and low caste composition of the poor was associated with negligible adverse effects on targeting of private goods to the poor within villages, but with lower employment generation out of allotted funds, and significantly lower allocation of resources to the village as a whole. Political competition or literacy levels among the poor were not systematically related to targeting.